2024.04.26 The precious metal stocks are going sideway.
2024.04.19 Gold stocks do not peak. Metal rally next week?
2024.04.12 Contrast to the precious metal, the stocks are not advancing. A sign for peak precious metals?
2024.04.05 Canadian gold stock is very much lagging. Its weekly growth is only 1% while US gold stock index up 5%. But Canadian silver stock up 17%.
2024.03.29 Gold stocks are not as bullish as the metals. Does it mean the metal rally will be finished soon? But silver stocks are much happier.
2024.03.22 The metal stocks are holding steady.
2024.03.15 Gold and silver stocks are pushing higher.
2024.03.08 Gold stocks confirm the metal but silver stock still holding back.
2024.03.01 All metals share seem likely pop up.
2024.02.23 The stocks also go sideway like the metals.
2024.02.16 Precous metal stocks are very level.
2024.02.09 The metals stocks are leaning toward down.
2024.02.02 Very steady. Waiting for the recession then flip?
2024.01.26 The stocks follow the metal. No direction at all.
2024.01.19 Gold stocks are drifting lower slowly but silver takes a quick dive.
2024.01.12 The stocks stay put like the metals.
2024.01.05 Price range bound and volume is lower. Not a good sign for any chance to rally.
2023.12.29 The stock mirror the metal; range bound.
2023.12.22 The stocks follow the metals to stand still.
2023.12.15 CGSI dipped a bit while the US gold stocks are rising. Silver stocks are advancing.
2023.12.08 Range bound across the board.
2023.12.01 Precious metal stocks enjoy the rally within range. No break through. Becareful with the major trends. Both gold and silver stocks are trending downward.
2023.11.24 The precious metal stocks are range bound like the metals.
2023.11.17 All asset classes of precious metals up at least 2 percent. But this change is within the range bound.
2023.11.10 The precious metal stocks sympathisizes with the metals.
2023.11.03 Precious metal stocks indicate the direction is down.
2023.10.27 Stocks do not participate the gold rally.
2023.10.20 The stocks reflect the metals. Up slightly.
2023.10.13 Stocks move up along with the metals.
2023.10.06 The precious metals move a tiny bit higher forecasting a better market next week?
2023.09.29 Precious metal stocks continue to slide.
2023.09.22 Gold stocks are holding position but silver stocks are dropping.
2023.09.15 The stocks are edging higher.
2023.09.08 Precious metal stocks are showing the sign to fall.
2023.09.01 Everyone hopes better fortune tomorrow but will it come?
2023.08.25 Gold stocks are different from the metal. It moves.
2023.08.18 Fed's possibly higher rate scares precious metal/stock investors.
2023.08.11 Precious meetal stocks are just treading water.
2023.08.04 No luck to the precious metal stocks. The next step could go down.
2023.07.28 Stocks like the metals. Treading water.
2023.07.21 Only silver stock has a better strength, gold stock are weakening.
2023.07.14 It seems the world got a face lift but the change has not turnaround.
2023.07.07 Stocks like the metals. No direction. The market seems poise for a hard fall.
2023.06.30 Metal stocks reflect the metals. Holding the position.
2023.06.23 Silver stocks down 4% for last two weeks each. Canadian and American stocks down slightly 1% and 4%. The less damage of Canadian stocks is strange.
2023.06.16 Volume is drying up. Long time to turnaround.
2023.06.09 The metals confirm the market is week.
2023.06.02 Stocks seem to be forecasting positive but the volume is low.
2023.05.26 No love for the precious metal stocks.
2023.05.19 The volume is drying up.
2023.05.12 The stocks forecasting a downward direction which is different from the trend of the metals.
2023.05.05 The stocks follows the metals.
2023.04.28 The precious metal stocks do not support a rally. The key factor is low volume.
2023.04.21 The stocks are also falling. Peak indicators are confirmed.
2023.04.14 Precious metals stocks are confirming the precious metals may be peaking for a down turn because the volume is drying up.
2023.04.07 The indices are breaking up.
2023.03.31 Indeices inching higher and volume expanded significantly on Thursday and Friday. Recoiled for the catapult?
2023.03.24 The stocks follow the precious metal to move up.
2023.03.17 Huge volume on Friday may indicate a rally for the metal stocks continue next week.
2023.03.10 The bear spreads the paws to precious metal stocks.Canadian gold stocks helped by the sky high U$.
2023.03.04 The stock is showing something is cooking. May be a turning point.
2023.02.24 The strength of U$ helps the Canadian precious metal stocks but U$ stocks fall.
2023.02.17 The confirmation continues.
2023.02.10 The stocks confirm the direction of the metals.
2023.02.03 The metal stocks confirm the falling of gold.
2023.01.27 Still treading water. If no positive catalyst, it will go down.
2023.01.20 The stocks are treading water.It can fall. The resistance level could be very low.
2023.01.13 US precious metal stock index plays catch-up while Canadian precious stock index slows down.
2023.01.06 Looks like the precious metal stocks have a break through. Silver stock index gained 10%.
2022.112.30 The stocks are weak. Perhaps January is better.
2022.112.23 The stocks are doing ok.
2022.112.16 All precious metal stocks are pinned down.
2022.112.09 Stocks are following the market going down.
2022.112.02 Stocks are moving up a bit.
2022.11.25 Contrast to the metal, the stocks are in leading the rally.
2022.11.18 Follow the fall of metals, the stocks also dropped.
2022.11.11 The stock follows the rally from last week to another week.
2022.11.04 The stocks tell a positive story which is opposit if the metals.
2022.10.28 Stocks are not doing well. The short term trend is down.
2022.10.21 May be the precious metal rout is close to the end because the stocks are turning.
2022.10.14 All stocks confirm the down trend.
2022.10.07 The stocks continue to edging upward.
2022.09.30 As the metals finding their bottom, the stocks are leading the charge to come back. Silver stock is just rocketted.
2022.09.23 All experienced a very tough week.May be everyone wants to get out.
2022.09.16 The stock follows the metal.
2022.09.09 A slight improvement while USD hit 110. Strange.
2022.09.02 A bloody week for all the asset classes. Precious metal stocks are not immuned.
2022.08.26 Gold stocks treading water like the metal. Silver stocks are doing better.
2022.08.19 Stocks are not doing well.
2022.08.12 Gold stocks continues to improve. Silver stocks are doing not bad but there is no high volume to support the rally.
2022.08.05 Gold stocks holding the breath. Don't know why but silver stock is moving up.
2022.07.29 Slight recovery across the board.
2022.07.22 Strong U$ hurts the American gold stocks but compensates the lost of Canadian gold stocks.
2022.07.15 The stocks are doing a swan dive like the hydrocarbon. The USD is so high that it help the gold stock in C$.
2022.07.08 US gold stocks are down but the strong U$ help the damage of Canadian gold stocks to a less degree.
2022.07.01 Slowly going down.
2022.06.24 Stocks reflect the weak metals.
2022.06.17 Threading water.But on Friday, CGSI2 volume tripled and UGSI volume 50% higher during the week.. CSSI volume triples on Friday. Turning around?
2022.06.10 Precious metals stocks are in a holding position.
2022.06.03 The strength of U$ helps the price of Canadian gold stocks.
2022.05.27 Silver stocks recovered slightly. Gold stocks still weak.
2022.05.20 ?The stock follows the metal going up.
2022.05.13 The stock follows the metal going down.
2022.05.06 The precious metal stocks suffer less than the broad market. Perhaps the higher U$ helps. The value of sales is in U$. When converted to C$, it is higher. But there is an across the board panic sell.
2022.04.29 Stocks follow the metals to go down.
2022.04.22 The metals and the stocks advance cancelled by the fed rate raise.
2022.04.15 The stocks are confirming the advance of the metals.
2022.04.08 The stocks advance in snail pace. The important is OBV trending up.
2022.04.01 Gold stocks perform better. It is gaining a bit. Better precious metals next week?
2022.03.25 Stocks are treading water. Very strange. It is not a positive sign.
2022.03.18 Gold stocks are also submerged. Canadian stocks help by lower C$..
2022.03.11 U$ almost hits 100 so CGSI jumps mor than UGSI.
2022.03.04 The rally is selective. Silver stocks perform better than the gold stocks. American cousin is better than the Canadian.
2022.02.25 Precious metal stocks could not take advantage of the Ukraine situation. It pops then fall flat.
2022.02.18 The US and Canadian gold stocks diverse. US higher Canadian lower. This is ought because U$ is higher.
2022.02.11 The gold stocks are up as the metal. Silver stocks up 10%. Double of gold shares. Silver is more important for weapon than gold but both are needed. Is war coming?
2022.02.04 Stocks also up this week.
2022.01.28 The stock confirm the metal. Not a good sign when both go down. However, it is limited to gold/silver stock. Many still going strong.
2022.01.21 Gold stocks rise slowly. The winner is silver stock.
2022.01.14 Metal stocks confirm with precious metal even Thursday and Friday collapse. It is very much depending on the market. The market is very negative.
2022.01.07 The Fed rate hike may finish this rally.
2021.12.31 The stock confirming the metal. The rally may be slow but it has leg. We also have to keep an eye on silver.
2021.12.24 The advance continues. Metals should be doing OK next week which is very short.
2021.12.17 The precious metal stocks advance nicely. This could be the sign for higher precious metals.
2021.12.10 A directionless week. Many goes down but some singlton doing well. Canadian stocks benefitted from lower C$.
2021.12.03 ?The stocks are falling. The volume are up. It could be close to the bottom. But the roll of precious metal and precious metal stock could not long be safe heaven. Or, the papa bear is coming. Nothing is spared.
2021.11.26 Stocks confirm the metals. Next week could be difficult.
2021.11.19 The indices pulled back. May tell the precious metals will not move up further.
2021.11.12 Rally materialized. Silver stocks have a very good lift.
2021.11.05 The stocks are indicating a rally is coming.
2021.10.29 Not a happy week.
2021.10.22 Shares reflect the near future will not go up or too much.
2021.10.15 The stocks confirm the metal rally is planning a return.
2021.10.08 USD falls a bit. So UGSI is stabule but CGSI is up.
2021.10.01 Still bad for the stocks.
2021.09.24 No improvement.
2021.09.17 The higher USD makes CGSI holding out. But in general precious metals are down.
2021.09.10 The stock confirms the metals that up have to wait.
2021.09.03 ?Precious metals holding well to create the base.
2021.08.27 The precious metal stocks confirm the bottom of the metals.
2021.08.20 The gold stock indices confirm metals' down trend.
2021.08.13 The stock confirms the metal that the fall has not finished yet. May be end of September.
2021.08.06 Indices confirm the down trend of metals.
2021.07.30 All metal indices move up. Rotation of asset?
2021.07.23 Stock confirms metals is at or over the peak.
2021.07.16 Stock market shows no direction. If there is a hint, it will be down.
2021.07.09 U$ falls a bit but why the gold stock rises?
2021.07.02 Stocks are holding. Not much movement.
2021.06.25 The stocks hold the bottom. Waiting for rally after U$ stabilized?
2021.06.18 The stock follows the metal. Friday has no sign of recovery. The volume is high. Capitulation is the sign of close to bottom.
2021.06.11 Metal stocks follow the precious metals. Slow action.
2021.06.04 While the gold stocks are very shy from any action. Silver stocks are taking some temptation to break-up.
2021.05.28 Gold stocks are taking a breath but silver stocks press on hard.
2021.05.21 Gold and silver stocks are advancing. Silver stocks are gone crazy again. Up almost 6%. It is movement of money from one sector to another. Could be the after-shock from the crypto.
2021.05.14 This is a very boring week. Nothing moves.
2021.05.07 Gold and silver stocks have another great week,
2021.04.30 Gold stocks has a great week.
2021.04.23 The rally momentum is weakening.
2021.04.16 Rally continues but volume is a concern because it does not run up.
2021.04.09 Although the indices want to rally but there is no volume to support it.
2021.04.02 Metal stocks seems reversing the falling trend. They are advancing.
2021.03.26 Metal stocks are sinking. The metals may take a long time to recover.
2021.03.19 Stocks confirming the metal rally. Let's see if the yellow metal can break out U$2,000. This will start a new leg of precious metals rally.
2021.03.05 Precious metals disagree with the metals. It is bottoming.
2021.02.26 Gold stocks fell but silver stocks held on and virtually did not move. Is there a message hidden?
2021.02.19 Volume of CGSI2 has low volume but UGSI volume increasing. It is not the bottom yet until the volume leaps up.
2021.02.12 Silver stocks confirm silver's price. Gold stock gets weaker.
2021.02.05 Metals may treading water but stocks are sinking bad.
2021.01.29 Gold stock index confirms dull performance of gold. Silver stock is on fire.
2021.01.22 Stock is doing better than metal, slightly.
2021.01.15 Stocks confirm the down trend.
2021.01.08 US gold stocks hold but Canadian gold stocks fall while USD falls. Strange.
2020.12.31 The gold indices are on the up trend but silver stock index has a down signal. This is the holiday season. Next week will be the proper trend.
2020.12.24 Waiting for the volume to break up. If volume continues to wither, rally can become collapse.
2020.12.18 All precious stock indices has huge volume on Friday to confirm the bottom has been reached.
2020.12.11 It is base building. The sign we are looking for is volume.
2020.12.04 Stock confirms the turnaround of metals.
2020.11.27 There are bottom indicator. Very aggressive falling for last couple of weeks.
2020.11.20 Stock follws the metals to go down.
2020.11.06 Strong precious metal stocks rally. Bad other sectors?
2020.10.30 May be close but no cigar. The consolidation will end or accelerated by the result of the American election.
2020.10.23 Stock retreated. Some due to the lower production as the result of COVID-19 measures. This can last until next spring.
2020.10.16 The correction may be ended but it is not soaring time.
2020.10.09 The correction finally ended.
2020.10.02 The correction almost ended. Next week. It may turn up. Sliver stocks is up already. Gold stocks are being hammered because of no direction. (low volume).
2020.09.25 The correction may push to the low point on Wednesday then recovered.
2020.09.18 The correction may finish. The stock indices have high volume on Friday.
2020.09.11 The correction tried to extend but being pinned down.
2020.08.28 The correction is short lived. Stocks are leading the rebound.
2020.08.21 The correction may be short lived. gold stock indices hold up. Silver stocks pulled back a bit.
2020.08.14 The correction finally came. The grinding can continue until more flooding of money.
2020.08.07 The silver stock holding well. Gold stock leads the retreat. Short term consolication?
2020.07.31 The silver stock explosion halted but gold stock explodes this week.
2020.07.24 The silver stock explodes.Two weeks ago, CSSI jumped 10%. This week jumps 15%. Only Tesla can compare. Gold stocks are doing fine but not as crazy.
Gold stocks are peaked but silver stocks pushes on. Looking back, gold stock price should be higher because the metal is doing better. May be we should hold metal rather than stock. Silver stock has a high volume spike at last dip. More to go?
2020.07.10 The stocks wild fire spread further. Silver metal is not as excite as the silver stock.Why?
2020.07.03 The stocks are on fire. Leading the metal? Gold wil break up above U$1,800?
2020.06.26 The stocks on both boundary are in sync. All precious metal stocks are advancing. It confirms the precious metals rally.
2020.06.19 The stocks are different between the Canadian and American. Canadian moves stronger and the volume is exceptional. American stocks are weaker and less high volume. Silver stocks are weaken.
2020.06.12 The metals and the stocks now sync towards downside. The market is flooded with money. It is inflationary. But the precious metals and stocks are not rising. Something is hiding.
2020.06.05 You counts a tumble when it tubles.Gold stock dives but not much because of the high U$. But U$ gold stocks dive too. The OBV is not reliable this week because it comes down. It is consistent with the index but does not tell the future.
2020.05.29 Retreated continues. The important message is 3-4 times daily volume on Friday. OBV also takes off.
2020.05.22 Retreated along with the metals.
2020.05.15 A rotation to precious metal stocks pushes the index.
2020.05.08 A rally follows a rally. The rally has momentum.
2020.05.01 A rally follows an retreat. It is about time.
2020.04.24 A rally follows another rally.
2020.04.17 A rally continued. U$ gold stocks are so low that the index fluctuation become hugh.
2020.04.10 A rally of more thatn 10%.
2020.04.03 Ron Meisel says look at the price average. I only have the 200 but no 100 and no 34 and no 10. If th 100, 34 and 10 MA turn up, it will take months to repair.
2020.03.27 Gold stocks leading the metals.
2020.03.20 Gold stocks up a bit CGSI and UGSI confirm each other. It is fortified by the silver stock index CSSI. After falling 31 percent last week, it rebounds 13%. Hope this is not a dead cat rebounce but highly probable.
2020.03.13 Margin clerk does it again. If you think silver can be more profitable, watch out. It is not.
2020.03.06 Volume tells the story. Actually the rally of metals. The stocks were pulled down by the margin call.
2020.02.28 Precious metal stock falls because of the performance last 6 months. 200 MV broke. Volume is high. Bottom is near but not close. No indicator for bottom yet.
2020.02.21 Precious metal and stock confirm each other. Lift off.
2020.02.14 Precious metals stocks advance except UGSI while USD is at high 99.11. It is very confusing so the metals should be back on the saddle.
2020.02.07 Stocks retreat. Precious metal stocks retreat. A lot of bear flavour.
2020.01.31 Stocks are also sold during the market down. Some individual contriue to make all time high such as Franco Nevada. But many pulled back due to the market situation. This is very much contradict the believe stock market bad will encourage asset moves to precious metals.
2020.01.24 Stocks are holding the place. Waiting for the decision of the market. But silver stocks jump the gun already. Off it is up 2% after more than 5% of consolidation.
2020.01.17 Stocks are retreating but has not cross below 200MA.
2020.01.10 It is slowing down, more and more. Does it mean the precious metals have been peaked? Should we pull the precious metal investment?
2020.01.03 It is slowing down. Silver stock is retreating. When the metals advances and the stock slows down. We may approach the peak.
