2015

2015.06.26 Waiting game. See who is going to blink.

2015.06.12 Battle of U$60 oil continues but there support is building and withstand some attacks. NG should start to improve for the summer. Sign of draw down shows.

2015.05.29 Battle of U$60 continues. A sudden rally of 3.8% on Friday shows how fragile all the entertainyst's theory. NG price finally catches up by the supply. It falls.

2015.05.22 WTI continues to battle around U$60. The longer it stays at this level the higher the instability and creates much high volatility. NG is on track to seasonal price adjustment.

2015.05.16 WTI fases the U$60 resistance. Once broke through to U$62 but falls back to below U$60. It will hold and prepare the second or third attempt to break above U$60. The action will be nail biting. NG has a confirmed bottom signal. The EIA chart for last week already showing a price up despite of the inventory rise. However, the continuing retreat of the energy stocks is nerve racking.

2015.05.08 The rally of WTI comes to an interlude. NG improves slightly but just noise. Energy investment horizon has to be long term.

2015.05.01 WTI continues to push up surprisingly after a very brief rest. NG pops a bit and rest. All in favour of oil. NG will benefit later. OBV is improving for oil.

2015.04.24 Everytime, WTI seems out of steam, it rallys again. The rally has bottomed at U$42.03 and it is U$15 higher now. You cannot this more than 30% gain. The result makes many energy stock doubled from its bottom (Canadian Oil Sand) and a lot make 50% (White Cap). This is a strong evident that the stocks are oversold and so does the oil. How will it end? Everythings are just a game under the control of a few money lord. Retailed investors are the lambs. NG is so weak that no thing will change until June.

2015.04.17 Oil is breaking up. NG is pinned down while supply increaes. Oil recovery is remarkable with all these oil barge crusing around. Checking out the USD vs WTI. The recent action is an exact match.

2015.04.11 Oil continues its attempt to rise. Resistance is tremendous. Everytime it pushes ahead, it is being hammered down. NG is very weak as far as you can see.

2015.04.04 This week the front stages at Middle-East moves from Yemen to Iran. There is fear that Iran's sea boundary could choke off the oil shipment which can endanger the American energy security. This kind of excuse comes out along with the oil glut due to the shale oil from the States is a tipical talking with both sides of the mouth. The extra couple of million barrels a day will drive the prive down but not 50% since last fall. Natural gas is a good example of excess supply lie when the demand of the LNG is demanded everywhere and shipped across the surface of earth.

2015.03.27 Oil has a pop because of Yemen. NG is firm but not really advance. Oil may be stablized around U$46 to $52. A 10% range is normal.

2015.03.13 A second down wave. If it breaks, all hells get loose. The energy industry will drag down the world economy systematically.

2015.02.20 WTI and NG are improving. WTI has stabilized above U$50. U$50 is WTI's support but the resistance is set at U$54.50. It may take some challenge to break above U$54.50. NG get the help from frigid cold weather to improve it demand.

2015.02.13 NG price improves along with the falling of inventory. WTI rebounds as the result of same reason that it went down. The oil rig disappears 15% is a mystery. May I ask where do they go? If shaal oil could not be used, the reserve does not hold. The leak will drain the reserve. Amerian shaal oil companies may face a tough period and may not able to recover because the visible hand of the Arabian.

2015.02.06 NG does not recover under cold weather and snow storm. Oil came off from the bottom around U$44. The chance to challenge U$44 for WTI is depending on how much the shortie wants to sell the paper oil by 2 or 20 times. The fundamental has no say and the COMEX does not represent real market. The real smart oil / energy consumer will take this opportunity to lock down the price.

2015.01.30 The Friday afternoon energy rally shows show fragile and manipulated the market is. WTI went up more than U$3.50. What drove it other than greek and short covering. Retailed investors should stand sideline.

2015.01.23 WTI holds above the support of U$45. NG holding too. So both breaths in and no none let it go yet. Both have blue faces.

2015.01.16 WTI bottoms out. Can it hold? NG rebounds above U$3.00 from below. It it real? All seems good.

2015.01.09 The severe cold weather hits North America so does the downward spiral of WTI. WTI has come to a rest before a rally or swan dive to below U$30. It is more likely to stay at current level for while because energy stocks have started to rebound.

2015.01.02 Oil sinking along with NG. Both are doing badly. The only thing that can stop the black hole journey is exiting the black hole through the white hole which is a theoretical object yet to be found by physicist. So consumers enjoy the low energy cost. At some point the OPEC and non-OPEC guys will blink before their cornea completely dry out and they don't have any vision to the future anymore. As the result, the energy section can collape and they could lead to the systematic collapse of the capital system (banking, bonds and investment) which finance the capital intense energy industry.

2014.12.27 The weak WTI bottom continues. The RSI and MACD show more positive sign. NG is completely beaten up by the unexpected warm weather.

2014.12.19 WTI has a weak bottom. The shortie win this battle. Let's see when the shortie going to start anymore attacks. The low oil prices has kill many new shale oil player. The margin clerk also provided a fair share of huge market lost. It is the now what and wait period.

2014.12.12 NG has been lagging the fall of the oil significantly because there is no NG for OPEC, not completely true. All oil producers some sort of NG producer because NG is a buy product.But winter helps the NG. The following relative strength of oil and NG showing the ratio drops from 22 to 16. The ratio could continue to drop if oil hit sub-$50.

2014.12.07 NG has a major price drop even the storage level continues to fall. This is all co-related to the oil price trading. As the result, volatility plays here. It can back up quick or remains low until January. By that time, it will be competing for the NG, oil price will not be the only factor. WTI and Brent are continued to fall. However, we can see the rate is slowing down. This will not be a short term price hold-down. The long term effect is tremendous. In a webcast by Don Coxe, he pointed out this is to break the Iran's financial support to ISIS in order to protect the Arabian peninsula. Until the unrest is settled, which will not jack up the oil price, the oil price will not resume to the above U$80 level. Don also clarifies some myth about the stale oil. The current production rate is about 1 million barrel per day with the potential to increase to a maximum of 2 million barrels a day in a 90 million a day concussion, the impact is low. By this I believe shale oil will not able to drive the oil price down but can drive the WTI oil down. The consequence is Canadian oil/gas will export to Japan and China which creates bigger fear for the American big brother.