2019.12.27 The stocks are on fire. They are up at least double of the metal. The stock leads the metal. The DJIA continues to rise. Does it mean inflation is uncontrallable reflected on stock price, precious metal or not?
2019.12.20 The turnaround failed to continue.
2019.12.13 The turnaround has been confirmed. The OBV is pointed up. The missing indicator is volume. We need to see high bottom buy volume.
2019.12.06 The stocks start to turn around.
2019.11.29 On Monday, Kirland's acquisition of Detour forced the KL price dropped 17% which dragged down the CGSI2 by 10%. Since then CGSI2 climbs back. This will confirm the advance of the gold price. Silver has gone crazy high.
2019.11.22 The gold stocks rises very obvious but the silver stocks stop. Gold stocks may continue to rise but silver stocks will take a break.
2019.11.15 The stock confirming it is at or near the bottom. The rebounce is very obvious, especially silver.
2019.11.08 The stock confirms the metal's down trend. It will take very good financial result to stay above water. Some seasoned gold producers dropped like a stone and some hold up steadily. The following are a few of their weekly change from last week: Kinross -13%, Newmont -3%, Barrack -3%, Eldorado -13%, IAM Gold -9%,
2019.11.01 The strong up movement continue.If this is a sign, precious metals and oil will move up.
2019.10.25 A strong rebounds except Canadian gold stock.Silver stock is doing very well. Last two weeks went up 10%. American gold stock second, it is up almost 8%, Canadian gold stock only break even for last two weeks.
2019.10.11 The index shows the near term is down and down. We also need to judge it fairly. The rally was huge. The retrace has not been 50% yet. It is still optimistic.
2019.10.04 The index is either moves up or slightly level. The important is OBV is flipping upward.
2019.09.27 The stocks may be bullied by the market. They may sympathize the metals to come down.
2019.09.20 Like the metals, the stocks of gold up and silver down. The UGSI and CGSI has 200% and 300% 200 days volume. This is very real. It is a firm confirmation of bottom. We should see the gold up and silver level next week.
2019.09.13 MThe stock is retreating. Consider the strength of the gold stocks, it deserves a retreat. No cretical level has been breached.
2019.09.06 Metal stocks is off from the peak about 10%. Will it be helpful for the bull? The volume is high this week. A possible of top sell. Just be careful.
2019.08.30 Metal stock continue on the strong journey. Silver stock index is far more stronger than the gold stock index. The gold stock index is approaching to the 2010 high. If it better than that level, it will push the precious metals even higher to pass the U$1,800. One strong evident is the strong OBV.
2019.08.23 Metal stocks are very strong. Silver stock index jumped 174 point on Friday and reached 10M shares. Pumping continue.
2019.08.09 Metal stocks are on fire. They are ploughing forward. Will this mean the metals will rally again next week?
2019.08.02 Metal stocks are not equal. The silver stocks follow the metal to lower. Gold stocks track the metal and advance well. CGSI2 has been making weekly gain since May 31, 2019. The rest of the year, metals can be very diverge and causing gold stock moves forward while other lower which is rare. Or gold stocks will lower following the other precious metals stocks.Can the non-gold stocks following the market? If the market falls, gold stocks cannot be exempted.
2019.07.26 Momentum evaporated. This confirms the hesitation of the metals. One should pay attention to silver stocks. It is going strong.
2019.07.19 Volume has a spike across the board for all indices. This week, gold indices are up 7-8% but silver stock index up 21% with high volume on Friday. This is a strong confirming of metals rally although the silver metal only up 6% this week.
2019.07.12 Volume up a bit so does the indices.
2019.07.05 No volume no rally.
2019.06.28 The spike of volume subsided. The momentum is weaken. This confirms the peaking but it does not mean the peak finishes. It just does not advance. The stock and the metal have to confirm. Now they are not. A lot of hesitation.
2019.06.21 The spike of the volume demonstrated the characteristics of bottom buy for all indices. A strong momentum forward.
2019.06.07 The up trend continus confirming the metal.
2019.05.31 It is an all round up. Rather than a safe heaven, it is asset allocation. The volume is not up seriously but OBV and price are up.
2019.05.24 It is an all round down. It is minute so just noise but it does not say bottom out.
2019.05.17 While the metals continue to fall, the indices have a slight rally. We may be close to the bottom.
2019.05.10 Stocks do not have confident to rally which will keep the metals low. sooner or later.
2019.05.03 Stocks are falling and is not bottom yet.
2019.04.26 Gold stocks are rising but not CGSI2 because the C$ is falling? But UGSI is rising so does CSSI. CGSI2 is losing the public's favour.
2019.04.19 It is the confusing time and the stocks are on the cycle.
2019.04.12 The stocks are moving down but slightly. Just fluctuation.
2019.04.05 The US stock is up. Canadian stock loses because C$ gain. The strong volume could spell end of bottom. Actually the US stocks are rissing SLOWLY. The Canadian cousins are actually rises ahead.
2019.03.29 Individual precious metal stocks continue to break all time high. Wheaton Precious Metal is the best example. Franco Navada also. EDO regains some colour but most are falling that indicate a weak future. This could also imply weak precious metals.
2019.03.22 Gold stock volume is resumed to normal this Friday on the Canadian side but not the American. OBV is tittering. Even after Fed's no interest raise for this year could not stimulte gold. It may start a decline unless catalyst happens. Silver stock really has a good time. It is up 4% but the volume is not strong.
2019.03.15 Volume is abnormally high on Friday. CGSI2 is four time of the 200 VA. UGSI and CSSI are double. This points to a major event. Hope this is the bottom buy.
2019.03.08 The indices hold and get a small gain. This confirms the rally is intact. The volume is slightly higher than this Friday than last Friday. Good support indicator.
2019.03.01 All precisou metal stocks are in sympathy of gold and silver dipped comparable percentage. Gold and silver stock indices may need a correction after 40% gain but both does not have a down turn signal. If it does not recover next week, sell time.
2019.02.22 All precisou metal stocks are on fire.
2019.02.15 US precious metal stocks continues to lower because of unknown reason. Canadian precious metal stocks continue to rally even USD is just slightly higher.
2019.02.08 The weakness of C$ pushes up the Canadian gold and silver stocks. U$ gold stocks are conslidated a bit.
2019.02.01 The metal contirms the stock and the stock confirm th emetal. It is rally. How long and what will be the black swan?
2019.01.25 The rally for stock indices is about 5%. This is strong. Combining with the rally of gold, both confirm each other. Last week, USD falls and precious metals fall too. USD continues to fall but precious metals rally so all synchronize to rally.
2019.01.18 TFirst, there is the marriage of Barrack and Ranggold. Second there is the proposal of Newmont and Goldcorp. Both could not stablize the gold stock market. It is drifting down. If so, the gold price will not be rally soon. Perhaps, palladium producers are a better deal. However, consider it has the 400 to 1 reverse split in August 10, 2015, not sure it is a good move down the road.
2019.01.11 The up trend may be off a bit to show some weakness but no down turn indicator. If it does, the metals' weakness is confirmed.
2019.01.04 The up trend maintans. Metals and stocks will move up but individual performance will not be same.
2018.12.28 The trend is on the upside. Rally continues. The great Friday volume spike happens the second week for CGSI2. UGSI volume this Friday is not as crazy as last week but also higher than the average. Silver index does not have the volume spike but it continues to rally. Remember this week has only 3 trading days for Canadian stocks and 4 trading days for American stocks. This performance is impressible.
2018.12.21 The trend is revsersed this week. It confirms with the rising metals.
2018.12.14 Gold stock indices drops. Silver stock index holds up.
2018.12.07 A good recovery of precious metal stock. This confirms a longer rally of precious metals. But why when USD is rising too?
2018.11.30 Stocks continues to fall. The trend is very strong downward.
2018.11.23 Stocks confirm metals' down trend.
2018.11.16 Indices are turning around. We may have seen a lift off. However, something cannot explain. Silver stock index is not turning around.
2018.11.09 There are thumbs down across the board. No luck in November will mean try next February.
2018.11.02 There is no breakup. Volume may be bettter but at the end, the American and Canadian stocks do not confirm. Since the C$ raised interest so gold price is cheapter so thus the gold stocks will be traded down. No turning point reached.
2018.10.26 Stocks fall this week. This is not a good sign. UGSI has very heavy trading. The gold stocks may fall in sympathy with tbe market. Bear market everyone will lose.
2018.10.19 Stocks up continues. There is a higher chance to see the metal to break up.
2018.10.12 Stocks up, volume up. Metal should be up.
2018.10.05 Gold stocks are budding up. Silver stocks are lagging as usual.
2018.09.28 Bottoming is it seems to be but no volume to support the bottom.
2018.09.21 Metal stocks have been improved. US gold stocks leading but Canadian is lagging. With a strong USD why Canadian gold stock is retreating. The US gold stock has a very strong volum on Friday. It is double of the average. This is a strong indicator. In September 2008, the turnaround of the precious metal had such strong volume at the bottom. If the volume persist, we can see the index to climb. Will this exceed the height in 2011? It would be an interesting question.
2018.09.14 Metal stock dive continues.
2018.09.07 Metal may be on a ledge but the stock is doing a swan dive.
2018.08.31 Sink, Sink Sink is the name of the song. The falling speed has reduced. Unless there is bottom buy, hard to determine the bottom.
2018.08.24 Gold stocks slightly recover. Don't know why C$ stocks are not doing well. U$ stocks reover and led by silver stocks which really moves. Perhaps it is close to the end of fall.
2018.08.10 No obvious reason for gold stock to be down but many making 52 weeks low. Silver stocks may be slightly better but is plunging.
2018.08.03 Falling fronts is limited to gold stocks. Silver stocks has a 1.4% gain this week although it has been very volatile. The volume does not support the bottom. The rally could be short term.
2018.07.27 Falling fronts continue.
2018.07.20 All fronts are lost. Silver stocks suffer a 9% down. It is bear market.
2018.07.13 Fall resumes but the volume is not respectful.
2018.07.06 Recovery really happens. All indices stop falling.
2018.06.29 Both are saying recovery is coming because the indices are falling. Silver has a 5% weekly gain.
2018.06.22 The precious metals stocks are split. Gold stocks say recovery is coming but silver stock say good time ahead.
2018.06.15 The stocks do not agree with the metals. No confirmation of down. So the metals is just volatile. It says good time ahead.
2018.06.08 It may be confirming metals' pancake week but it has a downward tone.
2018.06.01 Stock confirms the boring week. The puzzle in hand is whether this is the top or the bottom.
2018.05.25 Gold and silver stocks confirms the up movement of the metal. May be it is the bottom of the bottom.
2018.05.18 Gold stocks confirm metals to go down but silver stocks are telling a up story.
2018.05.11 No volume, no rally.
2018.05.04 Volume so low that indicates interest of precious metal stocks is real low. It will not go anywhere.
2018.04.28 Volume still low. The cycle is definitely on the weak part. It can take decade to resume the excitement.
2018.04.20 Volume does not confirm the up trend.
2018.04.13 The index is leading up. There may be turning but volume is low.
2018.04.06 Stock for the gold is improving. Silver stock is not. Next week, gold could have a good chance to break up.
2018.03.30 Stock indices sliding. No bottom for the stock and also confirm no breakup for the metals.
2018.03.23 Stock indicates bottoming. OBV and volume are not confirming but brewing.
2018.03.16 Canadian precious metal stocks show some stablization but UGSI is not that lucky. Down trend persists.
2018.03.09 Other than silver stocks, no confirmed up but down. Silver stock index is just fluttering. Nothing is changing.
2018.03.02 Silver stock confirms that not much is happening.
2018.02.23 Precious metal stocks falls again. The bottom may be in but it is not out.
2018.02.16 It is finally turning around by the stocks. It is a strong but not very strong sign because the volume is still not there yet.
2018.02.09 Gold stocks weakness continue to fall. No turnaround soon.
2018.02.02 Gold stocks continue the slide. Stock still leads the metal. Until the stock turnaround, metal will not.
2018.01.26 Gold stock just hanging there not improving. Silver stock is deteriorating. If stock leads the metal, big rally is not in the near future.
2018.01.19 American stock index is maintaining up position but the Canadian gold stock index remains not turnaround. The volume also does not support the gold store turning around. Silver stocks are maintenaning the upward trend but OBV has little help. It may take awhile to confirm the precious metal breakup.
2018.01.12 The stock indices not strongly supporting the metals.
2018.01.05 The nebulous situation extends. Volume shows low interest.
2017.12.29 No one can say the precious metal stocks are a clear winner. The general trend of sliding continue with weak volume. This is it. What is next year?
2017.12.22 The gold stock indices confirms the gold non-down movement but silver index remains down.
2017.12.15 The volume rises. The indices rise. It may be the bottom. Let see the confirmation next week.
2017.12.08 The stock confirms the weakness of the metal. The volume is average. No bottom buy yet.
2017.12.01 The slide continues. The volume picks up a bit but OBV is down trending except the UGSI. Someone accumulating?
2017.11.24 Alot of noise but no real direction. Continuing like this will create consolidation pressure.
2017.11.17 The Canadian index confirm the gold's consolidation pattern. The American index reflect the up trend. What a diversification. Silver remains on up trend.
2017.11.10 The stocks starts to leveling but no indicator of bottoming out.
2017.11.03 The stocks continue to fall. OBV continues to dive. No end in sight.
2017.10.27 The stocks is not treading water. It dives.
2017.10.20 The stocks are treading water may be a top is forming and rolling over.
2017.10.13 Indeed, the gold is up and both gold indices go up but not the silver stock index. Is it lagging?
2017.10.06 The indices say its time to rally. Does it?
2017.09..29 The indices come down and volume shrinks. This confirms the down draft.
2017.09..22 Precious metal stocks diversify. Silver holds but gold falls. But silver cannot hold if gold dives. So we are going to see the consolidation of the precious metal stocks for the next 3 to four months. One should separate the sheep and the dog. The dog will not follow the sheep. It is not all precious metal stocks will fall or rally. Some will do something different. Homework is mandatory for the investors.
2017.09..15 Gold stock confirms the down trend but silver stock still holding like the metal. Platinum was catching up but finally failed to hold above U$1,000. The internal of precious metals have fade. Another turnaround may happen in December. If U$ is needed, precious metal could sink then we can see gold shoots down below U$1,300.
2017.09..08 Canadian gold stock is remaining moving upward inch by inch while the American stocks are move by foot since it has an early recovery. Canaidan stocks are bottoming because the USD making the Canadian stocks lower. If Canadian dollar rally, the stock will not doing well. The trading becomes very complicated since you have to factor in the FX. It is hard to make money. Silver stock is doing better. It is out of the bottom and climbing.
2017.09..01 It has been cautiously volatile. It may seem the up trend is set but the volume tells another story. The volume is not high. It is the speculative buying phase. No solid ground for bottom.
2017.08.25 While the metails are pondering but the stocks are marching high. Should the stock leads the metal, the metal has a chance to break up.
2017.08.18 Precious stock indices are down. This does not confirm the metals up movement. The turmoil could be getting more violent.
2017.08.11 UGSI and CGSI2 are both above the 200MV. This is a good sign. However, UGSI has been on the up direction for 160 days but CGSI2 is in down trend. Both are not confirming each other. This is no hint on what the precious metal stocks are going.
2017.08.04 The fall of USD continues failed to lift the precious metal stocks. It should be the sign that precious metals are falling.
2017.07.28 The fall of USD drags down the C$ precious metal indices.
2017.07.21 Metals confirm the stock and the stock confirms the metal.
2017.07.14 This week ends up higher across the board. Can it last?
2017.07.07 More down ferociously.
2017.06.30 Down trend continues.
2017.06.23 Stock indices are up but there are no bottom signal. I read this as dead cat rebound until confirmation is out.
2017.06.16 Stocks fall through the bottom. If stock leads metal, metals will be down for a long while.
2017.06.09 Stocks are bottoming. Only silver stock index losts a few points. There may be a few weeks of bottoming time.
2017.06.02 Stocks are not doing well outside United states because U$ is slipping. If the US gold stocks tell the story, USD will continue to sink. Canadian gold/silver stocks will not move up yet.
2017.05.26 Indices have a direction this week. It is down. The selling pressure is high but reduced on Friday but there is no bottom buy yet. OBV shows small positive sign but not strong enough to set a direction.
2017.05.19 Indices are not going anywhere. No direction.
2017.05.12 Precious metal stock indices rally solid. Metals could follows.
2017.05.05 Gold stock indices are continuing to fall but silver stock has a unconfirmed bottom. Gold stocks' OBV are not falling through with the price. Silver stocks' OBV is actually much less than the steep silver metal price fall. In the short term, the gold stocks may slowing down the fall and the bottom may not be near. Silver stocks can seek the support in short term. If it holds again silver hit the bottom of the trading channel and goes up. Silver stocks may be safe in short term but the head and shoulder form is not a good sign until we can break above the 2,470 level because it is a small double top.
2017.04.28 Unanimously agree down trend. How long and how deep?
2017.04.21 All indices are down.This confirmed with the metals. The question is how far to go down. It is a range bound, it will be 15%. The most important point is UGSI does not cross above the 200MA. This is not a good sign.
2017.04.14 Stocks are doing very well this week. The rally continues with a steady pace which is good for a long lasting rally.
2017.04.07 Canadian gold stocks are turning up unwillingly while the American cousin continues the rally. Silver stocks are up and up.
2017.03.31 Gold stocks change from not good to holding still. Silver stocks follow silver to move up slightly.
2017.03.24 Action is not good. The stocks recover during the second half of the week but just weakly.
2017.03.17 Huge volumeon Friday. This could be the bottom buy for gold stocks. Gold stocks are up but silver stocks are down. Silver lagging?
2017.03.10 Another week of down but the trend slowing down.
2017.03.04 Correction continues into the third week.
2017.02.24 The indices move in reverse direction of metals. It is a really puzzle. Is index leading the metal? Or this is exception case?