2014.11.28 NG has a major draw down last week indicated by the chart. The price reflected a bit but suppressed by the falling of the oil price. Oil has become a weapon used by the OPEC to force out American's shale oil. According to report, shale oil production cost is between U$60 to U$80 a barrel. There will be no profit for the shale oil companies. Canadian oil sand is between U$40 to U$60. With U$20 discounted price to the WTI, Canadian oil sand production is severely hampered. The low oil price will dry up the capital market for the shale gas which will result the bankruptcy of these oil company. Another report indicated American uses the low oil price to hurt Russian and Iran may not be correct because the American shale oil company will not last long if they don't have hedged long term contracts above U$80. The oil price war may not benefit the consumer. Integrated oil producer may recuperate some of the loss from the refinery product. If the oil price war continues for another 6 months, the stagflation will hurt the economy and halt all reflating with the result of deflation. A strong indicator for man made oil price collapse can be witnessed by the sudden high volume in last couple of weeks. A complex terrorist warfare has started by the Middle-East to de-throne the U$ reserve currency position by showing it strength. The result may be more unrest in the Middle East or more oil field incident to end this war.

2014.11.21 NG rises too fast so does profit taking. It is down this week. WTI is unbelievable directionless. No persistent movement at all.

2014.11.14 NG found the bottom but WTI is fishing the bottom. Old man winter must help.

2014.11.07 The strong U$80 support for WTI has broken and dove father but bounced back above the U$75 support. NG is on its way to recover above U$4.00. Oil is now a weapon target Russian, ISIS, Iraq and Saudi. There will be no supply and demand foundation for this fight. Investors will be the collateral damage while the market maker scooped up big money. In a month, the cold wealth will help the price recovery but may not enough in short term. Energy investors have to be long and with a heart of steel.

2014.10.31 WTI has very strong support around U$80 until it is broken. NG has rebounded.

2014.10.24 Oil and gas remain weak. Nothing will change and the old man winter returns.

2014.10.17 All these vitality just says no fundamental is respected. This is another way to say market manipulation. Demand for future cannot have such a quick and near term effect. How can oil demand dropped a few percent to justify oil falls from above U$90 to below U$80. All closing prices are heavily crafted. The result makes the daily change completely wrong. For example, from Monday to Wednesday, it is always down U$1 to U$2 but the actual price during the day hoover around U$82.

2014.10.10 Oil is free falling. If it tells a story in the future, it should be the future price not spot price. Sweat it out.

2014.10.03 Back to the square 1. No improving but this can be short term, 25%.But it is 75% going down further.

2014.09.26 It is improving.

2014.09.19 Oil and gas are weak as usual. One more month, we may see some interesting change. We should see how oil is also detached to USD. If oil tracks the rally of USD, WTI could be at U$60 range.

2014.09.12 Oil and gas have a dive and slightly coming for air. The volatility is moving the market not the demand and supply.

2014.09.05 NG inventory continues to hoover above the standard model. It drives the price down. The dip is coming about October.

2014.08.29 The weather still warm or even hot but the summer of low price draught could end early. WTI and NG are returning. NG is above U$4.00 again. NG's rally may contributed to the above average drawn down.

2014.08.15 Oil hammered and pinned below U$100 with all the military crisis in Europe and Middle East is unbelievable. Some on making an effort to paint a peaceful picture. When the true comes out, it will be ugly. Oil will lead the rally.

2014.08.08 Oil continues to under U$100 and NG moves up slightly. All in holding pattern. The Ukraine and the Middle-East does not push up the energy price. It is moved by the marketer.

2014.08.01 Oil drops below U$100. This is just short term. NG continues to be lower but not sinking. The market is not in position.

2014.07.26 WTI exhibits abnormal resilience. It keeps on holding above U$100. NG is very weak and nothing can be done until October or until accumulation of NG for the winter starts.

2014.07.18 WTI holds up well and it is only U$3 below Brent which has been making a U$10 lead for last few years. The NG is the casualty. It falls below U$4.00 in the middle of the summer. The NG producers take a big hit. The following Canadian NG producer index chart shows the damage. The NG producer stocks fall to the oversold and could be staying at the oversold regent for some time. There is no bottoming as shown by MACD. The bottoming is not complete is indicated by a weak RSI rally that reverse just above 30.

2014.07.11 Energy commodities take a hit this week. NG and WTI sink. WTI is in range bound. NG could be pushed over the cliff and need some time to recover.

2014.07.04 Energy face a profit taking pullback.

2014.06.27 It is almost July. The strong inventory demand is slowing down. The prices of WTI and NG reflect that. If the momentum fizzle, the Middle East may not improve the WTI. One point that may able to explain why WTI is lower than Brent now. WTI has been either over supply by the lower 48 states or there is not enough pipeline to send to distribute which forcing the railway distribution method which requires higher cost to staging it. As the result, the staging cost is included in the total cost. Therefore the price is lower. Shipping by pipeline still require staging but the staging volume can be less if the pipeline can ship higher volume but turning on the tap.

2014.06.20 Oil pressing upward. NG is moving back and forth but upward due to the low cost comparing to oil. The ratio is about 23 which is way to cheap to ignore because the thermal ratio is one to six.

2014.06.13 An upward trend that can moves higher during the summer. Until WTI breaks above U$108, there is no cigar. NG is not moving up as fast as oil.

2014.06.06 Slow but solid advance.

2014.05.30 Price holding well. Pending for the summer heat.

2014.05.24 WTI has a weekend spike to U$104 in respond to Sino-Russian energy deal or the drop of shale reserve by 96%? EIA's reserve estimation has been a laughing stalk for decade because it is the voice box of government's propaganda. It is unbelievable how Brent can be premium above WTI. The following chart shows the premium is shrinking. This could be the indicator for another WTI summary rally.

NG's stock continues to rise but the price remain stable. The rise of stock is seasonal accumulation but usually influence the pullback of the price.

2014.05.09 WTI downward pressure persists. NG failed the climb. All indicate a weak energy pricing summer. This is supported by a noticeable pullback of the NG price.