2017.02.17 There is mild pull back on the stocks. Gold stock indices' OBV is drifting down but CSSI is up. The metals may be entering correction.
2017.02.10 Canadian precious metal stocks are on turbo drive. CGSI2 has a considerable number of juniors which shows they are benefit from the more stable above U$1,100 gold price because their profit is multiplied when the profit kicks in. UGSI still shows good performance but nothing compare with silver. This could be the sign for stronger metal price.
2017.02.03 Indices are on fire. They continue to lead the metals upward.
2017.01.27 Indices are virtually no change. The volume from previous high is much higher than the Friday. The OBV is turning slightly positive. The up trend seems intact.
2017.01.20 The 200MA still a target to be.
2017.01.13 Index getting higher and approaching the 200MA.It is persistantly moving up. Metals follows the stocks.
2017.01.06 The index continues to lead the metal. May be the bottom is seen.
2016.12.30 There is another divergence. Stocks are more positive and showing more bottom buying. Is it due to tax or others. It is hard to tell. The rally of the stocks prove to be different to the metals behavior. Is there light at the end of the tunnel? Remember no 200MA is broken above. The rally could be a dead cat rebounce.
2016.12.23 Gold stocks are turning up despite of the yellow metal stubbornly moving down. After last week's huge Friday volume, the sell seems subsided. But silver stocks are just week.
2016.12.16 Both gold indices rebounded with huge volume. Is it really rebound or just an interlude? CSSI is very clear it is capitulation to dive. There is always brave people to show off the swan dive. Sometime it is a beautiful technique but sometime it can be suicide. Buying into the market can be tricky and risky.
2016.12.09 If stock leads the metal, there is no doubt that the metal will fall because all precious metal stocks lower this week.Opprtunity may return next January.
2016.12.02 The stocks may be leading the rebound. There is bottom buy high volume. Has it turned around or it is just the market maker selling before the big fall?
2016.11.25 Stock indice is leading the fall. There may be some dead cat rebound but ther is no turnaround yet. Hang on the hat.
2016.11.18 It is strange that US gold stock and silver stock indice rally because it had a huge jump during the middle of the week but the canadian gold stock falls. Canadian gold stocks should move higher because of FX. Whatever moves up, changes direction after Tuesday. The change of direction is important.
2016.11.11 Precious metal stocks are slaughtered with minimum of 10% down. Does this mean the Fed rate will be up more rapid? The other point to consider is that the base metal producer are up considerably, e.g. copper and iron. Does it imply construction projects will be dropping down from the helicopter?
2016.11.04 This is a up week.There is no deterministic direction for gold stock. Silver stock is very exciting.
2016.10.28 Precious metal stocks has been leading truefully for a long time. It is lowering this week. Metal can be falling.
2016.10.21 Both precious metal indices are up. It is also up strong. But there is no bottom buy volume. Any investment has to be cautious.
2016.10.14 It is off from the peak but have we hit the bottom. The peak has major sell off so we have to wait for the major bottom buy. No such buy is seen yet.
2016.10.07 Without question, the high volume from the previous weeks is the rolling over of the gold and silver stocks. Volume is high and pressure is high. Friday silver stocks have some release but it could be just temporary to balance the book for the shorties and get some pennies to buy a few turkey or something for the long weekend. The whol down trend is so heavy that every long is hoping for the best.
2016.09.30 The metal confirms the stock and the stock confirms the metal. It is a vicious circle. Who is going to break out first? The vlume has to move first. It has been quiet for two weeks now.
2016.09.23 At the end of week, it seems gold stocks are rising but silver stocks are not engaging the party. But looking at the charts, silver still up 1.3% by the week and broke the down trend of last week's -3.4%. Silver stocks has been on a consolidation for last 6 weeks or so while the gold stocks are leading the recovery. The OBV are rising at the beginning of the week but sell orders rolled out on Thursday and Friday. If the stock leads the metal, next week will be metal down week.
2016.09.16 The main feature of this week displays on Friday. It is high volume. The volume is double of what other day's average as UGSI and CSSI fall. Only CGSI2 gains. It seems either hitting a bottom or get me out of here. It is not the suicidal exit that dumps at any price. it is fall and volume picks up. Is the bottom close?
2016.09.09 Gold stocks are very active during the whole week. At the end, it is down. The silver stock indice was up slightly and the OBV and the trend reamins up. The fight is heavy. By stander could be kill by just being their.
2016.09.02 Gold stocks do confirm the bottom out. CGSI2 up 2.4% and UGSI up 0.81%. The C$ stocks have such a high beta to the American cousin. Of course, if my indices are not confirm by other gold index, it is not very persuasive. XAU up 0.8% and HUI is up 0.7%. UGSI is just as legitimate as the bell weathered indices. Metal confirm stock and stock lead metal. Next week could have firework. CGSI2's OBV was up last week and it continues to go higher. UGSI's OBV are confirming. All good signs. CSSI has some tough time. The correction starts from Aug 4. It continues to last week. The index rebounds on Thursday and Friday with a total of 1.7% to signal a change of trend. This week's Monday still has the positive momentum but beaten down on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday, the bull won. The bull's win before the week end is important hint of strong resistance. It also tell us that the road to Damascus is not a straight road.
2016.08.26 Gold stocks are getting firmer on Thursday and Friday. Silver becomes solid on Thursday and Friday. The most important is the volume spiked. Some sign of bottom.
2016.08.19 Gold stocks are corrected. CGSI2 is only dowy by 1% but UGSI is down by 5%. Is this enough after a rally of over 100% in the last 12 months. This may not be enough. Silver stocks CSSI just corrected by 10% this week after stellar performance of over 300% gain since January 2016. The correction could be 25% or more.
2016.08.12 Gold stock indices are up ever slightly this week. This may be the first sign of recovering. Silver stocks are gaining this week too. Can we have the storm behind our back. Although the indices rise but the indicators do not change direction. Too early to say?
2016.08.05 Gold stock indices are impacted by the fall of the gold price on Friday. All dropped a bit. CSSI cannot be exception. All three indices flag peak. It may be temporary peak.
2016.07.29 A very strong week for the indices. Except Monday, the rest of the week is up and up. All go up 6+% which is a strong recovery. Both HUI and XAU also up 6%. All these indices confirming each other that the rally of the precious metal stocks is restarted. The question is can the stock rises without the support of higher metal price?
2016.07.22 Another week of consolidation. Gold stocks pulling back and is not slowing down. Silver stocks has a bottom signal on Friday. Both are down about 10% and it can be time to finish the healthy correction.
2016.07.15 This is a peak or just an interlude. It is alarming to many that silver pulls back. This create a lot of fear that considers a peak may be reached. Silver stock continues to climb even there was as silver correction. Gold is a different story.
2016.07.08 SThursday this week is very bad for the Canadian precious metal stocks. There is a 2-3% pullback. Silver stock regains more than lost but gold stock has not recovered everything. The American cousin does differently. It just moves up. These precious metal indices are locomotive with unlimited fuel.It may move slow but does not slow down much.
2016.07.01 Silver stocks continue to be the hero but gold stocks are not too far behind.
2016.06.24 The traditon of spiked volume on Friday continued but not as high as last week. The continued climbing OBV is a strong indicator of precious metal bull market. Not a single bit of doubt and not weakening. There is only period of extra strength.
2016.06.17 There are many signs of topping, such as top selling and pull back. The indices pull back this week but the retreat is not huge. If the metal can hold the gain, next week will have a lot of stock short covering that will blow the lid off. However the high volume of recent period may just means the shorties have balanced the book. The rally of precious metal stocks will be either finish or level out in next month or so until BRExit is over. Only the metal is the real stuff.
2016.06.10 The indices action remain strong but weaker. The volume starts to lower.The lower volume drives down the price when the mass public believes the peak has reached. On Friday, the safe harbour thinking showing that leads to the index pullback. Week over week indices still advancing but the level is not as franatic. It is subsided. This two months run is very impressive. UGSI up 166%. CGSI2 up 107% and the CSSI up 164%. It is about time to take a breath to build some base.
2016.06.03 With the help of the precious metal rebounce, the precious metal stock indices rally by 10+ this week. Does this mean the metal correction is over? Or at least it is not continue to fall?
2016.05.27 The precious metal stocks leading the fall since last week. This week the fall is hard. All by 10%. Is it because of the June Fed raise. So this is what they say until they change the tune. Gold did not take hold above U$1,270 and precious metal stocks diserve a rest. Hope this is just a minor correction. The shortie can exorberate the fear of the June Fed rate hike to make a avalache. Next week will be interesting.
2016.05.20 The gold stock indices dip. Canadian side is only 0.2% but the American side is about 3%. Canadian index is not responding to the bigger dip of the yellow metal. But the American cousin is very sympathy with the metal. Silver is weaken but the stock index is higher by 5% and volume is strong. Does this mean silver will plough ahead and gold is sitting in the box?
2016.05.13 Yes. The indices are down, more less. UGSI is down by 3 points but CGSI2 is actually up by 1 point. The volume on Friday exceeds the average. This could be the peak. The MACD and RSI tell us both indices are really overbought.CSSI is out of place because it ends up this week. The more interesting feature is the OBV for CSSI turns up while the gold stock index do not turn up.
2016.05.06 The recious metal stock indices are virtually standstill although there was some big movement during the week. Is this topping? The stocks response very well for the gold and silver minipush.
2016.04.29 All three indices show the same features: average volume pop, last day volume exceeds the average volume and big weekly gain. The OBV has a deep-deep V recovery. The gold to stock index ratio falls like a stone. These a strong indicator for the parabolic phase of the rally which can be long and can be short. Judging the rally of the gold price being pushed by the stock indices and now the stock indices pushed by the metal, we have to watch the RSI and MACD for any turnaournd. The strong OBV is a strong bottom sign. Everything is rosy.
2016.04.22 The stocks are so carrys away that it makes the metal eat dust. This is another fantastic week for the stock making the gold to stock ratio continue to fall from the cliff. The very important evidant of the parabolic movement is the upward OBV.
2016.04.15 Despite the hesitation of gold, the gold stocks advances. The silver stocks are also strongly moving up. Technically, silver stock is on the up trend. Gold stock is on the down trend. The up trend is not confirmed until the P&F points up.
2016.04.08 The precious metal stocks are unstoppable. Gold stocks up 8% and the silver stock up 5%. The most important is the volume continue to rise when the price is up. This is very exciting. The break up is witnessed. The momentum will continue into next week. If the stock leads the metal, the metal will rally fast next week. Will U$ comes down?
2016.04.01 It is the top.Precious metal stocks are at a plateau the best if not peak out. The volume is saying top selling. If there are three more rising days then it will be rally again. Otherwise, it could be a bit of down side by 5-10%.
2016.03.26 Precious metal indices are taking a breath but not too much for silver. Silver producers are still hot. The volume for the two indices are remain high.
2016.03.18 CGSI2 continues its 8th weeks of rally. This week's gain is not chicken feet like last week. It is 3.3%. UGSI has similar rally. Other than the week of Feb 19, the rally enters 9th week. OBV indicate extreme strong momentum which is confirmed by the RSI and MACD which do not have any sign of level. There is also bad news. Both indices have confirmed peak signal. It is time to take a breath. Silver index has another 8+% gain.with tremendous volume. It is either short covering or ploughing in.
2016.03.11 Stock tells a very different story. It is all engine fired up. The strong volume supports the upward momentum.OBV is extraordinary strong.
2016.03.04 The precious metal stock market fires all engine. There are three scenarios. Is it a rally? Is it a short covering? Is it a panic recover? The indices are well above the 200MA.The momentum is strong. This is also the weakness. When the rise is too rapid, the fall will be the same.
2016.02.26 Gold index are toppy. There are blow off type of peak volume for UGSI. CSSI is peak off now. Watch what is coming next week. It may not be pretty. Goldcorp's falling net profit and cutting dividend does not prove the future is bright and shine. If it is, Gooldcorp should bite the bullet and keeps the dividend at current level. There is no reason to cut it if gold future is higher than higher. The only great action is FNV which skims off from the top not matter what is the bottom. Even such a performer is falling from all time high C$85 to C$80. A pull back is waiting.
2016.02.19 Gold index in Canada continues the upward momentum but the American is fizzling like the gold metal. But silver stock action is in a reverse direction of the metal which sinks a bit.Is the stock leading the metal?
2016.02.12 Indices holds for the the gold indices. Silver index lags.
2016.02.05 Indices broke above 200MA. OBV up and volume spike. All strong sign of bottom. The next question is can it hold. One more week.
2016.01.29 Rally of the precious metals stocks are consistent but not spectacular. The rally starts in September and it continues. OBV is turning up.
2016.01.23 The rally of the precious metals does not spread to the stocks. UGSI up 0.6% but the CGSI2 and CSSI drops 4 and 6%. The OBV of CGSI2 was on rising trend but peeked out and touching 200MA. No luck for the precious metal stocks.
2016.01.15 Precious metal stocks tumble like other stocks. This is the sign of bear market. Stocks tumble discriminately. There are dumping and the volume sort of spike up slightly. Precious metal stocks may be falling by associate.
2016.01.09 This could be another happy week for the precious mining stock holders. All tracked inices are up from 5-8% which is consistent with the major trend and opposes to the whole market trend. If this is a bear market, then, the precious metal stocks are not suffering while DJIA lost 6% and TSX lost 4%. The market-wide drop is heavily focus on mining, business, banking, and consumer. Why the precious metal stocks are not just holding up but not the others. As a student of the market, I would argue the MACD and the RSI are in a very positive upward trend that provide a very possitive outlook for the internal. One of the major observation in the past is that the bottom cannot be detected until it is well established. If we based on the criteria that the MACD is not falling and RSI is above 50 and in a upware trend (even it is a very gentle slope), we may be very close to the bottom. I do observe that the leveling RSI and MACD usually indicate the current trend continues. A up or down slope can tell the direction or change of direction. All these have to be supported by a rising OBV.
2015.12.31 The indices down 3%. Is this bad? It may not be after 10% gain last week. The volume is only about 60% of 200 day average. Slow year end effect.
2015.12.25 The neutral position of the stocks continues. Volume is good and the price does not fall. The weekly direction is level. This and next week is pawn on duty. No major price action could happen.
2015.12.18 The three indices have a spiked volume.It is important to observe it is at a rising direction. If this is peak, this is the top selling. It signals going down. If it is the bottom buy, we are going to see the rally. This is not a clear signal for up or down but it will be epic.
2015.12.11 Following the fall of the market, the precious metal stocks fall along. It vapourizes some of the gain last week and hold on most of it. The good news is the volume is low which indicates no liquidation. The bad news is volume is low which indicates no bottom out. It is in a holding position poise for something.
2015.12.04 All precious metal indices are up ranging from 7.5 to 13% this week. The UGSI's 13.7% rally can be explained by the U$26 rally of the gold price. Some shortie is covering the position. It is not just only the precious metal, the precious metal stocks are also up with almost all positive signals across the board: OBV is up, trendline is broken or almost broken up and volume is high. Something is brewing to create this precious metal Santa Clause rally.
2015.11.27 Key indicator for a market bottom is capitualtion and the volume is high. The continous drop in volume will force the market to spiral down.
2015.11.20 OBV is down, steeply. So it is not good.
2015.11.13 OBV is level. The downward selling volume persists. Sell side rules.
2015.11.06 OBV rules.When it says down, it is down.
2015.10.30 Volume continues to be stronger than weak. No bottom buy.
2015.10.23 Volume is either level or slightly improving. Price action is positive. Will the stock lead the metals? May not in next two months.
2015.10.16 Volume becomes steady and not pushes dramatic hire. The indices changes slightly rather than the high single digit rally in last week. The momentum is fading. If no fuel to be added, it will wane down. There are not breaking up of the down trend line.
2015.10.09 Volume continues to improve and increase. OBV either level out or tilted upward slightly. The indices just a hair below the 200MA. Can we break up? Wait and wait.
2015.10.02 Volume is steady to slight increase. The average volume indicates the trading is consistent. The dumping is gently absorbed. If someone dump heavy, the buy side withdrawn. A cat and mouse game. The bottom does not form until heavy buy. Sell side still control the market. Do not excite by the small gain this week.
2015.09.25 Selling continues but not peaking, it just continue to increase. No bottom buy but continues to dump. OBV keeps on saying down.
2015.09.18 All three indices have strong volume on Friday. OBV starts to turn up. Is it the signal of bottom? A strong possibility.
2015.09.04 The market sentiment is very sour.
2015.08.28 The market recovers with energy but not the precious metal producer. If the stock leads the metal then the metal is going to sink. Push and pull will make the future bad.
2015.08.21 Volumes are up for all the indices. If this is the bottom, it fits the model. Combining the slight improvement of the metal prices, bottom continues to form but it is very fragile.
2015.08.14 It is a good thing that the volume is higher and the indices do not fall. Bottom fishing is happening. Optimitism is here but it remains very fragile.
2015.08.08 UGSI has a confirmed bottom this week. So does CSSI. CGSI2 has turned around 2 weeks ago. The OBV remains on a downward trend but there is popping up.
2015.07.31 The stocks are not doing fine. Canadian stocks are doing better because of the strength of the USD not because of the the change of trend.
2015.07.24 Spot market and the future market of precious metals determine the value of the producer. So, it is down and down and down. On Friday, all the precious metal indices rebounded with good volume. Are we close to the bottom?.
015.07.17 Panic is everywhere when certainty is rare. The Grexit and Chinese flu will hit something but no body is sure what. Janet Yellen is not helpful because the leverage is so high that any raise in interest rate will be a humongous increase. It is not a fraction of a percentage, it is multiple of what the speculators are paying.
2015.07.10 Sideway it is.But it is only for the CGSI2.UGSI is falling.
2015.09.11 While there are number of the bottoming indicator but the bottom buy or sell does not surface. The bottom volume remains about the same as the falling trend volume. Without new money coming it, this is not a bottom.
2015.07.03 The stocks are boringly walk sideway. It is better than down.
2015.06.26 High volume continues until Friday. All in all, many signs of bottoming.
2015.06.19 Bottoming continues with slight improvements. The most enouraging is the volume. All volume on Friday are about twice or more of the average. If the volume persists and the price does not fall, we hit the bottom. If not, we face a cliff.
2015.06.12 Oil price does not stablize, but it does not benefit the mining industry because of the contracted supply. Further, accumulator is smart enough not to buy until there is chance to rally. The precious metal producers and soaked wet and rotten.
2015.06.05 OBV continues to dive. No turning point in sight.
2015.05.29 OBV points down. So no change of direction or at least it is sideway for the P&F. For price chart, the OBV is extending horizontal. The base of OBV has to be built to support the price rally.
2015.05.16 Both indices are pinned down below the 200MA. With the OBV falling, no short term turn around in general.
2015.05.08 Stocks are rally then falls. Only selected one can boom. This class of asset is not an index market. Not every stock performs the same.
2015.05.01 Stocks are rally a bit this week but not significantly showing a turnaround. OBV improves slightly ever so little.
2015.04.24 Canadian precious metal producers enjoy a fairy long time of low C$ but this is now closer to a more stable situation. So the departed direction of Canadian precious metal stock and its American counter parts are eliminated. To push up the indices, the precious metals must be higher which will not happen soon under the shadow of rate hike.
2015.05.22 Weak OBV continues.
2015.04.17 Another OBV down week. The trend is difficult.
2015.04.11 OBV for the precious metal indices are really deteriorating. No good news. No light at the other end of the tunnel. However,individual stock could perform well. This is a market for individual hero; not the asset class.
2015.04.04 CGSI2 forms double bottom at June 2013 and December 2013. Since then, there is attempt to form a third bottom. There is a base that last almost 2 years now. The volume high record high for this base. UGSI hit a bottom at Noember 2014. Will it require a second bottom to confirm the bottom? CSSI has a low at November 2014 but the support has not been broken. If we look at the OBV, all negatively pointed downward. Individual stock may be high flyer, it is not true for the asset class.
2015.03.27 The indices continue to be weak. No change.
2015.03.20 Three indices have high volume this week. Is this the bottom buy confirmation?
2015.03.13 The weakness does not go down too much but still going down a bit.
2015.03.06 Weak and no strength across the board.
2015.02.27 The MACD are closing upward going to cross over the signal line across the board. The OBV is also rising. All are positive this week. But the trend remains directionless weighted down by the interest rate hike which will hurt the capital hunger industry.
2015.02.20 American gold stocks are developing a bottoming OBV but the Canadian counter part is not. CGSI2 has more junior members. The interpretation is that big producer are bottoming but the junior producers are suffered by the tough capital supply.Junior may not improve until the gold stays above U$1,400.
2015.02.13 Gold stocks continue to sink and category rebounded. Silver stock index has volume continues to rise for last few vortex. Bottom could be close for silver stock but not gold stock.
2015.02.06 Since the year end of 2014, the precious metal stocks are holding above the low.This constitutes a very good sign. There a quite a bit of high volume. The negative is the falling of OBV. We have to wait OBV goes up to have confirmed out of wood.
2015.01.30 US gold stock index's OBV starts to level out. Volume is high. May be it is closer to the bottom than ever.
2015.01.23 Although the gold indices are rising but not the OBV. It remains weak and limp. Silver index rally has confirmed by OBV. Silver stocks have been supressed for a long time. The short squeeze is happening.
2015.01.16 Gold or silver stock indices have a high volume Friday and gold stock indices cross over the 200MA. Next Friday will show the true trend. Silver stock index had an almost 10x average volume on Dec 19 last year when the index was getting out of the bottom. Could this signal the beginning of precious metal rally and leading the metals?
2015.01.09 The indices has slight improvement encouraged by the metals' range bound. As long as OBV does not come up for air, no strong rally will happen.
2015.01.02 The slow trading week of Christmas extended to another week. The indices moved up a bit so does the OBV but the change is not major for the gold stock indices but the silver stock index jumps 10%. Next week will tell the true story.
2014.12.27 A very weak volume this week followed by downward spiral of OBV. However, the precious metal stock indices are moving ahead of the metal and inching higher. All maintain a healthy upward momentum.
2014.12.19 This week has tremendous volume. Is this the bottom buy we are looking for? There is no break-up. The optimitism should be there but not too much.
2014.12.12 Precious metal stocks are doing OK. If the margin clerk starts to work overtime, we should watch out.
2014.12.07 With the help of the lower C$, perhaps, the Canadian gold stocks are holding up much better than the American cousins. There is a trading range but the CGSI resistance around 210 holds well. The big negative is the OBVs are pointing downward. Silver stocks are slaughtered by the low silver price. Consolidation could happen when more juniors are bankcrukpted which will impare the future supply. One has to be patience. These cycle can be ranging from 15 to 20 years. We had a boom around 2010 after the 2008 crash. The next cycle peak could be around 2030. But it can come earlier if the stars and the sun lined up.
2014.11.28 Although the volume is fairy high but the OBV remains falling. So it is not bottom yet.
2014.11.21 Gold stocks seems brilliant until they are sold for year end tax selling. Other than CGSI2, HUI, XAU, and UGSI are down from 11 to 18 percent. It may not be a sell to cover the lost but window dressing by the funds will force them to sell before year end; most proabably into mid-December. It is depressing.
2014.11.14 There are a lot of buying. The bruised precious metal stock market bounced back a bit which can be driven by short covering. However, the volume's steady increase is a good pre-cursor of bottom.
2014.11.07 A lot of low point high volume for both precious metal stock indices. This is either capitulation or bottom buy. The stock has to lead the metal. If not, next six months will be disaster.
2014.10.31 There is sign of capitualtion. Are we hitting the bottom. 60% sure. If the sell volume maintains next week, the bottom is not in.
2014.10.24 OBV is still going down. The CGSI2 is doing better than UGSI because of the high USD. No real improvement.
2014.10.17 OBV continues to be down.Not a bull sign.
2014.10.10 Volume increased but this is no capitulation yet. OBV still down.
2014.10.03 Could BABA becomes the robber? The IPO of Alibaba made the market money tight.Any unbalance act toppled the market to the down side. CGSI down 2.7% but UGSI down 6.9%. Canadian precious metal stocks helped by the strong USD. The margin clerk is working overtime this weekend. Next week, the papa bear can come out. The Friday dead cat rebound is a bull trap. Watch out!
2014.09.26 It could be hopeful feeling but the Canadian stocks does much better than the
2014.09.19 CGSI and UGSI continues to topped out. The OBV is bending down. All points to a weak precious metals stock environment. CSSI may deserve special attention. It falls. It falls 7.8% this week on top of last week's 2.3% and 2 weeks ago's 5.5%. We have a peak volume of 200% of 200 day average. May be this is the bottom buy we are looking for. Two more days to confirm.
2014.09.12 CSSI is now topped out. Watch any skid.
2014.09.05 The precious metal stocks show some strength but it is weakening. Some pullback can happen until year end.
2014.08.29 Canadian small and mid producer are continue to enjoy a gental rally. There may not be big gain but the rise is observable. The American cousin is going sideway. Silver stocks are forming a big base with a lot of accumulation. Silver stocks are performed more favourable than gold stocks. However, everyone is very edgy.
2014.08.15 US gold stocks are rising in a much more pedestrian way than the firely Canadian counterpart. This can be caused by the strong U$ or a weaker C$. Nonetheless, middle-tier Canadian gold / silver producer are leading the charge. We do have to observe the OBV to ensure it does not dip.
2014.08.08 Gold shares remains in a holding pattern but silver shares start to break up, slightly.
2014.08.01 Gold shares are holding (UGSI) to slow rally (CGSI2). Both OBV are level. Silver stocks are at a holding position with improving OBV. It is more preference to silver stocks accumulation.
2014.07.26 Canadian small cap gold stock continues to do well that pushes the CGSI2 continues the gentle rally. UGSI does not improve much. Large producer remains not making profit well enough or the future view to attract higher price. The price to acquire new resources inventory is getting higher. The investment is not in the big precious metal cap but in the smaller one. The silver stock's OBV is getting higher shows a higher demand.
2014.07.18 Precious metals stocks continues the gentle rally. Silver stocks take a pause for a breath. OBV shows the momentum remains.
2014.07.11 Gold stocks are rising slowly but persistently. The really screamer is silver stocks. Volume is up. All engines are fired. Canadian gold stocks have rally above previous high but the US gold stocks still need more push. Silver stocks are improving with the help of good volume.
2014.07.04 We have more signs for precious metal stocks to recomver. It is not a bottom buy. It is the persistent volume to the up side.
2014.06.27 CGSI2 is not more the Canadian brother of UGSI because the larger number of mid-tier miners in CGSI2, their behavior do not have to match. UGSI continues to show strength with the price in range bound. CGSI2 has volume and OBV to prove it is on fire for its break up with RSI hitting 80. UGSI is close to 80 but not there yet. Good volume and strong OBV is a good up trend indicator.
2014.06.20 This Friday, a very strong bottom buy for the gold and silver stocks. CGSI2 has 218% 200 MV volume and UGSI has 134%. CGSI2 is now 23.4% above the 200MA which is sort of approaching overbought as the RSI hitting 90. UGSI just peaked above the 200MA by 5%. Silver stocks does not do much but has a 414% 200MV down 2% after a strong 6.5% gain on Thursday with 240% 200MV. This reflects a lot of exit on Friday for taking profit or capitulation. OBV shows buying pressure is winning the selling.
2014.06.13 Gold shares are struggling at the bottom but silver shares are having a lift off by the OBV. But both are range bound until a break above of recent high.
2014.06.06 It appears close to the bottom. OBV still slides. As long as the volume does not improve, all rally are illusion.
2014.05.24 On the surface, the stocks continue to be weak. OBV shows a very strong selling pressure. Silver stock is being dumped. However, we see the strong support. This may be the action of short selling. When the volume is high, we may have to worry. The volume is low so we may approach the bottom based on two factors. Falling OBV does not push down price significantly. Price is rebounded at supporting level. The missing action is catalyst to rally.
2014.05.16 Index may be stablized but OBV says the sell pressure is high and winning.
2014.05.09 When the situation seems stablized, it is only good for gold stocks. Silver stocks slide.
2014.05.02 Precious stocks are stablizing. The OBV is improving slightly. Bottom is forming.
2014.04.26 Precious metal stock indices are advancing despite the range bound of the metals. The rally is strongly supported by two major indicators. The relative strength to the metal is going up. The OBV is also getting up. This support accumulation either for short covering or rally. Investors remain shy from the silver stocks. Once burnt.....
2014.04.18 Lower metal prices drive the stock to fall. All major indices are climbing. This does not mean the market does not have problem. The internal momentum has been significantly lower. The upward strength is bear minimal.
2014.04.11 Selling pressure persists but individual can do well, like OSK. The falling trend is identified by the OBV.
2014.04.04 Selling pressure is still the main theme of the day. At the end of the week, there was a slight rebound.
2014.03.28 Selling pressure must be coming from the top form of the market index. A catalyst to scare people to exit other asset class to pursuit precious stock must come in to light.
2014.03.21 CGSI2 continues to be the leader of the index. It is not just only index is climbing, the volume is double on Friday. It could be the sign for another frog leap ahead. Silver stocks are horrible. It is just weak. After a short rally, it is hoovering and does not do much.
2014.03.14 CGSI2 is now in effect. CGSI will be too limited after Nemont delisted from TSX. CGSI2 has 40 members rather than the 8 members before. It includes mid and small producer which can be interesting. CGSI2 and UGSI both are on the rising now. However, the day to day inter-day volatility is tremendous. People are struggling for next two/three months. Once the leader emerges, the rally will be much steady. For the meantime, the longer and shortie is doing hand to hand combat. The gold to CGSI2 ratio is continue to fall rapidly showing the favour is on the side of stocks. Silver stocks are recovering from the bottom. It is coming out strong. When it moves up, we may see some firework.
2014.03.07 OBV continues to fall from both sides of the border and CSSI. The sell pressure is building up higher and higher with the price moving steady after the indices fell 4% last week. This week, the indices is steady with small gain. The rally cannot proceed without the OBV move higher. Therefore, we have to careful at this junction that let the shorties win. I am developing another broader spectrum CGSI including more mid-tier producers. This CGSI2 has shown OBV is leveled and going up. This indicates the big producers are being liquidated but the mid-tier is accumulated.
2014.02.28 OBV shows selling pressure is high but the price holds up. Until the sell pressure subside, the price can go sideway for sometime. Eventually, the metal price pulls up the stock. The internal is good because the gold to stock index ratio is falling.
2014.02.22 Another wonderful week for the precious metal stocks. The mid-level producer are getting more attention but this also trigger some portfolio balancing for those want to reduce the precious metal stocks for those do not see a good future of precious metal. Even under such sell pressure, indicated by the volume, the indices are still climbing. This could setting up for some shorting opportunity which will create a pullback.
2014.02.14 OBV is driving the precious metal stock and so does the volume. Volume increases and OBV bottoms out. Both drive a very steady rally of precious metal indices. Silver stocks must be shorted so badly that CSSI has a miracle 11% gain in this week. UGSI does similarily while CGSI only have 9% gain. These indices are forming the golden cross. The momentum is strong. We take what we are giving. Such strong rally can signal a hidden quick and short pullback by traders. Within one to two week, there should be a 5-15% pull back that will shake out many retail investors.
2014.02.07 OBV is key. They are changing from down to level to slightly up. Price is leading. The rally has to be confirmed by a break up.
2014.02.01 OBV is key. Gold shares OBV does not improve so does silver stocks. Volume is higher. The bottoming process continues. This can be a long and cold winter.
2014.01.24 OBV has turned up finally. With indices move up. We have a confirmation. This could lead the metals.
2014.01.17 OBV turns level which indicates the selling pressure subsideds. At the same time, the index moved up since December. CGSI and UGSI up 19% and 15% while CSSI up 21%. Volume is also on the rise to support the rising indices. This is a good sign. Another major sign for the gold stock is the weekly MACD. UGSI has just cross over the signal line while CGSI is more advanced. Both indices' RSI are around 50 which have more room to rally. Overall, it signals a strong recovery.
2014.01.10 OBV continues to show selling pressure dominates but gold shares improve slightly.
2014.01.03 Index may be up but OBV does not confirm.
2013.12.27 What ever can be bad influence, they all come out at the same time. weak and weak.
2013.12.20 OBV continues the down journey but the volume spiked up. This is not the monent to buy until it is the bottom buy. It may not be the bottom but some good sign.
2013.12.13 OBV shows a downward trend.
2013.12.06 The optimism vapourized. As long as there is capitualated sell, the bottom is hit. The bottom sell is not there.
2013.11.29 The full picture shows the precious metal stocks are going down but the OBV seems not quite agree.
2013.11.22 No firm bottom yet. We need to wait for sideway action to confirm. It will not be a V shape recovery.
2013.11.15 More double bottom but not enough volume to form the real bottom yet.
2013.11.08 OBV shows bottoming. On Friday, stock leads the recovery before metals afternoon heavy lost. Precious metal stock is turning around very slowly.
2013.11.02 There may be double bottom but the OBV turns from up to down which names the seller to be the winner. The volume is about 200% of 200 average on Friday. There is panic sell. Silver stocks hold much better than the gold but the volatility is tremendous. One the most important indicator, the gold to share ratio, is tipping the scale to the stock. The ratio is leveling. It breaks the upward trend with a double top.
2013.10.25 The indices gone parabolic. The PF charts show double bottom with OBV rises. There is a rally but the quality is yet to see. There is a strong 15% rally pending. If the indices hit that they cross over the 200MA which is a strong reovery sign.
2013.10.18 Although the indices bumped up a bit but OBV is still trending down without question. It may be the trend for t
he rest of the year.
2013.10.11 Selling continues as precious metals direction is dipping.
2013.10.04 Year end tax loss fluid gate opens.
2013.09.27 The high volume of last week was liquidation. The price continues to fall no a good sign. But now is end of September already. Tax loss sell has started. Once it is in motion, the price can stay down until near Christmas.
2013.09.21 Finally we see a high volume at the low price that pushes up the OBV. Despite the pullback at the end of the week, it is very positive as the consequence of the Fed's non-tapering.
2013.09.13 Stocks come down hard. The only comfort is volume is low.
2013.09.06 Stocks are very fragily recovering with low volume with a lot of back and forth. Any news can knock it down badly.
2013.08.30 Since the last peak, the selling intensified. It could be the confident level. The selling is fairy intensive. If it persists, it can trigger a market why sell off. This sell off should be low probability to run off the cliff. The volatility shows the market has no leader but guerilla. Retail investors can be confused. Silver stocks have been significantly oversold. Any recovery will be very violent.
2013.08.23 Shorties may not be the contributor of this week's rally. The short covering days should be less than 5 for the precious metal stocks. We have 2 week rally which shows some fundamental factor. Precious metal stocks are in a weeding process. Those have high production cost, low reserve and bad asset will be out of the game either bought out or bankrupt. The size will not matter. Three indices rise by 0.6%, 4.0% and 4.7% for UGSI, CGSI, and CSSI. This indicates the buying in the States are slowing down. Silver is slowing down from a 16.7% gain down to a 4.7% gain. Gold stocks volume can support more rally but silver stocks could be close to the end.
2013.08.16 Shorties help the rally but it is not the only reason. Shorties cover the book like no tomorrow that pushes the indices 16.7% for CSSI, 14.5% for CGSI and 13.2% for UGSI. These are not normal short cover but panic cover. The reason to trigger these short covering must be in a panic mode. So we can expect the short covering can exacerbated by the precious metals rally if it happens next week. If not, the rally will have a small profit taking with low volume. If the volume is high than the pull back will be short and the panic short cover will continue. If there is so much short covering than the fall of the precious metals stocks are not due to supply and demand. Watch out.