2014.05.02 WTI dropped below U$100. This is the result of market randomness. Next week could restore the U$100 level. NG holds on and climbing.

2014.04.26 Oil continues to stick the head above the U$100. NG continues to rally despite the inventory increases. This can be the sign to say NG is undervalue.

2014.04.18 NG and WTI continues the hot weather march. Both rise gently. We should also pay attention to the spread between WTI and Brent has narrowed. This week, the close is only U$5 different which is down from the U$20 spread last year. If the Crimea situation has any influence to the energy price, it is negative.

2014.04.11 Another frustrated but rewarding week. WTI and NG are rally slowly.

2014.04.04 After NG's bear action, it is bottoming for the summer. Oil remains keeping the price above U$100. This could be the trend until temperature warming up.

2014.03.28 NG falls through the U$5 mark. WTI falls through the U$100 but both are fighting back. NG is now bottoming. WTI returns to U$100 despite of the "high inventory". One day people will recognize these "high inventory" means nothing.

2014.03.21 WTI has been shorted but it still comes back. NG is not that lucky BUT money should be on NG. The NG stocks are really booming.

2014.03.14 NG's parabolic action finished by a hard landing BUT the rally is not finish. It will be picked up in a couple of months. Enbridge just applies for a 40% raise in NG price. You can consider more leg for the NG. Oil falls too but this is the period of non-deterministic. Oil will recover after touching U$95.

2014.02.28 NG's parabolic action comes to an interlude. It can be another two months when NG inventory builds up for the summer. Oil holds on to the gain. Next month could be dull drum for the energy.

2014.02.22 NG's parabolic action continues without any weakness. Even the RSI is crazy. It is only at 70. The strong internal momentum can keep it higher or at least sideway at U$6.00 level. The voice of declaring NG dead can be still lingering around when it fell from U$8.00 to below U$2.00. The excuse was LNG was the way to go. If LNG is the way to go and NG demand is dead who supplies the NG? WTI holds above U$100 strong while the inventory report for last week rose 0.1 day. This rise of inventory was started since January 10's report. Are the entertainyst blaming the middle-east crisis again and what crisis? How does it squre with what they claim the "major reduction of demand"?

2014.02.14 NG's run enters the parabolic phase. It has back and forth violently. But the momentum remains positive. So does WTI. NG's interday will be moving from U$0.50 to U$1.00. This irrational behavior demonstrating manipulation and flash trading. WTI has not been that bad but in a very macro way, it is just as violent. WTI has been traded below U$100 when the volume is thin but for the whole week, it closes above U$100 except Tuesday. The closing for the week above U$100 is a strong success of the long.

2014.02.07 NG has a major run and a major pull back. The momentum is strong and we cannot call it over yet. WTI breaks above U$98. It is time to rally but enery stocks are not confirming.

2014.02.01 NG has a major break up but could not hold above U$5.23 so the trend is weak. If there is no second attempt and successful break up above U$5.23, we can expect NG falls back. WTI has tried the U$98 level but not quite success. This is the middle of the winter. If it does not successful, the February and March price will fall.

2014.01.24 NG has a major resistance break up. As the result, we have a good chance to see higher NG if it holds. WTI also re-approach $98 resistance. If holds, we are going to see trading range moves to $98-$105. These are helping the energy stocks despite all these NG and oil "gluten".

2014.01.17 NG storage charts are now under re-ramp. They will not be updated until re-ramp complete.

2014.01.10 NG is being floored while WTI is also suppressed. NG has run it rally and needs a rest. WTI is about time to move up to the upper of the channel.

2014.01.03 News driven market.

2013.12.27 Oil holds on the gain and NG dipped a bit as the Russian drives down the NG price. This is artificial and will be corrected soon. Oil can hold this level through the winter if not higher.

2013.12.20 It is the weekend before Christmas and the price of WTI and NG rise. NG's price rally is illustrated by the drop of production. There is no major hurricane. There is no tsunami. There is glut of NG supply from the shale NG producer but why the supply falls. One should examining the situation to come up with a straight answer to explain where is the excess. NG should be much higher at the above U$10 level but all these news driven market floors the price. WTI is in the same situation. If this fabricated news market exposed, we shall pay at a dear energy inflation price.

2013.12.13 Strong performance of NG continues as the weather cools down. It is so amazing that NG can stay above U$4.00. WTI is now facing the resistance of U$98. With the winter's arrival, it can break up. However, we should observe that energy stocks are only selectively doing well. Encana is NG producer. It does not do well. Peyto is also NG producer but it is ahead of Encana. Investment should not just look at size; management counts.

2013.12.06 There are two interesting stories developed this week: the NG and the WTI. By examining the production and supply of NG does not show any problem. But when reviews the change of production in comparison with the history, it shows a significant drop of supply. As the result we have a leap of NG price. Now NG has a confirmed sell signal. The rally can be slowed down or reverse. The other story on WTI should be an old dog's trick. After 6 weeks of more than expected supply of oil, the days of supply ranging from 25.3 to 25.8 drops to what the reported dramatic low of 24.7 days. I still maintain the view that oil supply is tight and the surplus is a pure on the paper. After a few month of simulated surplus, the book has to balance. Therefore the price of WTI rises from around U$92 to $97. It is all manipulated number.

2013.11.29 First, WTI has a bottom signal. This has become a very punctual indicator since the WTI is trading approach the support of U$92. With the combination of winter, WTI could trade above U$100 in January. NG is moving to accumulation and the level of surplus is on par with the previous year which force the price approach U$4.00 but there is no signal of bottom or top. The NG can trade under momentum to above U$4.00 in January/February and pull back. Persistently, NG may not be high flyer but many NG producers are.

2013.11.22 Gas price improve slightly as all the snow storm reported. Oil has a nice 2% pop after the EIA report. People may be fooled by this report every week. Long term data is more reliable than the weekly. By any standard, the WTI price holds on the U$90 range for sure. This creates a platform to advance in Jan/Feb timeframe.