2013.08.09 There is sign of bottom fishing for precious metal stocks.
2013.08.02 The bottom is false floor which is shown by the downward OBV.
2013.07.26 Stock bottoms. The severe damage will need 6 months to rebuild. The knee jerk rally is just the short covering which does not sustain. We shall see some backfill and retest to form the base.
2013.07.12 Stock continues to go up. The metal to stock ratio coming down a bit. Three precious metal stock index rise this week. But we have to watch the OBV of CGSI falls. Selling pressure persists to a point to pull down the index. Combining the weakness of the metal, the stock can sink quickly.
2013.07.12 Buying for precious metal stocks continues with a bit slowing down. Bottoming has started but not finish. The volume is good. CGSI and UGSI are up 4% and CSSI is up 6% for the week. The is good performance while gold up 5%. The stock is no more shy from gain.
2013.07.05 Precious metal stocks slid this week with strong volume. The downward momentum is strong but the buying is also strong. The stocks just reflect the metals' next week action. So far the stock is doing better but considering the falls at the beginning year, the trade is bad.
2013.06.29 Precious metal stocks was dragged down at the beginning of the week but rebounds ahead of the precious metals with a significant rate. This tells a hint that the metals' fall does not make sense. But market maker can drive the market in any direction as needed.
2013.06.21 The precious metal stock market is dragged down by the metal but the strong volume can be proved to be accumulation. It is really bargain. However, we have to admit that it is not buying time yet.
2013.06.15 Accumulation continues.
2013.06.07 Accumulate when it is down.
2013.05.31 Canadian gold ans silver stock have a strong covering on Friday. CGSI has a volume of 3 time of the 200 day volume average. CSSI is 2 times the volume. All showing the fear of the rally. These two indices have 16% (CGSI) and 6.5% gain this week. While the American UGSI does not have gigantic volume, it does gain 8.7% this week. This puts in a bottom for gold stocks.
2013.05.24 Still at worse phase.
2013.05.17 Worse follow bad. There still worst to come. Any how, the fall is very systematic. We can see the tug of wall continues.
2013.05.10 This dead cat proves to be a bull trap. The indices continue to slide and the OBV drifts downward. This is negative.
2013.05.03 Dead cat rebounce cannot say bottom is hit.
2013.04.26 Canadian gold and silver stocks are continuing to be weak because of supply; not much of buyer but the American gold stock buyers are fare far much better with a better OBV recovery. Nonetheless, this could be the dead cat rebounce.
2013.04.19 The stocks continue to fall along with the metals and more. The rise in volume many not be the bottom buy but exit sell. Hold the horse and watch.
2013.04.13 The stocks fall along with the metals. The Friday volume of CGSI and UGSI are 269% and 288% of the 200 day volume average. This is not exactly at capitualtion level but close. However, the momentum cannot justify a bottom. Which means, the bottom may not be near. It could be the beginning of multiple fall.
2013.04.06 The last few months the OBV shows a very consistant sell pattern with high pressure. The price has a capitulation behavior. Now we have a confirmed bottom for CGSI, UGSI and CSSI at the same time which is rare but true. The most inportant point is the bottom buy signal that stop the fall. All supported by a strong bottom buy. The volume for last 3 days of the short week is above 150% of the 200 moving average. The market is betting the stock will turnaround or dumping them before a sky dive. Monday will be a key day to watch.
2013.03.31 The selling pressure comes back on the Canadian side. The US gold stock investors also lose steam of buying. The price will be weak until the gold price breaks above u$1,700. If not, there will be further lost.
2013.03.22 Selling pressure subsided with buying order pushing the price up for the gold stocks. The recovery process for the silver stock may have gingerly begun. The selling of silver stocks is challenging.
2013.03.16 Selling pressure continues but the price rebounded. The metal prices are the determinating factor.
2013.03.08 Selling pressure has turned around but just a bit that does not showing a switch.
2013.03.01 Selling pressure is high everywhere. The index is pushed down. Silver index has a downward reversal. It has to be taking seriously.
2013.02.22 It is the capitualtion and the fall continues.
2013.02.16 The confirmation for gold share is not revealed but the high volume could be the capitualation or bottom buy. Silver stock is much clearer. It is a bottom.
2013.02.10 Weak bottom to be confirmed. CSSI has an early oversold signal. Not a firm buying signal yet but CGSI & UGSI are. Both CGSI & UGSI also have a trough volume spike.
2013.02.01 A strong sell out of the stocks but we may have seen the bottom.
2013.01.25 Precious metal stock continues to be dumped but the bottom is very near.
2013.01.18 Precious metal stocks are not reflecting the improvement of the metal. Dumping seems lingering.
2013.01.11 CGSI goes up by the week but UGSI goes down very limited. We may see the bottom or bottom sideway for the gold stocks but the silver stocks remain very volatile. The key thing is CSSI has an up signal.
2013.01.04 Gold stocks now leading the gold price to bottom out.
2012.12.28 Gold stocks failed to rally but silver stocks holds.
2012.12.22 A 10% correction may not be enough but there is a spike of buying on Friday in the gold stock market.
2012.12.14 Gold shares have a small rebound and so does the silver shares. The bottoming out process of gold shares is more obvious while silver shares bottom out in a more flatter manner. Silver shares do not rally with buy yet.
2012.12.07 Still very static but UGSI shows buying.
2012.12.02 Virtually unchanged for this week with some weakness caused by the year end tax selling to lock in profit or lost.
2012.11.23 Stronger indicator for bottom out; higher OBV and higher price. But volume remains for Canadian gold stock and silver stock.
2012.11.16 OBV is riding out of the bottom or climbing while the price hanging on a plateau. Things may not deteriorate too much before turnaround.
2012.11.10 The members of UGSI are not the exact duplicate of the Canadian members. There are a few American stocks that do not have Canadian listing this includes GFI, HMY, AU etc. The reason I have to bring it up because US gold stocks index lead the Canadian gold stock index for years even after the exchange adjustment and now it is the reverse. The bad performance is caused by the losing value for these specific stocks. The following are two charts that shows the ratio of ABX and Goldcorp American listing in C$ compared to the Canadian counter part. There is difference but not by a big margin.
2012.11.03 Amierican and Canadian gold stocks perform differently. Canadian is more in a accumulation mode but American gold stocks are sliding. American gold stocks had a bottom buy in May and now they have a top sell in September. Since than the market continues to slide.Canadian silver stock is the performer. It continues to clmb despite the softneess in the silver.
2012.10.26 The precious metal stock indices are not doing well but it is no in a pullback. It is in backfilling. The advance could outpace the metals.
2012.10.19 Canadian precious metals stocks are doing worse than the American slightly. With its strong performance, now is the time for profit taking. It has pulled back a bit but the selling pressure is low. The American continue to accumulate. The stocks have made a decisive decision to detach the weakness of the metal. As the result, stocks move higher on Friday rather than lower as the metal. This is a stage for the stock rally.
2012.10.13 Precious metal stocks have a set back but demand varies. Canadian stock continues to be accummulated. But American stock is under sell pressure. Canadian silver stock is on demand and OBV is bottoming out. Canadian gold stock is in favor and outperform the American cousin even after the FX. Invest in Canadian stock is actually invests two thing: the C$ and the gold. When gold and C$ rally, the gain is double.
2012.10.06 Not all gold stocks are equal. The membership of UGSI includes AU and GFI which drag the index behind the CGSI. Investment sentiment is also diverse. Short termwise, the Canadian investors seem more conservative as the index peaking while the American investors are more aggressive on buying. The indices are out of the wood as the gold to index ratio is lowering but not quite down to 3 yet. Silver stocks are getting out of the abbys. Watch out if it arises above the recent high. This will be a reverse H&S.
2012.09.28 Following the metals, gold and silver stock consolidated to take a breath for the recent parabolic. Some such as FNV still doing the parabolic without news and heavy insider selling. Sound too familiar to the Nortlel when John Roth was selling.
2012.09.21 The tooth may be too long. Until there is some sideway action, the precious metal stocks may face a correction.
2012.09.15 The rally continues. It has legs; long legs.
2012.09.07 All hell broke loose break up for all precious metal stocks.
2012.09.01 Gold stocks advances differently between the American and Canadian. The American gold index remains below the 200MA with less momentum while the CGSI rises above the 200MA. However, OBV shows sell on high. Not a good sign. Silver stock index remains to swing in big amplitude. Any buying has to tie to long term plan.
2012.08.25 A solid general rally for the precious metal stock indices. The indices move better than the OBV showing the mass buying is not there. The move could be pushed by short covering. The major event of rising above 200MA has to be seen.
2012.08.17 The improvement may be small but persistent. Yet it is fragile.
2012.08.11 The break of the precious metals stocks may come. Gold stocks are coming back and silver stocks rallied 20% since the last bottom of 2,467 on May 15, 2012 or 10% since July 18, 2012's 2,708. In fact, CSSI up 4 days as oppose to the 4 day down last week. We may see a rally is in action so how long and how strong will this be?
2012.08.04 The precious metal stocks do not do miracle. Accumulation sign for the gold stock is strong but the silver stocks is weaker by week. The following chart shows how the Canadian gold stocks out perform the American gold stocks even there is 60% overlap in the index membership. The CGSI is adjusted in U$.
2012.07.27 There are two developments for the precious metal stocks. Gold stocks fell but halted with some positive gain on the price and the volume. Both Goldcorp and Barracks were hammered with the results were weak. There are two situations that people cannot see the reality. When the oil price is at the current U$90 level, even oil producer stocks do not doing well; forget those do not. The cash cost for Goldcorp has been double and the production reduces is a lethal combination. However, it is not a bad reality. Goldcorp rose from the fact that they were mining but held back the gold and sold later at a higher price. Mining lower grade ore is a way to preserve. Once it is recognized this with the combination of the gold stock dividend promotion, the price will do better but not necessary to be two to three time of the current level. The price is about the same level before the 2008 crash which was also at a down trend. If the economy tanks, the 2008 crash will repeat.
2012.07.20 Gold stocks index hits the threshold of 30 and rebounds. Silver stocks index just holds where it is. While gold stocks have high volume but the silver stock's volume is low. The wood's edge may be close but not there yet.
2012.07.13 Weak, weaker and weaker.
2012.07.06 OBV and momentum points to a continue weak trend. No breakthrough in sight.
2012.06.29 Precious metal stocks are weak. The high volume is the sell pressure. Bottom is yet to be seen.
2012.06.22 Silver stocks are continued to be weak. Gold stocks also weakening. A bad short term.
2012.06.15 Silver stocks are weak, weak, weak but the gold stocks are stronger. The OBV shows accumulation. Bottom can be near.
2012.06.08 Gold stocks are dumped on Canadian side but not the American. Silver stocks are down but OBV rises. This tuck of war between bull and bear will be violent with many collateral damage.
2012.06.02 Starting this week, we have the Canadian silver stock index deput. This is a horrible chart that decline since the crash of 2008. The OBV does not recover until now. This could be the first action of bottom building. Gold stock indices are much better in the last two weeks since May 15. All lined up and submerge. There is still correction which should be. The rally is abnormally strong but boosted by the stronger gold price. There is bottom buy volume and the bottom price resistance. All in all, it is the market for the brave.
2012.05.25 It is strange that the gold stock started a rally from May 15 but the OBV rally (accumulation) starts before that. Can we use the OBV as an lead indicator? When the gold stock moving up while the metal is down or level is counter-intuitive.
2012.05.18 The metals and the precious metal stocks synchronizes their movement most of the time but not all the time. The downward spiral of gold stock tells the story. However, this week has some consistent opposite actions when gold falls HUI is up. The OBV continue to climb and accompanied by the rise of the stock cold signal a turnaround.
2012.05.12 "Notwithstanding the bad market trend, the gold stocks are actually bottoming out." The key indicator is the OBV. It shows selling pressure under the price falling scenario. If this technique is correct, we see the systematic dumping of gold shares. Since there is a strong downward tie between gold price and gold shares, the buying remains very cautious but and hesitate. There is also an interesting action this week when gold falls HUI went up; a sign of panic short covering for gold shares.
2012.05.04 Notwithstanding the bad market trend, the gold stocks are actually bottoming out.
2012.04.28 The market has a leader: going down. There are favouable news for the gold companies and individual performs very well but the overall is bad. HUI may have 7.5 (1.7%) point gain but it is at the down trend with RSI at 39. This week there is a confirmed bottom indicator. While the weekly trend has not shown any indicator to say the bottom has been hit. HUI data indicates the down trend starts in February of this year. This is not the sell in May rather in February. After Two months of decline and gold price is stablized, the gold stock could approach a bottom. Both UGSI and CGSI have the OBV turn up for this week which is a good comforting signal for the gold stocks.
2012.04.20 The market has leader this week unfortunately because it goes down. The selling pressure persistently due to unknown and no news condition. It is very possibly portfolio rebalencing or simply taking money off the table.
2012.04.13 The drifting creates worry among investors.
2012.04.06 This is not a bottom buy but peak sell. The indices are so weak that it seems breaking down rather than declining. People could take money off the table.
2012.03.30 The volume is slightly pulled back with the stocks lower. It is a good sign but it still weak bottom.
2012.03.24 Last week, we have massive high volume before the weekend for both the CGSI and UGSI. This week we do not see the high volume on the charts because the indices did not have a major reveral. The high volume on one day was absorbed into the period's average volume. But this is a very important event to signify a very possibly turning around of the market. If we review the average volume carefully, we also see the average volume for las few period (up or down) are improving slowly. It is not a strong evident until we have major volume improvement.
2012.03.16 This Friday is a clean up the book day. The volume is high for both CGSI and UGSI. Some component members have a very active day. The preceeding days did not have high volume. This reflect the action to put the book in good order for the end of the quarter. The gold stock price will be surpressed because mutual fund will sell the gold stocks to do window dressing. So hang tight to your investment philosophy.
are not doing very bad. Both are range bounded since end of last year. This becomes an advantage for accumulation.
2012.03.02 Accumulation of the gold stocks becomes more obvious as the trading channel moving up.
2012.02.24 Accumulation of the gold stocks are disguised.
2012.02.17 Selling pressure increases. The index forming a big top. All points to some major correction.
2012.02.11 Stocks follow the gold story. The peaks of the indices are continue to fall. The OBV is lowering showing selling is in action from the most recent accumulation. Investment in the precious metals should be in a very cautious mode.
2012.02.03 Stocks follow the metal ginerly but remain very sensitive to the retreat of the metal.
2012.01.27 The reversual of the precious metals give the falling gold/silver stock a helping hand. Trend remains negative.
2012.01.21 Gold stocks is just falling. May be I should say it is struggling. The CGSI stocks are obviously sold at high but the buying is not as strong which contrasts the UGSI stocks. The later's OBV is more flat which says the dumping is not there. Two indices show characteristicly different between peak and bottom. Recently, CGSI has slight lower average volume between interval than the turning points but UGSI is just reverse except the last one. An indicator of holding pattern.
2012.01.14 There is big round top with lower volume for both gold indices. It is not a good picture. Same as the gold price. What can trigger the down fall? The answer is gold price. However, if we use the value equation, gold shares are very good value including good dividend. Lets fall back to the technical. No indicator says the correction is over.
2012.01.06 The gold stocks are stubbonly refuse to fall as the market.
2011.12.31 Gold shares is riding the 200MA OBV. Why this is important while the indices are falling. The volume is level. The OBV is also level. The selling of pressure does not increase while gold price drops precipitately. The balance between buying and selling shows a demand and supply equilibrium.
2011.12.23 Selling pressure is subsiding. Canadian buying is weak but the American buying is stronger.
2011.12.17 Gold stocks look terrible. It falls and falls. But the volume is up about 10-20% when the price is falling. This is either a dumping or an accumulation. OBV shows a slightly positive picture
2011.12.10 It is tales of two cities. CGSI shows the selling pressure is up but reduced. UGSI selling pressure is overtaken by the buying. History shows the volatility is wilde and strong but limited to a horizontal channel. The breaking of the channel will be determined by the gold price, stock price and the most important is the dividend offering. UGSI OBV has turned positive which indicates accumulation.
2011.12.03 Short covering helped the rally of gold stocks on Thursday. On Friday, most of the gain was returned. The confident in gold stock is so fragile that people are selling to rally rather than buying on low. However, there is a price floor forming independent of the selling pressure. The selling pressure could come from the shorties.
2011.11.26 The fall of the American stock market is complemented by the dumping of the gold stocks. UGSI's fall of 10% has a lighter impact on the CGSI which falls about 7% due to the lower C$. As the year end approaching, the sell off could be accelerated due to the year end world trade settlement. 2011 could end up as a messy year.
2011.11.18 It seems gold stocks are weak but in fact it is trading in a range. Holding pattern for gold to recover.
2011.11.11 During the middle of the week, gold stocks dipped. But weekly close is up. The indices eeked above the resistance. There may be backfill but the base has been set. This could be the critical turning point for gold stock rally. With the gold price holding near U$2,000, the profit margin for the gold producers are huge. The dividend of big producer are tying their dividend with the gold price. Generally, it is about 1% now. When the gold price breaks above U$2,000 it can be 5% and then 10%. This implies high inflation which will make all other blue chip's dividend payout difficult.
2011.11.04 Gold stocks continue to improve. UGSI is 5% above 200MA while CGSI is 8% above 200MA. CGSI is impressive because U$ is higher than C$ by the skin of the tooth. The gain of Canadian gold stock just higher demand than the American cousin. Perhaps the cause is the margin clerk more active at the south than the north. With more gold producer raising their dividend, the demand will rise because it becomes a via alternative to other financial and utility blue chip.
2011.10.29 General condition of gold stocks continues to improve. Buying pressure is building, OBV is climbing. Although gold price does not advance much but the current level translated to extreme lucrative. With record high earning translated to higher dividends, gold stocks can generate income. If the trend continues, income fund will start to buy into gold sector.
2011.10.22 Both stock indices are at the base of H&S. This is not a good sign. The only hope lies on the unconfirmed bottom for both on a Friday. This unconfirmed bottom indicates the sentiment points to the hope side rather than desparate. If desparate the market will sell off and go home naked. Yet, the low volume does not provide the best comfort.