2013.11.15 Holding pattern. No direction.

2013.11.08 OBV sh bounds off the U$92 support. It may not fall further much.

2013.11.02 WTI drops below the U$98 support and challenging U$92 when winter is closing. This is the result of EIA report of the week which is historically manipulative to move the price to the other direction of the long term trend for any near term spike. Shortie is winning this battle. NG production is climbing as per last 7 years seasonal average but the price is pulled back. Advance will not happen before the Christmas. Observing the long term price direction of energy stock, it is very reassurance. The price may not improve but the prospect will.

2013.10.25 WTI RSI hits the oversold zone and created an unconfirmed bottom signal. NG production continues the gentle climb. Energy prices are improving slowly which sets up the stage of the January height.

2013.10.18 NG hangs on but oil retreated as the market direction is uncertain. Winter is coming. Volatility will be intensified in next few weeks until mid of January.

2013.10.11 Fundamental is not considered by the market. The market banker (rather than maker) making money by making wind or hurricane. The shortage of oil is finally out and all the tanker at the American's oil terminal appeared 3 yearas ago are all disappeared now. After playing down the oil price to the U$40 now they play the NG to the U$3.00 dollar level. This U$3.00 level is only good for the producer but not the consumer. When all the NG producers are squeezed out by the money lord, the price will be up. NG seasonal price just pops up a bit when the over production is down a bit. WTI should be pinned down quite badly until the delivery is demanded during the mid winter.

2013.10.04 NG has over production. Price dipped a bit. WTI retreats from U$108 but remains above U$100. After the fall, the oil price can move above U$110.

2013.09.27 NG retreat as the surplus shows. The production overshot. The price is withdrawn a bit. Oil falls to a bottom out signal along with the retreat of USD. Oil is way above the 200MA while the USD is way below the 200MA. Strange but no co-relationship. Both energy commodities will move up as we get closer to winter.

2013.09.21 NG production is falling behind for the built-up of winter inventory. The price is firm this week which I would expect to advance further. Oil pulled back and jumped as influenced by the new. The oil falls below the U$108 support. Without proper stimulation, we can see a short term hitting the U$90 range before emerge above the U$100 level as the demand is recognized.

2013.09.13 NG production continues to climb but the price also. Looks like the demand exceeds the supply. WTI holds up well around U$108.

2013.09.06 WTI hopped again over the U$110 mark and stays at close. As the PF chart does not show the flip up, the reading is that the chance to stay above U$108 is not high. Nonetheless, this mean the oil continues to go higher when USD goes also higher which shreds all those U$ up oil down hypothesis. NG has small change but the production continues to go up. This could imply a colder than normal winter. If the accumulation is sufficient, the price could go up but not go wild.

2013.08.30 WTI hopped over U$108 and pulled back. It does not hold above the resistance before the long weekend. The price has been just touched 70 and pulled back just means a better chance to continue to the higher ground. But there should be some possibility to fall below U$104 is key. NG continues the slow climb. We can expect a higher NG price for this winter. All point to a higher energy cost.

2013.08.23 NG production rises along with the price in a relatively cooler summer. The price is going up. WTI back and forth from U$104 to $108. Once break above U$108, there will be serious firework. If it falls below U$103, than it will go into withdrawn. The chance of withdrawn is much lower than the firework.

2013.08.16 NG breaks the down trend. Oil pending to break above the resistance of U$108. NG is too early to rally so all shows a sign to have an energy rally before fall which is too early. If this holds the energy sector will really have a leg goes up until the end of the year which will peak. The Middle East may have some help to oil but not the NG. NG production surplus is actually down. So we are seeing many positive factors for the energy. In the next month, September, we should have a confirm on the energy rally trend.

2013.08.09 NG continues to fall but the production hops up. The dry season could be over soon.

2013.08.02 The development this week is very positive to the oil price. WTI and Brent continue to narrow the spread. During the week, the spread was as small as U$0.02. We can expect the WTI will be a premium over Brent by next year. NG is near the end of the AC season without any major heat wave so the demand will be in winter. As such, the price is at bay but the long term should be very strong when the energy/price differential is in favor of NG when oil is more than U$100.

2013.07.26 A pullback of WTI is a sure correction as it approach the near term resistance of U$108. During the hot summer. the U$108 can be broken but will it hold? NG continues to be weak as the weather is not hot enough to burn off the NG. One must be careful about the reduction in production. NG can be bottom in two months.

2013.07.19 WTI breaks even with Brent interday and the WTI premium holds until the end of the day to end up a U$0.80. This is not necessary the end of the era but it tells the myth that WTI in excess may not true anymore. NG still under pressure.

2013.07.12 Oil has the run up from U$85 for 25% to U$107 and the pullback is normal. In this week, the WTI and Brent spread has been down to U$2. This could be the moment that the WTI will take over the Brent. NG is still weak. It may take one more month to warm up the price as the temperature is not cooperate.

2013.07.01 Oil is overbought but still strongly supported. WTI could take this opportunity to get even with Brent. NG is very stable and staging a rally in 2-3 weeks when it is close to August.

2013.06.21 If we think oil price is artificially high, we should observe that historical fact that WTI was higher than Brent. For the last year, the relationship is restoring from a warping U$20 to the current U$5 premium as shown below. This will shrink which implies the current WTI is justified and will stay. NG will rise but with different reason. The current price is artificially lower but it will restore too.

2013.06.21 Oil seems to have a correction but in fact it is only range bound. NG is actually high by weekly close. Steady hands is key. The oil performs superbly relative to the USD. We should not continue to count USD has a major influence on

2013.06.15 Oil may hold its higher position as the oil cost rises. NG suffered from the excess before hot summer.

2013.06.07 Oil threaten by the Middle East tension. NG surplus spreads the wing. Both went extreme.

2013.05.31 As the attention turns to the financial, oil and gas retreat a bit. Nothing change. Both are range bound.

2013.05.24 NG rebounds back into the U$4.00 level with the supply pulled back slightly but the surplus is on track on the low side. If the supply continues to sit on the low side, the $4.00 level can maintain. Oil remains holding up strong.

2013.05.17 Oil is stable before the weekend. The WTI and Blent differential continues to shrink. Oil demand is surfacing and struggle free from price manipulation because American is exporting. Natural gas surges a bit and holds around the U$4 level. It remains lower in surplus which holds the price around U$4.00.

2013.05.10 Natural gas surplus continues to contract and the result is negative to the NG price. At of last week, the supply and surplus are above the seasonal levels so we can expect the NG price will continue to fall in the very near term. The long term effect could be just negative. The current surplus level tracks the 2011 curve which is in down hill mode until the summer of 2012 after the peak in January of 2011. With the price break below the 50 day MV, it should be cautious. However, the NG producer stock continues to hold up very well. WTI continues to show strength. Between Thursday evening and Friday, the oil price dropped as low as U$93.37 for the future and ended at the near high of U$96.04, a loss of U$0.35. It should point out that the differential between WTI and Brent is diminishing.

2013.05.03 Oil continues to show strong and stubborn hold around U$94. Everytime, it is pushed down, it rebounces. NG is weakening as the supply increase but the inventory should rise to match the summer need. NG price can stay around U$3.90 to U$4.10 until the higher demand of air conditioning season.

2013.04.26 Oil recovers NG falls as the draw down slows. In a couple of week, if the deficit is not replenished, the price will rally again. The long term trend remains up for NG.

2013.04.19 WTI falls but holds around U$88. NG rises to U$4.40. This will be holding in such level for oil. NG has indicated a very badly draw down. The rally may continue further.

2013.04.13 Energy supply seems very steady but the stats does not support it. Why the supply of oil is steady because the premium of Brent over WTI has dropped to U$12 while at the peak it was U$27. NG's supply is closer to normal but still slightly below the season adjust surplus. The price of NG could be plateau out.

2013.04.06 The weather is getting warmer but the production of NG is not ramping up. The surplus model and the seasonal production model indicate shortage. This holds the NG above the U$4. As we move into the late spring NG accumulation season, the price will continue to go up if the LNP does not take more. WTI takes a beating. WTI falls U$4.79 (5%) this week but Brent is worse. It falls U$5.90 (5.4%). At one point the oil price can explode with the summer season arrives.

2013.03.31 Despite of the strong dollar, oil rose about U$4 this week. NG shows a short supply after comparing to the seasonal pattern. Both show advance of the price.

2013.03.22 Oil price stays up with NG price surges before spring. It should be mentioned that oil price stands up very well when USD rally above the 80. NG's supply has reached the normal point but the surplus remains low due to the low production. Until the NG backfill is completed the NG price remains strong. This could continues to the fall because the demand for summer is just around the corner.

2013.03.16 NG production is lower than the standard model. This pushes the price near the U$4.00 mark. If the level does not track the standard model, we can see a price spike by the summer. WTI is steadily leaving the bottom. All driven by news and not much related to the fact and demand.

2013.03.08 At a holding pattern. This is a positive sign that rising USD does not push down oil price.

2013.03.01 NG gets the help of lower production which increase the deficit of the inventory. However there is no confirmed up turn. WTI is not as lucky. Market triggers a sell of commodities.

2013.02.22 Situation reversed. NG holds and WTI falls but WTI is in oversold territory.

2013.02.16 NG weak WTI holds. It is good.

2013.02.10 Cold weather holds the WTI but not the NG. Long term view shows NG is not bad.

2013.01.25 Cold weather has the oil and NG prices. Oil can maintain above U$90 even the Middle East unrest settles. NG will definitely keep the current level. High NG price may not be the right time yet.

2013.01.18 Oil's strength stays so does NG's weakness. Oil is overbought that deserve a correction. NG may rebound very soon.

2013.01.11 Good pop for the oil but NG is weak while the winter is not severe.

2013.01.04 Excess supply causes NG falls but the shortage of WTI pushes it above the $90. NG could be highly volatile by the published numbers so does WTI. Both should be higher and more stable but market maker wants to make big money.

2012.12.28 Getting more stable. In mid-January, we may see some slight upward movement.

2012.12.22 Oil is being pushed by sensational news rather than the fact. When the American is in trouble which they never get out of it the oil demand is pictured to take a dive which ignores the demands from the rest of world. There are key indicators that the BRIC is recovering better than expected. If not, China and Malaysia will not aggressively buying hydrocarbon properties. The NG finally takes a dip on the supply to align with the seasonal trend. This will improve the price in January.

2012.12.14 A spike of NG supply will mean the price could be checked in bay. WTI can remain on hold until New Year. The supply and demand seems no relationship on the surface.

2012.12.07 NG falls and WTI steady. All waiting for the weather to take next move.

2012.12.02 NG enjoy a very good summer rally since April 20, 2012. It hit interday high at U$4.00 despite some inventory surplus. There is a kick down on the inventory before the winter. This is not reflected in the price immediately can kick in a couple of weeks after the Sandy repair is complete which will lead to the more normal consumption of NG in winter possibly around the New Year time. With oil a U$90 level, it is reasonable to thing NG is a cheap alternative. WTI is at a holding position that could be followed by the winter break up.

2012.11.16 Things is bottoming as the temperature falls.

2012.11.10 As the post-Sandy cleanup continues, the energy demand reported for the hurricane period drops. The market price for the NG and old drops. This is wrong reading and the market is misled. The bound is imminent but the market manipulator controls the mass media machine, illusion is projected. The longer this illusion, the harder the rebound and someone will make a lot of money.

2012.11.03 After the Sandy hurricane, the whole North American energy market is in chaos. The NG has a sharp reduction in surplus and the production is also declined which supports the continuous climbing of the NG price. WTI is in opposite direction. This could be the result of the lower consumption due to the destruction and interruption of the power plant. So the myth of hurricane can push up the price may not be as true as always. After all these settle and winter falls, we should see the price at a more normal level that WTI returns to the U$90-$100 level and NG stays just below U$4. All these price actions have nothing to do with the demand and supply but the interruption of transporting the fuel. The consumption report that influence the price is the consumption of the refinery which can jack up the consumer price with lower WTI and NG price.

2012.10.26 WTI falls from the cliff by the increase in inventory that swings without proper audit. NG has the production matching the average in the past. Demand must exist to support the production. All fluctuations are not necessary reflecting the true demand.

2012.10.19 NG continued to be stable above U$3.00. The surplus level continues to climb and the seasonal adjusted level is below the average. The inventory support the price. WTI is not as lucky. It is suppressed down to near U$90. One more month will change the WTI. One should pay attention to the premium of Brent which has been dropped to U$11 rather than $20. This is a sign showing the trend is to balance out both oil price.