2011.10.14 After some struggling, the gold stock is recovering. First, the indices move above the 200MA. The selling pressure subsided to allow some upward movement of the OBV. The X-factor is the volume which does not rally and keep on a marginal near lowering of the OBV's 200MA. Until the volume picks up, the rally will be weak. The major long trend looks good as the precious metal producers start paying dividend. As soon as the yield comparable to the large corporation such as banks and utility, the buying from institution and income fund will dramatically increase only if the interest rate remains low. In another word, we are in deflation or staflation situation.
2011.10.07 Gold stocks do nothing this week. The bottoming cannot be started. The major feature is UGSI broke down below 200MA while CGSI is not. At the end of the week, both recover some territory. C$ gold stocks are outperforming the U$ cousin.
2011.09.30 UGSI and CGSI are saying confirm bottom.
2011.09.24 Mild correction turns to a panic broke down. UGSI down 10.7% and CGSI 7.2% this week. It should be observed that our dear American friends seem have to dump the gold stocks at any price but the volume is not that high; it is only 50-60% higher than normal on Thursday and Friday. The selling is much controlled yet it indicates a systematic exit. From here, patient is important. It is as important as cash.
2011.09.17 Gold stocks has a mild correction from the recent continuous new high. On September 9, HUI set the high of 638.59. Since then, the CGSI and UGSI continued to make new high until last week and then corrected. CGSI lost 5% while UGSI lost 2%. These are very mild correction that allows the market to function properly. The market, especially for the the gold stock market, depends on trading rather buy and hold. The up trend of OBV, I use it to gauge buying or selling pressure, is intact.
In the last 12 months, any gold stock investors holding the asset will happen to take some profit when the new high was hit. OBV indicates the dumping is mild which implies the profit taking is just a way of life. The confident is in. When the drop is 2-5% but no heavy dumping, the asset class is not exited. From now on, if gold price can hold the current position, may non-profitable mines in 2005 will become highly profitable. The grade of 1-2 gram/ton will be milly profitable which will help the bottom line of many gold shares or the value will be up. With the help of higher price why the supply side does not change. Gold mines have a very high entry and expension barrier. Its capital demand is only second to the uranium operation. With the tighter environmental safety standard, it becomes extremely expensive to clean the poisonous chemical and by products coming out of the gold mine. For those junior producers or first tier base metal producers who produce gold as by-product or co-product are in the best position now because the cost does not change but the gravy bowl just being filled up with more gravy. While everybody has been screaming on how bad the economy is, the demand of base metals remain high. As the demands maintained, the junior that by-produce gold will have a bright yellow future.
2011.09.10 We have two brilliant weeks of gold stock rally that immues from the bad market news. On Friday, the boys and girls of the market clear the book a bit to reduce the exposure on the effect of Greek default during the weekend rumour. The volume has been supporting the gold stock rally. This rally seems very steady but controlled. This is not an asset class way of rally. The rally is selective. On Friday, the UGSI and CGSI dipped 0.7% and 0.9% respectively and HUI down 1.1%. There is enough statistical discrepencies to say they are the same. All in all, the sign of institutional buying is stealthly shown.
2011.09.06 Gold was brilliant in the morning; rose above U1,900. At the end of the day, it retreated to U$1,870 level. The market went down but not imploded. When the lost of indices were more than 100+ points, gold stock bloomed. As the indices recovered some of the lost, gold stock shrink but all managed a gain. Gold near future end of the day closed at U$1,874.40 down U$25.60 or -1.4%. HUI rose 3.75 +0.6% to 621.78 down about 13 point from the high of the day 634.85. CGSI and UGSI gain 6.96 (+1.5%) and 2.76 (+0.6%). This is an obvious change of attitude towards gold stock because the market down and gold down but not good quality gold stock. We should have a much closer watch at the gold stocks.
2011.09.02 This is the week since many moons that gold stocks do not sympathize with the stock market. TSX index down 0.8% and Dow Jones Industry down 2.3%. But HUI is not down but up 3.2%. Both CGSI and UGSI are up 4.3% and 3.7% respectively to achieve all time high while TSX and Dow Jones Industry up 2.2% and down 0.39%. Gold stocks are strongly showing they are different from the general market, especially the American gold stocks constrasting the Industry. There is also another important point that the Canadian gold stocks are moving high while C$ is higher than U$. The gold stocks may move back to sympathize the general stock market due to margin call but in intermediate term, they may be much more valuable than the rest of the portfolio that they are the achor of the margin portfolio that provide the margin. Selling them will lose the margin. When that happens, the gold stocks will be rising vertical.
2011.08.27 End of the uld be the inflexion point that gold stock will follow closer to the gold price rather than the stock market. The stock market is in a deep correction but both indices are edging higher. CGSI broke the resistance and holding on. OBV improves. These are good sign.
2011.08.19 CGSI moves much more spectacular than its cousin. The OBV is also pulling up. The only worry is that there was heavy top selling. It is equally delight that there is no dumping when the index pulls back. Due to strange reason, we have C$ above par with U$ but CGSI broke up to have an all time high while the all time high of UGSI in April remains intact. There is transition on the buying of gold stocks to accumulate for the tier 1 producers. This is the very early stage of second gold stock bull. When we have the junior flying high then we know it is in the third stage.
2011.08.12 With gold stays above U$1,600, both indices breaks up but no new all time high. Gold and silver shares are starting either begin to pay dividend or pay more. Goldcorp has increased the dividend from 2.5 cents a month to 4 cents; a rise of 60%. Precious metal stock may not be that boring now.
2011.08.05 My OBV does not tell accurately whether we have a bottom buy but the volume is huge.
2011.07.29 Gold stocks sympathize the market involuntarily because high flyers were sold off. This will change soon. When the stocks turn around, it will follow the movement of the metal.
2011.07.22 The seesaw plays out all week long. At the end, the rally win. We have a short term victory on the gold stock after gold stubbornly holding the U$1,600 position. The gold share train has departed the platform.
2011.07.15 As the OBV showing upward price direction, the gold stock index continues the climbing. The climbing is meaningful and deserves more attention because the metal to index ratio drops which means the stock index is now climbing faster. The vertical characteristics of the stock indices confirm there is panic buying. As the result we can see some dramatic pullback next week. If not dramatic, there should be some back filling before it continues to rally. Since gold has confirmed its break up, stock performance will enhance. We can see the stock index moving a much faster pace than 1% per week. If indices can break the old high, the pace can be faster.
2011.07.09 After four weeks of falling, the indices rose two weeks in a row. CGSI and UGSI rose 3.0 and 4.8% WoW. This is not as exciting as the metal but at least there is some corelationship rather than ignoring the metal's rally but sympathy to the fall. The volume has been on a slowly falling trend. These rally may be strong but it is only supported by thinner trade. Nonetheless, it is important to see the indices move above the 200MA. One strong indicator is the down turning of the C$ gold price to CGSI falls. Combining OBV moves up ahead of price, falling gold to index ratio and index risen above 200MA, all these are good indicators for gold stock rally.
2011.07.01 The internal continues to improve. The OBV continues to show some positive leadership. But these are just superficial. Without gold and silver actual rally, the stocks will be just limping.
2011.06.24 The internal is not bad. It is just the optic for gold stocks are bad. Some of them went to far head of the value that it makes the index advanced too much but the decline has no indication to stop. Not a good time to buy in general.
2011.06.17 The indices do not rise. This is weak. But the OBV rises. This signal a bottom out. The downward momentum is subsided but not vanished. So the situation looks bad but we may have to wait a bit to confirm the bottom. It seems there is a 30% to go further down.
2011.06.10 The precious metal stocks are very much in trouble because of lacking confident. Gold has returned to U$1,500 level. This does not provide any comfort or confirmation because the production cost is edging higher when the inflation and energy are leaping forward. The rate of change between gold and energy must have a clear gold winner to lead the gold stock out. This will be a big inflationary scenario that pushes precious metals up.
2011.06.03 The stock is lagging behind the metal because of lacking confident.
2011.05.27 After the gold price returns to the U$1,500 territory, the confident in gold and silver shares are building up. We see the index and the OBV climbing
2011.05.20 With the stabilizing of the precious metals, gold stocks are stabilizing but there is no heavy buy but accumulation persistent.
2011.05.13 A bad week for the gold stocks but not the worst. Fundamental is not observed. The stocks are much more vulnerable.
2011.05.06 The indices are forming a big top. The OBVs show dumping. Can we argue that we are trading sideway. No. The confident is not there. But we have to consider with all these negative indicators exist so long why there is not catastrophic break down. The longer the pattern, the top becomes sideway. If Gold climbs back above U$1,500, the confident will push gold stocks higher.
2011.04.29 If gold stocks are really cheap by comparison to the metal, why OBV shows selling. People are cashing in. If the institutes do not long gold, they will sell the gold stocks by the equity of thumb to take the profit. The market will have less money in the gold equities. When Barrack buys Equinox, it tells people how difficult to boost the top and bottom lines through just gold. To bring the cost down while the energy price jumps multiples, you need co-product cost to lower the production cost of gold or silver. Barrack does not own much of silver mine other than getting silver as a by-product. So it is logical to supplement the profit by base metals. This tips off the gold producers on how to improve the bottom line. For those cash-rich base metal producers, the converse could be true. They can buy gold mines to supplement their income especially those have gold bullion in their inventory. Base metals producers could lunch or being lunched.
The two indices show a very cautious buy. Judging from the volume, it could be some institutional small buy. We may see the floor of the gold stocks short term.
2011.04.21 I would not call the gold stocks rally. I only can say they have advanced gingerly. This is not a boldly go but just tip toeing being pushed by the higher gold price. Until we see gold stock advance as gold pull back, we know the confidence is there.
2011.04.15 Goldcorp continues to be the hero while some of its peers falls. Its mysteriously why gold rally but gold stock remains lacking the trust as its metal. Only individual may be hero but this could not lift the market. Even Archly has a soft spot. Anyway, we have to watch the small correction and be cautious.
2011.04.08 Goldcorp pushes the indices higher. Newmont also. However, with all these pushes, CGSI remains below all time high while UGSI continues to make new high. With a strong OBV and volume and the right 200MA, the gold share may benefit the Canadian investors some time soon as long as gold can stay above U$1,440.
2011.04.01 This is a very confused era. The gold is pushing higher but the gold stocks are hesitate. There are moments of strong buy but vanishes at the first sign of weakness. The weak confident has been demonstrated well with rare closing at peak of the the day. Everyone wants to take the daily profit and run. Anyway, the price is upward movement is not supported by the volume but the downward movement is helped by the volume. This 20% advance is over a year which is really lacking behind the gold stock. A silver stock index may be needed to track the silver stocks.
2011.03.26 Gold stocks have some excitement this week but not as much fun yet. It is remaining in a traders' paradise which goes not where. The deflational fear is caused by the inflation of cost (labour and material). We have enjoy years of low material cost, especially energy, now is the time to get use to the higher cost. Mining industry suffers it front and centre. Ten years ago, gold price could have coproduct price less than $100. Now it is very difficult to have it under U$700 while the gold price only rose 4 times. The margin is down from 75% to about 50%. This creates the double to invest in miner not to mention the huge finding and capital investment. This situation could create a difference from the Great Depression when gold producer enjoyed very low and material deflation. Although we have a higher demand but the higher demand comes from the BRIC which does not have infinite price acceptance. Invest in gold producer remains a stock picking game. Newmont should benefit from the doubling of the gold price but the price is not much different from 10 years ago. Junior 10 years ago such as Kinross did have a brilliant moment but now remains the same level for three years.
2011.03.18 Without the help of the charts above, we can read the gold stocks are weak. With the OBV's help, we see buyer is in. This is reflected on the strong price movement on Thursday and Friday. Until the OBV rises above the price, the upward momentum remains sporadic.
2011.03.11 Gold stock is weak. You can argue the reason but the performance is the bottom line. This is deflational.
2011.03.05 Gold made new high but not the gold stock indices. The gold in the ground should reflect the value of the gold miner but the price says another way. There is no gold miner making historic new high because people are worrying the cost of production to be fueled by the inflation which could hurt the bottom line. This is not a good argument because the cost is only part of the price of gold. If gold price maintains the gain at the rate of inflation, the profit part also increase. The margin remains. The problem is the profit part is not as good as advertised. To choose a good gold miner, we should examine the production cost carefully. The best gauge is the real cost not the co-product price which adding too many factors. There is also sentiment issue. If the mass investors (especially the retail) do not believe in gold, gold stock will not be the choice of funds. The demand may not be there. Sometime, equity could be traded below their net asset value (NAV). But I don't think big gold minors are. Their valuation is questionable.
2011.02.25 Gold stocks remain weak.
2011.02.18 The rally for gold stocks may have legs. It is the consequence of higher gold price. Profit will be improved with little help from higher energy price. In general, the energy impact on gold stock profit margin will be significant but it could be kept in bay for a short while. This is the overhang of gold stock. Once the psychological effect wears off, the rally will be steady.
2011.02.11 It is interesting that the price and OBV diverts. OBV has to be respected because it shows the direction of money. Until there is strong buy volume, the rally is more subtle and vulnerable or pretentious.
2011.02.04 On the surface, gold price rebounded. OBV shows it is distribution. Gold share rally is not prime time yet.
2011.01.28 Gold stocks are saved by the Friday bell. It rebounded. New few weeks are key. Any unfavourable new will push the stock down again until gold back to the U$1,350 level firmly.
2011.01.22 Gold stocks are in confused state and will continue to be stayed away by big buyers. But this could be proved to be the buying opportunity for very long future. There is no rush into it.
2011.01.08 It remains lack of confidence. The precious metals stocks are becoming very sensitive to the change. Even silver stocks have 30% corrections while gold stocks doing the 20%. If we are careful, we can see the greater high and higher low. This could be trader's heaven until the break up triggered by the metal.
2010.12.31 Gold stock is very pedestrian. No big jump and no leading upward. If the future precious metals rise, now is the best time to accumulate the stock. If the rally fizzles, it is reflected by today's gold stock behavior. Does the gold stock telling us something.
2010.12.25 Gold is quiet. Gold stock is even more quiet. It is impacted by the tight capital market. With the rising cost of production and lower grade of the ore, the production cost will be high. The price of gold is pushed up by the cost and the cost is pull up by the cost of material. A vicious circle that does not have the price of gold and gold stocks lined up. Usually gold stock lead the metal but not this era. People are hold gold or is it? Specific stock like Eldora jumped 4 folds during the period gold double while Newmont does not thing for the last 5 years. We can observe that the size of the company does not really drive the price up. The management team changes so that growth may not maintain. Barrack price gains more than 100% in 5 years which is better performed than Newmont. Both indices are at the top and showing either a plateau or roll over sign but the 200MA is steady. So we can expect the rise will continue but no big surprises. If the economy dips, it may be different because the hold of equity is widespread, directly by retail investors or through pension. The bad time will call for the selling of good stuff to raise money. Gold stock is not rich's privilege anymore.
2010.12.18 In a clear day, we see the far mountain. Gold stocks clouded by the U$ crisis, Euro crisis, economy crisis and unpredictability of the mining operation. The major fund managers have to attract the investors who may not like precious metals. So the uncertainty is created a shroud around the gold stocks. Silver stocks are much clearer boosted by the JP Morgan silver short covering. As we progress to New Year, the change in favour of gold and silver stocks will be more apparent.
2011.01.14 Gold stocks affected by gold price fall precipitously. No a pretty sign. However, the volume surging. It is the sign of pre-bottoming. When gold shows solid bounce, we could see an explosive gold stock rally.
2010.12.11 On Monday, both indices high all time high. This signal the demand of gold stock is persistence; it is not because of the devaluated U$. In fact the U$ is not losing ground with the advance of the gold stock which has been lagging behind for a very long time. It is time to play catch up. With the OBV holding up, the confident is there when the stock pulls back with lower volume. Should this be a top, the volume will rise as people exit the asset class.
2010.12.04 Gold stocks have been lagging the metal significantly. If this is a market psychology, the general sentiment has improved slightly. This is indicated by the strong pull back when gold price hitting a new high. The OBV tells similar story with a very slow change of sentiment. Silver stock is just go wild. It just like the 2000 high tech stocks. Price could gain 50% in weeks with high volume. Eric Sprott indicates there is U$6B short in silver at COMEX. If so, the reserve in the ground will be a good hedge for those short. Of course, they will not care about that. The shorties are selling at the COMEX. The long john buy the stocks. This seems a pair of traide rather than true investment. Riding on the wrong side could be lethal. However, if silver is suppressed, then long will be a good trade.
2010.11.26 Slowly but truly, the tide has change. The gold stock investor is not so chicken and easily scared away. We see the OBV of the index leveling even when the gold price drops. Once the plateau complete, the accumulation will start.
2010.11.19 One has to respect silver. The correction this week was hard. Gold too. But gold did not recovery much. Silver is fully recovered. USD has been high so the gold will stay at current level slightly longer. As the result the gold stock continues the trading range with very gentle upward trend but all the silver stock are explosive. A silver stock index will be added in this site.
2010.11.12 Stock has been lagging the metal for a very long time. It is also very sympathy with the market. This week the price of gold stock remains very fragile. As soon as the gold price correct, the selling of gold stock trigger. However, the volume shows it is an accumulation. So care should be exercise not to be too paniky.
2010.11.05 Stock remains behind the metal. While metal continue to rally, gold stock selectively retreat. This reflects the lack of confidence. While the gold price made a few new high, the gold shares barely make it on Thursday and immediately pulled back. We understand the metal will continue the journey so this is good time to accumulate the gold stocks. HUI, XAU and my index is now facing a glass ceiling that may take some times to break. But silver stock is totally all bet on table and free range. Many jump 30% in one week.