2012.10.13 WTI stabilized above U$90. This trough could be short as the weather getting cold. NG's North America supply has peaked before winter. The surplus level seems significantly above the normal level but comparing to the seasonal adjusted level is is under. This supports the continuous upward action of NG. The growth of energy demand is determined in two ways. The first is the normal increase in consumption but this is a simple correlational to the economy cycle. During the boom time, it is higher. During the bust time, the demand will be lower. This relationship is well understood. The other factor is the growing of usage pattern in the underdeveloped countries such as Chandra and Africa countries. There growth will dramatically increase as the equalization of wealth continues. The basic premise is that LNG from NG is the ideal fuel for low utilization consumption such as cooking which fits many developing economy environment. If the NG can break above U$4, the industry will revive.

2012.10.06 WTI slumps but NG gain. Winter is settling in.

2012.09.28 WTI stabilized but NG gone up 15% since last Friday as soon as the mercury drops. NG may have hit the bottom.

2012.09.21 WTI and NG get a wag. Good sign to be slowed down.

2012.09.15 WTI continues to move up 'due to the Middle East situation'. The Brent may be but not the WTI. The Gulf only impact 1.5%. The rally should not be caused by Issac. This is the rumour age. NG supply continue to rise but the price stables. The additional surplus could spell a very cold winter.

2012.09.07 WTI did not move much but NG sank. NG's opportunity is not here. WTI is pending and waiting for a big move.

2012.09.01 Condition for natural gas price improves slightly due to the coming of winter. The hotter summer also help. However we see the production increases so does the surplus which is higher than the adjusted seasonal level. The price may not improve much until we see a colder winter. The NG price sits above the 200MA is a very important trend to keep the price of NG afloat.

WTI holds above the U$90 mark and explained up and down, left and right for all the reasons related to Isaac. Historically, the hurricane will have much higher fluctuation. We should consider this as a strong sign for oil demand that holds up the price. As we enter the heating oil demand season, the WTI price may drop a bit before the year end high.

2012.08.17 WTI rally continues. NG holds the current position.

2012.08.17 A major rebound of WTI but NG sadly sinks again. NG has to wait until November for a better time.

2012.08.11 WTI holds above U$90 but NG dips below U$3. NG's productions remains below adjusted seasonally average which shows demand dwarfed confirmed by the increased surplus from the negative to balance. If the surplus continues to increase, the NG price can continue to dip. Now the NG prices is attempting the cut under the 200MA. This may not collapse the price to below U$2 when the winter is approaching but we should not count on the hope that there is a price rally in winter at or above U$3.50 level. WTI falls from the recent high in April to the current level with a 20% dip. This is a meaningful correction. What will be the next move? The current momentum is in downward direction and winter is closing which will create a seasonal up-lift. The price could maintain if the news is not too adverse in Asia and Europe. A bit of negative news could be balanced out by the fear of Middle East war which should have minimal effect on WTI but heavy impact on the Brent which is U$20 higher than WTI. The WTI is artificially suppressed.

2012.08.04 We need to pay special attention to NG. As far as all the reports saying NG is over production may not be as true as reported. From the Seasonal inventory, we see the inventory is actually near the lowest of the last 10 years. This can either lower production with same consumption or higher consumption with the same production or lower production with the same consumption. Lower NG consumption during summer is not traditionally how the NG is used to support the hot summer. The price shows the low inventory is reflected by low price (below U$2) which should reflect the low demand or surplus supply which is not the case. The key question is how can you have low inventory drives dow the price. This is good for the conspiracy theory of manipulation.

WTI pops back above U$90 is amazinging speculatiove. This is short covering before the weekend.

Other than the NG price rally and then falls below U$3 this weekend, the price of energy is heavily influence by the near future of the economy. Any positive new will drive up the price. This is a strong sign of speculation. So here is the conspiracy theory that under the influence of manipulation, geopolitics, economy and speculation, the whole future picture of energy is not pretty. Price will continue to go up but short term volatility prevails. If market maker can do something wild, the retail investors will be hurt.

2012.07.27 Oil made a round trip to return to the near U$90 level. NG holding by a thread above the U$3 level. NG production deficit has back filled. The NG price could be lower. However, the price of NG producers seem not quite co-related to the NG price. There is a disconnect.

2012.07.20 The reversual of NG and oil sustained to move WTI above U$90 and NG above U$3. The oil movement did not give much hint from consumption news. But the NG surplus charts two two major features. On the seasonal production, the level of production is meaningfully below the average. It is a mystery why the production continues to be low but the production maintained. Perhaps, when the production of NG is multiyears low, it triggers the demand and supply relationship. Or, the NG price has been suppressed but the tight supply forces higher price.

2012.07.13 A very strange reversal, a small one, to the up side. This should be because of the heat. If the consumption continues the winter stock will drop or the price will go up. NG is building momentum to break U$3.00.

2012.06.29 Both oil and natty have a pop under such hot weather. Both will hold the current level until the mercury drops.

2012.06.29 Oil and gas ended strong on Friday. It seems short covering for the North America national days. It should be caution to interpret these rally.

2012.06.22 Oil bounds back to U$80 on Friday. NG goes back to U$2.63. All good but is it OK or not. I think the floor is set.

2012.06.15 WTI holds U$82 very well. NG recover slightly. There is a co-relationship between USD and WTI. Unfortunately, it is inverse.

2012.06.08 WTI challenged U$82 but held above U$84 at the end of the week. NG slowly shrinks back to U$2 util heat wave hit North America.

2012.06.02 The cooler weather stopped the NG rally and the 'easy' of Middle East situation with a sudden gush of excess WTI pushed down the NG and WTI. A very typical man-made market.

2012.05.25 NG rally takes a breath. after 40% gain. This is very impressive. WTI dpped below U$90 but closed the week above U$90. No one want to speculate too much.

2012.05.18 NG continues the miracle. It rose 35% since the bottom. If this is justified by supply and demand that someone has to demonstrate how the deman increase so fast?
WTI is down but not out. It holds well.