2010.10.29 Stock is now significantly lagging the metal. With the new high gold price, profit margin of the producer is significantly enhanced. There are senior producer increasing the dividend while the junior producer start to pay dividend. However, no price jump for gold stock. Silver stock is just the opposite. They jumps dearly.
2010.10.23 Confidence in gold stock is weak. This is shown by two facts. The first is the big round top and the second is the strong drop of OBV when the gold price corrects. If gold stock correlates to gold price in the long run, this is the opportunity to accumulate. If correlationship does not exit, this is distribution. If this is distribution, why the OBV moves up when the gold price rally? May be it is confidence.
2010.10.15 Canadian and American treat the gold stocks differently. Canadian is less enthusiastic. American is more in love. The story is told by the volume. Volume is rising in America. Usually the American will push the market. Lets wait and see. Anyway, the juniors toke a breath. When they resume, we can see the senior resume.
2010.10.08 Canadian gold stock finally getting more exciting than the American cousin. The break above the 400 of CGSI will create great firework. It is also excite to see the CGSI is now higher than the UGSI which signals CGSI returns better value.
2010.10.01 Smart buyers are in. In the States, they are not that subtle like the Canadian. None the less, the gold stocks have quite a bit of selling pressure but each time down, it bounced back strong. It gold stocks do not in sympathy with the U$, we can see much high.
2010.09.24 Smart buyer is entering the gold stock market.
2010.09.17 Gold is higher. CGSI is higher but CGSI & UGSI OBV are lower. This is the sign of selling. The actual behavior are different. CGSI has been in lower volume trading downward than the high volume today. We may hit the bottom. However, the UGSI is the opposite. The erratic USD could skew the upward trend of the gold stock. HUI has been very positive but volatile. When gold continues to climb, the profit margin will be high enough to pay dividend competing utility. Relatively, the corporate may be difficult to continue the dividend practice. By then, gold stock could enter the panic buy phase.
2010.09.10 The traditional role of gold stock has resumed. Gold stock is leading now. For the last few weeks, the stock signals what is in front of us. If this is true, we going to see smart buying of gold and gold stock which means the price may not move much.
2010.09.03 CGSI has been leading the UGSI because the C$ was back down from the par. Now the U$ starts to show weakness, more and more investment is moved into gold stocks because higher price means a much higher profit increase at the current sweet spot. The gold stock starts to have a taste of speculation.
2010.08.27 The OBV is up but the volume is down. Tradition reading says that the up trend has not support. For solid fundamental asset this does not have to true. On one side of the argument is that there is not crazy buy. On the other side of the coin is that the gold bug does not sell. There is no mass buy and sell but there is only accumulation. In such situation, the rising OBV jives with the price rally should be valid. We should reject and worry if this is a glass top.
2010.08.20 The depressing gold stock market may have a break. The gold stock is sort of leading the metal. Expectation is building. It is weakly confirmed by the better OBV (above 200MA and showing some parabolic sign.
2010.08.19 The gold stock could not keep up with the metal. Dow Industrial is down 144 points today. This is a panic day so everything that can move has to go. It is especially bad for the American market when panic kicks in. In the Canadian market, the situation is better. UGSI is down 2.74 points or 0.8% but CGSI is up 0.73 point or 0.2%. This is while USD up 14 bps or 0.1%. It is completely counter intuitive in short term but long term could not be changed.
2010.08.13 The OBV shows some weakness but the stocks holding up pretty well when the market collapsed. Gold stocks can only partial detached from the market which means gold stocks are not in favour. From P&F, the trend of OBV is up. There is some buy on dip.
2010.08.10 While gold got hammered the OBV of UGSI has encouraging development. It has a lift off above the 200MA. Although the CGSI is just as lucky. So we have the case that the price and OBV are both rise above the 200MA. Therefore, we may see the gold stocks moving higher.
2010.08.06 Gold stock has been the leader of gold. The OBV has continued to rise in lower volume. Some small accumulation. Nonetheless, the game is on.
2010.07.30 The OBV is the hint for any buyer. On Friday, the OBV turns up. This is a sign of turning around. Does it inspire by the U$13-14 gold price jump? If it is the strength may dissipate. So next week may be a corner stone.
2010.07.23 After almost a whole year of dipping OBV, now the OBV 200MA is flattening slightly. If we could have some more up side on the OBV, the indices will go higher. Both indices have just dipped below the 200MA and rose. So the odd is on the up side supported by the strong 200MA of indices. There is also a slightly lower of the gold to UGSI ratio but this 200MA has not turn down yet. It is flat at best.
2010.07.17 Gold stocks are now very emotional to both up and down side. Other than fear and greed, it seems short term traders are very active. The small fluctuation of the OBV confirms that. On the whole, concern on the gold stocks and corporations are the same: inflation is high and consumption is low. No accumulation no dramatic upside.
2010.07.09 The market jitter causes the gold shares to fall. Even short covering is weak.
2010.07.03 The indices do not tell the full story. Both indices beaten up as gitter in the market mounts. In light of inflation and deflation, gold demand is creeping up. This is the macro trend. In the last 6 month, gold stocks are recuperated to make another attempt to break the high in last December. However, many other stocks are not doing well. The liquid and profitable are being liquidated to cover the book. Last week was brutal in the sense that many stocks have a very serious hair cut. As always, gold stocks are dumped. The OBV was about to peek above the 200MA which is started to bottoming. If the OBV could be improved, then the selling pressure of gold stock is subsided or may even suppressed if optimistic. However, if the trust of gold is not firming up, gold stock could suffer another major blow to go lower. It should be noted that although the U$ is higher relative to C$, but the CGSI goes high which is reflected by the CGSI OBV and UGSI OBV. However, the change is subtle. We need more evident.
2010.06.25 Gold stocks may turn around as shown by the upward OBV. It is even more significant that the OBV cuts above the 200MA. If this sustains, the gold shares will shake off the rest of the market and follow the gold's upward movement.
2010.06.12 WTI and NG have experience an adjustment period. WTI is bobbing up and down at the 200MA. NG still hangs above 200MA. There is a very good chance to hold above 200MA during the summer. If there is another Horizon accident, you can bet both WTI and NG will shoot high.
2010.06.12 The range of the gold stock indices have been adjusted to show more details. The recent actions are good. The OBV is up to support the upward price.
2010.06.12 Gold stocks is now floating in the same direction of gold which is a very good sign as gold price ascends. The volume remains low indicates the investment is mainly the retail investor. Any spike could very possibly the short covering only.
2010.05.28 With gold getting very strong, gold stock should be strong. The strength should be reflected by the OBV. But the CGSI-I OBV has shown the weakness that indicates strong selling. But the UGSI-I is up. A discretion between two markets. One should also check the buy strength is not too strong for the American market.
2010.05.21 The action of OBV jives with the price action of the gold stock and the market. It may be meaningless to argue weather the selling action matches the price fall. The important point is that gold stocks have gain so much that they deserve a minor correction. With the strong action of gold, the gold stock could not be too far behind. But the law of physics could not be denied. The bear will push down the stock market temporary due to many factors. So far no technical levels are violated. Stay put.
2010.05.14 Technical has been improved significantly as the OBV turns higher. The ratio of gold to stock index is also declining ever slightly but very persistent. So it is time for the gold stock to catch up.
2010.05.07 It seem that this time could be different. The gold stocks may not fall in sympathy with the market. At the end of the week, they behave just like stock. So gold stocks may not be the best way to park money.
2010.04.30 Last week, there is an early sign of increase in interest of gold shares. In the past, the gold stocks are in sympathy of the stock. In the last two days of this week, gold shares are not sold in sympathy of the market. This change has been reflected by the upward direction of the OBV. The new trends has to be validated by the volume which continues to improve.
2010.04.24 Just in a week, the OBV for CGSI and UGSI are turning rapidly. Is this part of the volatility or a true bottoming? If gold stock is rising to bull, it will be counter conventional wisdom which calls for increasing trading volume. The volume for the gold stock are reducing. This is not following the rule.
2010.04.16 Gold stocks are sold when the turmoil in financial market get ugly. Still not a good entry point.
2010.04.09 As gold becomes steady, gold stock recovers along with the market.
2010.04.02 Strength of gold may be reflected by the the strength of gold share which is lacking. Although the dumping has been slowed down but there remains no buyer. Technically, CGSI and UGSI have a top head and shoulder which is hardly an optimistic sign.
2010.03.26 Gold stock dumping slows down on Canadian market but accelerate on the American market. Market internal is weak. A lot of people pull out the money.
2010.03.19 Gold stock dumping resumes.
2010.03.13 The gold stocks are not bullish. The gold bug stock index HUI shown above tells a bearish story. It is consistent with the UGSI and CGSI chart. This could either mean money out of the gold stock market or heavy short. A quick visit to www.shortsqeeze.com finds many gold stocks have reduce the short position. This is also align with the volatile behavior of the gold stocks during the day. Is this the bottom the shorties try to balance the book? This is the conjecture until gold price could be solidly bottom out which is not showing yet.
2010.03.06 With the recovering of the precious metals, gold stocks' depressing time could be turned around. There is some sign of early short covering for gold stocks. As the result, both indices return above 200MA. The bottoming process remains fragile. Unlike the precious metals forming a base, stocks have yet to accomplish this but with the help of stock market recovery, we may be closer to the bottom than before.
2010.02.26 Gold stock bottoming may have been started with the help of some buying.
2010.02.19 Gold holds up or advance slightly but the stocks are not following. There is dumping that prohibits the rise of gold stock. These selling are heavy.
2010.02.12 It is a surprise to see the recovery of the indices and the toe-holding of the OBV. The quick return is a good sign but without the confirmation of the rising OBV, it is just another mirage that may tease investor to another heart attack event.
2010.02.06 Among all these negative signs, there are a number of positive turn for indicators that shows the dumping of the gold stocks may have slow down if not stopped. The RSI has gone as low a single digit to above the 30 which is very positive. On Friday, there is a non-confirmed bottom signal which is better than continue falling. The OBV has turned up rather than falling. The 20% downward correction could be a good number to turnaround. This has been the most severe gold stocks correction since June 2009. Relatively, the indices are about 40% high since today.
2010.01.30 Smart money has dump the gold stock for awhile. Something is going on.
2010.01.22 Gold stocks have rich values. They have been swirling at the top. After losing 11-12% both indices signal an unconfirmed bottom. This may be temporary relief but could be a real turning point. Looking from the perspective of market psychology, things could deteriorate further until the financial smog is settled down.
2010.01.15 The bottom of the price line is higher. The top has H&S. Caution warrant during the precious metal is in a sideway pattern.
2010.01.09 Stocks are very fragile. Even with the Canpat deal, the effect was temporary. Gold stocks suppose to lead the market but so far it is still vey hesitate.
2009.12.31 Like the gold price, gold stock indices move up this year. The trend is strong.
2009.12.25 USD Index fell quite a bit during the last two days of a four days week after the astonishing rally from 74 to 78. Gold and shares took a hit but now is recovery time. Payment and settlement could be soon after us.
2009.12.19 We see a unisom in market psychology in the States and Canada. Buying has resumed.
2009.12.12 If stock leads the metal, it is shown by the chart. Trend is still the friend.
2009.12.04 Is this a black Friday for gold and gold stock? May be but this happens before. On Oct 28, 2009 this year, the CGSI dropped 4.3%. The volume was not extraordinary high but less than 200VA. Of course, after this CGSI started to climb from the low point of 310 up to the 390 level yesterday. Even after today drop of 19 point remains at the 370 level. There is different this time. The volume is 80% above the 200VA. This signify a significant but we do not know whether it is panic dumping or bottom buy. Next week will tell. It is important to observe the volume pattern that the volume spiked higher than the average which is usually happens at the bottom.
2009.11.28 As discussed in the precious metal section, gold stocks need a breathing moment to vent the momentum before it endanger itself. In just two trading days (one for American), the indices corrected from the overbought territory to normal although the process had begun at the beginning of the week. This heavy movement brings the indices back to a closer range with the trend line and the 200MA. The rebouncing effect of the precious metal could put a floor on the precious metal in short term until the Dubai Effect is fully exposed. Two scenarios could be unfolded. The first is positive effect on gold and gold stock. This is the normal flight to heaven psychology. The second is dump to pay margin. Dubai has one of the world's gold trading centre; small but sizible. DP World could hold a significant amount of gold. If they are flooding the market for cash, gold price will be driven down. However, this is possible but not probable because China is friend of Dubai. The gold could be sold to China at a discounted price without going through the market. But the investment of DP World may be liquidated which could crash the world equity market.
2009.11.20 Stocks are under tremendous pressure downward but still holding with some strong selling. During the last three days of the week, the dumping has been very serious but by and large, the damage is not severe. In another word, gold shares are at the overbought area but continue to go sideway.
2009.11.13 There was a divergence between the stock and the metal. Now the stock and metal is in converging mode.
2009.11.06 Gold stocks are recovering but looks like short covering more than really buying.
2009.10.30 The price says the gold stocks is holding but the OBV says distribution is very seriously. Does OBV leading the fall of the price. We have to watch and see. If not, such serious distribution will weight down the gold stocks sooner or later. The indices is now at the level of just about to breakdown.
2009.10.23 Precious metals are forming a peak or a base. Only time can tell. But stocks are not taking any chance or it is due to involunteered liquidation. If precious metals are accumulated, there is no good reason to sell gold stocks. Yet gold stocks could be more susceptible to inflation. Is the fall of gold stock indicates inflation is rallying?
2009.10.16 Stocks have been jumping from dumping to buying. It is trader's dream. The more interesting is the channel that the trend line travels up. Don Coxe has suggested to hold metal in the expense of the stock. He is seeing uncertenty.
2009.10.10 There was as small increase on accumulation but sold off continued on Friday. With the precious metal at new high, shorties remain in control. When we see the advance of stock by 5-10% again, this may be the short covering.
2009.10.04 After all the dumping of commodities or commodity stocks last fall, the dumping of this fall does not reduce in size in anyway. The major difference this time is the price has not been dramatically reduced. Relatively, it holds up better than last time with more dumping than last July. So far, the magnitude of dumping the stocks is near the level in October last year. But this could accelerate. However, we should also take into the consideration of more stable gold price. This could stabilized the gold stock prices. The dumping of gold stocks has been disguised by the relative high gold stock prices which is a good sign. Alternatively, if the price fall, it could be a sharp V-shape in and out case. This has occurred a couple of time last and this year. The dumping could come from the shorties. If they failed to drive down the price, the short covering will be spectacular, as usual.
2009.09.26 The share of precious metal stacks falls more than 10% in some cases. Panic is growing before October. However, the panic sell is still limited. No spiked up volume which may come next week if the G20 meeting has any material announcement.
2009.09.20 Anticlimax or top out. No matter what, some money off the table is not a bad practice.
2009.09.12 There is a major change (not necessary the game changing level) on the gold stock. Both indices advanced to a record high with OBV makes a steep climb. CGSI's OBV turned from down to up while UGSI just climbs a more steep slope. These are sign of panic. Is this panic buy for worry missing the train or short covering. If it is the later, the price will fall just as quick. In a long term, inflation or deflation will make gold stock advance.
2009.09.05 Both indices up more than 10%. If you hold gold shares of some may even exceed this. IAM Gold climbs 20%. Is gold share discounting the possibility of over U$1,000 gold. There is the possibility but gold shares has been beating up quite badly in comparison to base metal shares. The fear of inflation could trigger the short covering which will take 2-4 days to complete the covering. The more realistic status will be seen by next week. Anyhow, both indices peak this week but both are entering the overbought area. With the shorties' covering finishing, the gold shares could be in sideway which is good for future advance. But if the rally does not sustain, it will be corrected violently. It is also important to point out that the OBV for both indices have different polarity. Either there is something strange or Canadian is more careful than American.
2009.08.30 There is a revive of interest on gold stock when gold is going to no where.
2009.08.22 Canadian gold stocks can only be favorable by its leveraging property. The OBV is actually climbing back for both the C$ and U$ gold stocks. This could be the hint of early sign of escaping from the risk.
2009.08.14 Canadian gold stock has this strange distribution pattern. This pattern is different from the pattern using the conventional OBV calculation. The US gold stock is doing better and continue the climbing.
2009.08.08 Volume is up. OBV is up relative to previous peak/trough but actually down quite a bit showing distribution that makes the price metastable. If U$ turns firm, gold stock could face another hit.
2009.07.31 Canadian gold stock is doing better because it does not continue the fall. The repair has not been repaired and still in the process to climb back about the red trend line. OBV has shown distribution until last week. May be it is still too early to confirm big buying.
2009.07.25 The trend line has broken down. Now is in repair mode to recovery. The OBV does not dive along with the index is a good sign. Stronger than average bottom buy is another good sign. The third good sign is the higher than average buy on the way up. All these tell a story of brightening and worry. During this period and pendent formation, there was strong selling until the index touched the trend line. If we take the double bottom as the positive sign than better time may come.
2009.07.18 The index is very toppy with shrinking volume. OBV shows buying precedes the recovery.
2009.07.12 The positive momentum is diminishing. Prudent caution may be exercised.
2009.07.04 The gold stock market is confused because of the two no trading days for the national holidays. As the result the trend line is violated. The RSI in pointing up. Could this be recovered above the trend line next week? May be because Friday trading was very thin. It was only 7.5% of the 200 day volume average.
2009.06.27 The American and the Canadian gold shares have been behaving slightly different. The UGSI has a succession of peak to demonstrate a strong upward momentum. The CGSI is restricted by the increase in value of the Loonie that the peaks are marginally impressive. Three peaks although one higher than the others but remains showing the sign of top out especially 200MA is quite below. The only support is the bottoms are returned to higher level. Should Loonie has a runaway rally, it may not be to CGSI's advantage. Nonetheless, the strong rebound before the weekend is interesting. In order to calibrate the representation of UGSI, HUI is used. An ICKOPF chart of HUI shows same characteristics of UGSI, strong upward momentum. However HUI does not show volume. The rise can be due to small group's speculation. The shrinking of the volume is definitely needed some close attention.