2012.05.12 NG has a marveleous recovery since the low of U$1.902 four weeks ago to this week's close at U$2.509; up 30%. Such volatility is definitely not due to supply and demand changes. WTI falls below U$100. This seems to be pattern that does not break the floor of U$97.

2012.05.04 NG is rose from the ash. Oil received the hammer of Thor. Oil is temporary. NG is wait and see; it may or may not sink again; 20% to sink.

2012.04.28 NG continues to be traded near U$2.00. This week it closed at U$2.192. The chart of NG inventory and surplus shows inventory remains about the norm but the production has been significantly reduced from the method cllected by EIA. There is a disconnect between the two numbers. It is either the report is not representative or the source of data is inconsistent. We understand the production increased by accounting for the shale production however the number shown in the chart is reduction. Move investigation is warranted to check where is the descrepencies lie. Any how, April and May are the weak gas price until the high season of air conditioner. WTI has narrowed down its spread with Brent to U$15-16. The puzzle on why WTI is lower than Brent continues. It is not to the oil companies' benefit to have a low WTI unless we understand how the price is used and how Brent is shipped. American Government will prefer lower WTI. WTI is also the price set for the Lower 40 States supply. EIA also harping the tune that demand is lower but the gasoline price is getting higher and higher. There is a co-relationship between WTI and gasoline but the ratio of gasoline to WTI is between 0.024 and 0.034 rather than 0.024 to 0.028 of Brent. Would this imply the gasoline uses more source from Brent than WTI. If this is the case, WTI is not used as much as expected but the higher price of the Brent is used. This thesis has a problem if Brent is really imported because Brent supply is limited. The simple conclusion for the meantime is that gasoline is not as much co-related to WTI as Brent.

2012.04.20 Energy market faces a very distored and highly speculative situation. When the Green people yelling how bad the petroleum products create pollution, natural gas is not really adopted in a very mystery way. Ten years ago millions were spent to adopt NG when the price was U$3-4. Now the price is below U$2 automobile industry and fire generator should all using NG only. But the fact tell us this is not the case. One of the major blocking stone for new fuel adoption (e.g. hydrogen) is the distribuion network. NG can simply distributed using LNG by the existing gasoline infrastructure. Yet nothing happen. One would be very curious about that.

2012.04.13 NG broke below U$2 which is a said story. NG industry is basically killed. Oil holds up well. Unless there is very bad situation, old is very stable able U$100.

2012.03.30 The energy commodities enter the weak period of the season.

2012.03.24 NG is interestingly holding a very low bottom at U$2.20. According to reports, the liquid natural gas is selling a multiple of this price in overseas. The inequality on pricing is unreasonable which could be artificial for benefit of sepcific groups; supress the supply price but the selling price is escalated. This conspiracy theory is supported by the increase in production while price is at record low level when many companies are shut-in their production. WTI is much stablized above U$100. The floor seems set at U$105. Everytime anyting lower than U$106, it will rebound. There is a very important fact that has not been emphasised. The rally of the USD does not suppress the price of oil. The USD Index vs WTI chart shows that the rise and fall may be in synchronized mode but not the amplitude. Oil and USD are detached; so does gold and USD.

2012.03.16 It has been a bad week for NG; last week and the week before. Oil is in similar situation that political storm does not push or lower the price. As a AOSP-USA report indicated, only one oil shock in last 60 years contributed majorly to economic problem. The high volume, about 2x of the 200 day average, implies the demand is mounting.

2012.03.09 NG continues to slump because of the warmer weather. WTI holds well.

2012.02.24 NG went to sleep. WTI roars. Oil will continue high not even the Iran situation soften because oil is returning to normal price rather than riding the tension. NG may have to wait until air con turns on to get higher price.

2012.02.17 NG slightly improved. WTI gains. Trade NG for WTI.

2012.02.11 NG continues to lie flat on the bottom of the shale while WTI hangs on the top of the cliff.

2012.02.03 NG lies low at the bottom. WTI may stay at current level even after Middle East situation resolved.

2012.01.27 NG recovers to last week's closing level after making a dive to 10 years low. WTI holds well around U$100. China demand remains strong energy consumers.

2012.01.21 The NG patients is very sick for no good reason. This time it hurts the NG stocks badly. WTI holds very well but does not advance when the supply is not advancing.

2012.01.14 It is big news that NG falls in the middle of winter storm. Are we challenging the U$2.41 low? It is all sensational news related to the shale gas production volume. WTI is stable and waiting for the price base to form.

2012.01.06 WTI and NG repairing the price as they march into the middle of winter.

2011.12.31 Gold shares is riding thing to be expensive, it reflects on the shares. If NG going to be expensive, it also reflects on the shares but not the NG current price. WTI price is approaching the historical relationship with Brent. This makes the current WTI run more sustainable. The spread is settled around U$12.

2011.12.27 The spread between WTI and Brent continues to shrink while Brent continue to fall.

2011.12.23 Warm weather hurts the NG but the potential Middle East helps WTI. Really? Price of both are being suppressed.

2011.12.17 It is roller coaster deja vu again.

2011.12.10 Dull and no action. There should be a note on the detachment of the energy price and the U$. If U$ moves higher, there is 70% change that the energy will either stay at the same level or move high driven by the actual supply and demand because the real supply and demand has been hidden from the market for a long time. The price will not be influented by the U$ too much. This is a strong indicator of inelasticity of the energy price that support the tight supply thesis.

2011.12.03 WTI back to U$100 and NG is sitting on U$3.50. If the winter does not get cooler, there will be a slight dip but this may not happen.

2011.11.26 As the WTI rallys, the NG rose slightly due to the weather. The WTI's most recent rally deserves more attention. The up is not temporary. It has been hold up well by a single swith. All theory about oil glut should be re-examine why the argument is used without looking at the fact. What was refined at Gulf before the switching?

2011.11.17 The price of WTI used to have a premium over Brent. Since the end of 2010, that premium becomes a discount. The explanation is too much oil pumped to the Oklahoma. Today, the difference reduced to only $8 only. This change is explained as the result of Enbridge pumps the oil in different direction to south of Okalhoma while the oil price is at recent high. The following chart shows the premium started to diminish at the begining of October in a very rapid pace with Brent pulling back slightly despite the rapid ascend of WTI price.