2009.06.20 It is really funny to see the index made a sudden turn higher on Friday when gold price is being suppressed. Now the index end the week without violating the trend line. Without the turnaround, it will. We also see the sudden increase in volume (40%) on Friday. Looks like some one is doing some short covering.
2009.06.13 Gold shares took a beating this week when the financial and other stocks rally. Flight out of the traditional safe heaven to more higher risk adventure. This is enforced by weaker precious metal but silver is definitely not weak.
2009.06.06 The gold stock is definitely in favour of the metal because it has been leading. The 200MA is a very important indicator. Its current trend is up for both Canadian and American gold stocks. It may come as a surprise for the Canadian gold stocks because gold price in C$ is on a slippery downward slope. So should we trust the chart or not? It should be noted that, when the gold future is down to U$944 on May 28, there was about 68,000 traded at NYMEX. It looks like a bottom buy.
2009.05.29 CGSI has been topy. Finally we have a break up but it has to hold next week. It has to point out that although gold in C$ does not move but the Canadian gold stocks move just as exciting as the American counter part. This is contrasting the price of gold in C$. Anyway, the break up is very powerful.
2009.05.21 Gold shares are moving long but the participants are still small crowd.
2009.05.18 USD Index collapse has a positive effect on the gold stock. While the U$ is high relative to gold but C$ falls to make the stock more attractive in C$. As such, the CGSI recovers from the breakdown. Yet we see the movement is very pedestrian as indicated by lower volume.
2009.05.10 The down trend of the gold stock took a reversal, a big one but the interest is low. Volume is not high. If nobody sells, the volume is low. Again the investor is not rushing into the gold stocks.
2009.05.02 The trend is not your friend. Gold stock 200MAs dip. It may need 6 months to repair.
2009.04.24 Finally, the down movement has a break. The recovery is slow buying but it still a turnaround.
2009.04.18 Gold stocks follow the cue from the gold metal moving downward. The correction is about 25-30%. This is becoming very challenging when the financial stocks are doing very well. If there is any comfort, we see the volume increases as the index lower to RSI 20 area. However, no momentum change. The interesting point is that last trough there was high volume but last peak was no high volume. Accumulation?
2009.04.10 The gold stocks attempted a recovery before the weekend but not very convincing. Wait until next week to see how the U$ performs. It may need a few more days to finish the U$ for quarterly trade settlement.
2009.04.04 There was a gold stock sell off before the weekend due to the rise of the financial and the fall of the yellow metal. However, we see there was not top sell but there is accumulation on the decline. The selling is also dried up a bit on Friday. May be the correction does not go too far. The only significant factor is the double top. Lets see how far this correction goes.
2009.03.28 The CGSI's one day decline did not form a downtrend. But the two days down may be. We have to agile about this due to a temporary correction in gold which most probably already happened.
2009.03.20 The CGSI has a first day of decline. It takes two days to confirm the peaking. The pull back could be safe action before the weekend. Next week will be interesting to see if the trend line holds.
2009.03.14 The gold stock collaborate with the gold bullion story: financial rally is temporary. No body selling off gold stock.
2009.03.07 If volume tells the buy/sell pressure we see the buying/selling pressure must increase at the due course of gold stock volatility. In the big picture, the volume continues to rise. There are a few major volume contraction below the 200MV immediately before or after the fall. The current situation is that the volume action is above the 200MV on a upward trend of the 200MA. Is this the tour de force of buying pressure? The PF of CGSI is different story. The average volume of the period is higher than the peak or trough. The trend change when sell or buy exhaust. A characteristic of bull top or bear bottom. Or the top or trough are illusion. We should focus on the average which is the major trend.
2009.03.01 Strong upward trend for gold stock has not change despite the pull back. The index chart seems a pullback but the P&F shows the up trend is intact.
2009.02.21 On October 27, 2008, CGSI corrected to 129.58 which is only 26 points above 103.69 on May 16, 2005. It would be a brave soul to invest in gold shares because the return for 3 and a half years was wiped out. If you are not on margin, even you buy it at last high around 300, it is better off than holding other classes of equity because you do not lost money. We could see a 20% correction in action which may span a few days. This is violent. According to Richrad Russell, these violent movements are typical for bull action. So does a crumbling market. This time it is very important that gold share does not fall in sympathy with the the financial which is showing in this bank chart.
2009.02.15 Dow is coming down to challenging the low resistance. The approach is ferocious. In the last few months, when this happened, gold stock was in sympathy with the Dow. Not this time. The trend line is clearly pointed up. Last Friday's pull back is the typical behavior after an all time high of CGSI at 318 on Thursday. With CGSI breaks its double top last year, this break out is significant to support the gold bull trend.
2009.02.08 Strong U$ continues to help the CGSI to perform while the UGSI is not really impressive. If the hypothesis that gold share will shot up to catch gold when gold holds above U$900 is true, we still have to consider the U$ rally have to finish otherwise no one has the spare change to buy gold share. The U$ carry trade has to continue to unwind. It is important to see the up volume is not peaking but continue to decline at this catchup mode. At peak of price, there should be top selling. When rally, there should be up volume to show the demand. At this stage, there is no big sell off to damp the share rally is a good thing. Nerd theory does not apply. Complement of Murray Pollitt, you may want to read his excellent analysis on gold share today.
2009.01.31 The gold stocks may be rallying without attention. The index chart and P&F chart shown a deep V recovery. Waiting for the break up or break down. It is much more likely to the up side than the down side.
2009.01.26 CGSI is testing the top. A true break up will be very bullish. A p&f of CGSI is shown this week.
2009.01.17 Can gold stocks have another free fall? It is possible. If so, we have ask the reason why gold stocks rally from the recent low. If gold is a commodity, demand for it seems has not changed. If gold is the barometer of economy, it should rise. There is another reason gold stock could fall: bad company management. Other than the hedge book, gold producers are pretty much well behaves. What about profit? This is the sore point. But remember that gold is higher year over year. So profit is reasonably healthy especially energy price has dropped.
2009.01.10 A very sharp pullback for the stocks from the hell and recovered more than 50%. A pullback is in order. Yet both 200MA is showing positive signs, little by little.
2009.01.02 Gold stocks are making a deep V recovery. Gold:stock relative strength is weakening. It is also falling fast. Both gold stock indices are crossing above the 200MA which is very assuring. The next positive sign will be breaking up above the previous top. This rally looks genuine because it has passed the mid-point already. The other supporting fact is that it happens when the U$ is strong. The only concern is low volume. On balance volume will show there is not enough buying.
2008.12.27 CGSI has been out perform UGSI due to the rally of the U$. But the pattern signify a significant recovery. However, the rise is too steep and too fast. The only positive sign is low volume on the rally, i.e. no selling, but no buying too.
2008.12.20 The index has started to slow down the fall.
2008.12.14 The gold stock is now no in sympathy with the financial. The Canadian banks continue the toilet bowl trip. See the chart.
2008.12.07 Short covering and shorting continue to be the main causes of volatility. Yet, there is a very strong upward movement until the margin clerk works overtime. The chart above could be misleading as it shows a very steep V recovery. Retrospectively it could be true. But for the meantime, it could just be part of a downward channel. The 200MA is not leveling at all.
2008.09.20 The turnaround is not without incident. On Wednesday and Thursday , gold and gold stocks were ambushed. GLD ends the day with 65M and 60M shares changed hands which is about double of the previous high volume and 5.5 and 6 times the 200 day average volume. The huge sell off using GLD as the vehicle trigger the fear of the falling when Fed announced the series of bailout actions which fundamental fixes nothing or liquidifies nothing for consumers. Will the bailout bless by the creditor from China and Russia and Japan? Possibly. But the attack of gold is simply a mean to allow some investment house to cover their short. Such volatility will continue. The question needed to ask is the jump in volume meaningful? Partly. Yet it is important to see the continue climbing of volume and price which shows the true rally. In comparison to bank stocks, both have price and volume up. But the unproportionally up in volume is just panic buy (for short covering) that equivalent to panic sell. There is another point that Richard Russell says about bottom: no body know it has arrived. Now everyone talk about the bank and hardly anyone talk about the gold (and shares) bottoming, it could be it. The classic technicians' rule is to buy on the confirmed change of direction not at the change of direction. This could only be reviewed afterward not at the moment.
2008.09.14 Is this a turning point for gold shares that it does not sympathize with the financial? As long as the financial sector holds the gold share, it is the only thing they could dump to cover their margin. Gold stocks are still vulnerable. JP Morgan and Stanley and Goldman Sachs hold huge amount of gold stock and precious metal contract future and they can short as much as they like. There is no protection until they are drained.
2008.09.07 Are we repeating last August? If so, things may be getting better from here on. But the election would mean bad news for gold sector.
2008.08.30 The heavy volume at the bottom may be a genuine valley. The worry part is the shrinking in volume. There is no short covering for sure. The low volume does not support a quick rally yet the indices continue to recover.
2008.08.24 When Gold Eagle announces the great >40 g/t discovery the gold stock was led the downward gold price momentarily. This reflect nothing change for the fundamental but the psychology is in play. For months gold stock falls in sympathy with the financial, investors have no confident and have to stand sideline. When we see the volume and the price trend tilts upward, this would be the sign of bottom.
2008.08.16 Stock led a short lived pop up before gold and then lagging the fall of the metal after weeks of amplified fall. Volume spiked after the first low of the week but the second low show resistance to the strong down draft of the metal and stay just above the low. If the first low create capitulation, the second definitely show some contro. Repairing will take time.
2008.08.11 Gold stock continues its amplified sympathy with the gold's fall. Like Don Coxe said enjoyed the weather but did not give up.
2008.08.03 Consolidation and higher production prices scare any one have not faith to store wealth away. Only a small group of insight investors are holding on. After reporting earning for 2008Q2, Goldfield's share dropped 15%. Stock selection is much more important than any time in investment history.
2008.07.26 This is not necessary the happy week of gold stocks investors. The stocks firm up a bit before the metal. The volume is starting to look an up trend which is a precursor requirement of rally but it could also the precursor of a sell off.
2008.07.21 Gold stocks decline may not be escaping money to buy financial. Last week, GS, JPM, and many others were falling. It could be margin call. Anyway, it has been stabilized. A trend of less volatile when financial falls has established. Money may move back to gold stocks as Canadian banks are peaking. See this chart.
2008.07.12 Gold stocks are less sympathy to the financial this week which is a change. It is the energy stocks that suffer. Could it be the end? Some very powerful group can keep on selling without cover the short. Nothing is for sure except playing it defensively.
2008.07.06 Gold stocks are under pressure again when the financial is in trouble which should not be the case according to Don Coxe. However, the market can be in solvency longer than we can.
2008.07.03 EIA published the numbers. Oil backed off a few hours and made new record yesterday and today to just under U$146. NG consolidates to prepare for its ascend to U$16 by the end of summer. The strength of the U$ does not reflect on the commodities but the stocks. If the commodities represent the wealth why the stock is being sell-off? Margin call could be the answer. With the weakness of the U$, export to American could be in question. Canada is under the grip of NAFTA, NG has to export to American with a reasonable price, i.e. cheap. But others do not have to. There is a good chance to break the old $15 old record helped by Katrina if there is any interruption caused by weather.
2008.06.29 Gold stocks get a shot in the arm or should I say the gold stock Popeye eats the green spinach (U$). As a general rule of thumb, playing with momentum is dangerous. Newton's Law of Physics: action equals to reaction.
2008.06.22 Gold stock investors are in agony again. While gold price recover 2-3% by the week but there is less joy for the gold stock investors. It is only up 1-2%. Where is the leverage? The cupid is the American financial again. The broad sold-out of the financial stocks drag down gold stocks and energy which is counter-intuitive. This is the reason why we have to have some powder dry for these moments or may be not.
2008.06.15 Gold stock investors are in pain two way. Gold price is suppress when inflation is surfacing. Traditionally gold will just do its faithful duty of getting higher price. Those producers have reserve in ground would literally grow money in the ground. The second painful thing about gold stock is that it is being short when the Financial is down. There will be one day short covering will be called just like delivery will be called in the future market. By then the price will not be parabolic, it will be vertical which is unhealthy.
2008.06.07 Gold stocks are the sympathizer of the American financial stocks on the down side. Even with the excellent gold action, they are pulled back along with the American financial stocks at the end of the day. As long as someone can short the gold stocks, I guess there is nothing you can do it until the naked guy caught with no pants not just down. Structurally, the gold stock is not entering an explode or bust critical situation. I think it is more likely to explode after some struggle. Just a chorus to yesterday's note on not all gold stocks are created equal. Newmont has been left out for this boom so far. But it does not mean out of the game yet. Barrack seems leading the pack after come clean with no more hedging but in fact its hedging book still huge. There are too much hidden information that make the investors confused and vulnerable. It is just a mine field.
2008.06.06 ** All stocks are not created equal. Gold Field did not end up any gain today while Goldcorp gains more than 4%. Selection and patience is important. Gold Field's day may come later but currently African producers are suffered. **
2008.06.01 Gold stocks have a very rough ride in May. The volatility may not finish. Buying opportunity may be vanishing as the metal/index ratio 200MA is flattening. Could this be a foresight or is this just a statistical illusion? Gold stock has been performed badly due to the rise of cost (i.e. labor, energy, transportation and xyz inflation). If you buy this story the price of gold has to go up which means the value of those producers have large reserve will worth more. Similarly, those junior producer or explorer will have more in the bank.
2008.05.23 It may be slow but the turnaround continues when the yellow metal continues its volatile recovery. Both indices are recovered above the 200MA. The ratio has also closer to the 200MA. The 200MA of ratio says the metal still out perform the stocks. It is very comforting that although the American financial stocks have been hampered the gold stock did not do too bad. Perhaps these American big banks are close to finished selling the majority of their holding. These people are clever. If they recognize the value they will not dump the stocks.
2008.05.16 Which one is leading this time, the metal or the stock? The stock market continues hampered by the bad performance of the American financials. Other than the occasion that metal falls, the rally of the gold stock is suppressed. This is no exception last week. But the most important event for last week is the return of the Jedi (back above the 200MA). The integrity of the stock bull maintains during the last few months; it still trends upward. Speculative activity in the American market is again high. This is a puzzle. The recent rally of financial has been singled out by Richard Russell as the indicator that the market has discounted the worst because no low is created. The same happened in January until March. According to the Dow Theory, it could not be back to a bull unless you better the previous high. We have not seen that yet. I would be more cautious to treat the financial rally as the bear market rally. This means the opportunity to buy cheap gold stock.
2008.05.09 The most recent head and shoulder spell may finish the work.
2008.05.02 The gold stocks show very good recovery on Friday but the USD continues to rise which is a contradicting picture. Someone has to give.
2008.04.28 The chart has been rearranged to show information better. Last week, both indices were hit by the up turn of financial stocks. Yet the volume is not very high which could mean money are moving out but not everyone. Gold stocks are dumped when the market fall. Gold stocks are dumped when other sector rallies. The stock nature and out of favour situation makes gold stocks vulnerable. Anyway, the inflation will kick in soon. With that gold stock could be back.
2008.04.20 The head and shoulder does not show on the stock index. If stock is the future time machine then it shows precious metal is in a trading range while stocks are trading in a very steep upward channel which explains the big swing of the stock price; a signature of bull market. Even with the incredible return of the financial sector, gold stock remains its strong trend.
2008.04.13 It has been proven that gold stocks are the store of wealth for many investment banks and hedge fund because whenever they have a fall, gold stocks have a fell off when it should be up. So the blood has not run clear when the sub-prime venom is still at high concentration.
2008.04.05 Gold stocks are shown strong sign of recovery but not everything created equal. Like Prof. Ron Meisels said selection, selection, selection.
2008.03.30 Gold fell from U$1,030 to U$903 but closed the week at U$930.
2008.03.22 Correction is a normal function of the market. Technically speaking the indices were too far from the 200MA. If it breaks down then there is another story. The critical event will be the pass of the 200MA.
2008.03.14 Finally the gold stocks have it life when the bank stocks falls; no more fall in sympathy with the financial. But be careful, desperate situation calls for desperate action. Some banks may still have some gold stocks. Among the pack, IAG, HMY and ELD suffer at different level. NMC is just not responding at all. ABX's book is not really clean but it moves anyway. So stock selection is very important.
2008.02.29 Gold stocks continue in sympathy with the stock market but with less dependency. The relationship is waning until all the trouble financial institutes' gold stock holding dry up. There is sign for the dry up as the metal to index ratio is going down. This week it is sunk below the 200MA but not much. The channel of the indices remain upward strongly. If there is a black swan, what is it?
2008.02.23 Cost of gold production has haunted gold producer for last couple of years due to the inflation of labour, energy and material (like truck). The 30% gain in gold price in 2007 could improve the margin well to those extreme high production cost producers. The recent quarterly and annual results are show the effect. However, you still have to manager the company profitably.
2008.02.18 Gold shares has been moving in sympathy with the financial which is counter-intuitive. When financial is in trouble why would people not move to less risk gold shares (I am making an analogy of gold to cash as gold shares to financial shares). Yet John Budden persistently emphases not to confuse the bull market with brain. By picking the right stock it creates the opportunity to buy the gold share at discount. Among the gold stock index members, we observes some have trouble because of either geographic or production or labour problem. But it is not all created equal.
2008.02.10 Gold shares again pulled down by the American financial sector's weakness. This week the co-relationship is fading as gold shares are significantly lagging the yellow metal. However, investment in gold share should take into the consideration of many other factors. IAM Gold falls more than 10% because it's French project permit was not approved without explanation. The location of project plays a heavy factors on the value.
2008.01.26 Gold shares are unreasonable beaten up as the American and European market tanked. The rescue style selling may be stopped when these hedge funds and margin accounts collapsed. Gold ETF is not immuned from the selling. It is sold in discount.
2008.01.18 A few days, the gold stock moves nicely independent of the overall market. The strong gain makes the gold stocks more vulnerable when margin call comes in. Involuntarily sympathy.