2011.11.11 EIA and IEA agree on oil demand is changing. Supply may be short term excess but not too much. WTI is playing catchup with Brent. Warm weather does not help NG after the snow melts but it will be up in next month when mercury drops.

2011.11.08 Where are we as far as gold and oil is concern? Are we out of the wood? The answer is yes. Both have crossed above the 200MA. This is a strong message for the commodity investors but the under tone is inflation with higher demand of energy. Silver is close but not there yet. So everything seems rosy from technical perspective. How does this reflect the economic crises of country default in Europe? The rally of oil proofs once again the West is not dominating the demand only. Even with the change of free price fuel in China, the demand remains firm.

2011.11.07 Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas wrote in its 2011.11.07 Peak Oil Review reported that "China’s oil companies will be free to set retail prices for fuels under a new government pricing system. For years, Beijing has been slow to respond to changes in international oil prices which have left refiners in the position of selling oil products at a loss when the cost of imported oil rose. Under the new policy retailers can move retail prices freely within a range set by the government. The range which is based on international crude prices was not announced. Beijing will step in only when prices move outside of the range. Since 2009 Beijing has a policy of adjusting retail prices only when a moving 22 day average price of a basket of foreign crudes rose or fell by more than 4 percent." Since hydrocarbon fuel is the major inflation contributor of the Chinese inflation, we can conjecture two things: the rally of inflation or inflation is brought under reasonably control. When the hydrocarbon fuel is set to the free market, the Chinese petroleum companies will cut the loss. Share price will rise. The more important is that China may have acheieved the desired inflation control using a combination of measures and policies. The latest free-floating the fuel price may not be as inflation as it is. This move may be a economic stimulus as well as. By the higher price, it will curb the demand because the domastic fuel price of China and the internal price has a healthy 20-30% difference. By raising the price, the demand can be reduced due to affordability. At the same time, the higher revenue for the petroleum companies will be translated to higher economic development fuel.

2011.11.04 The sudden warm up does not cause the WTI to drop but the NG just fall, just a bit. Now the negative oil news of surplus oil is ignored by the market; even the Greek's default crisis. This is impressive. It should be a side note that although the price of NG is low, individual NG producer can be very high perform. In such a situation, the producer is better than the commodity. Oil should finish its correction as the double bottom is formed. There may not be any pullback until U$110.

2011.11.01 The reality sinks in; the Greek plan is not a plan. It does not only facing the Greek's resistance to give up entitlement but also create more inequality between who can live outside or inside the law of land. The deal is based on the perception that Greek will accept the terms and condition the IMF and ECB laid down without the consultation of the reality. The purpose is to put up a good show to save the skin of the German and Franch banks who hold most of the Greek bond before and during the crisis. China is standing outside the fire ring watching the side show carefully. It is not necessary that China is short of money to save her local government debt; it is the matter of timing. It is not ulgy enough. Comparing this to the plot in John Perkin's Confession of Economic Hitman, the West is doing the job for Chinese. When the debt crisis is here, the stock market retreat. The global stock markets lower by 2-3% and 4% at the low point. For hindsight, last week was the perfect time to sell high. When this happen, the commodities come down as the results of paired trade. Gold did not make any dramatic break up any resistance so it could retreat back to U$1,600 or lower. Silver broke the resistance of U$32; it has 90% staying above the $32 although it looks much volatile. Copper pulled back to just below U$3.50. It would be essential to hold above the U$3.50 but there is nothing to do with the economy. The other casualty include WTI. It sank below U$91. This will be temporary. The major player should be NG. The price keep on pushing up following the seasonal trend to near U$4.00. Worth to mention is platinum to gold ratio has sunken to 0.92.

Updated at the end of the day: While gold dipped below U$1,700, it resurfaces at the day end. Oil did not budge and did the same after submerged below U$90. The stock index did not do the trick to pull down commodities completely. This is specially supported by the HUI which gone down slightly by 1.70. CGSI is up 10.04 2.5% and UGSI only dipped 0.56 0.1%. Choice of the horse is the trick to win the battle.

2011.10.29 It is hard to argue that energy has a dramatic turn on this week, especially natural gas. All ready for the winter? Oil has a double bottom and did not break down. This becomes the end of the correction. NG has an 8% big move on Friday shows something is coming.

2011.10.28 The market performs in a very confusing and out-of-box mode. With the higher debt, the consumer spending will be limited that is the basis for the reduced oil demand. However, oil jumps back to U$90 range with a 4M barrel stock increase. When the market reacts different from conventional wisdom the news or the reaction should be in question. In case of oil, I question the news. The more important story is told by the following chart:

Platinum to gold ration is rising from 0.91 to the level of 0.95 in just in two weeks. The rise is just as fast as the fall.

After few months of dramatic fall of silver, it has broken the U$32 resistance. When it happens, it bolts to U$35. Copper is back above U$3.5. Quietly NG jumps 8% this morning. Is the old man winter here already?

2011.10.22 NG has a out of ordinary development. Its production is higher than the seasonal trend but the accumulated surplus is align with the normal trend with the price in a steady pace. This implies a higher than normal consumption which could be contributed to the weather. If this winter's temporature is forecasted to be lower than normal, we can observe a NG price squeeze this winter. New few weeks will tell. Oil's dramatical recovery shows a high volatility of tug of war between fact and perception. While the perception remains to be American dominating the world demand and it is strinking as opposes to the fact that The BRIC catches up fast and the American is not waning the energy demand. Even shale gas or deep sea oil production seemingly produce a huge cheap supply but the fact is that they will be >$100 is not being shown. Until than how WTI being kept low remain a mystery to me because even EIA has changed to the tune of higher demand in increase daily consumption by 1M barrel next year. The WTI has been kept unreasonable low by more than $20 below the Brent. Why the Arabian agree to sell it as such a low price deserve investigating. A possibility conspiracy theory is that the finance of Arabian is in deep trouble so that they have to sell the oil at much lower price under the gun of the American.

2011.09.30 No champagn but not much worry; only fustration. WTI and NG went up and then fell. See-saw market.

2011.09.28 Celebration has to wait. It is not a good day after a half hearted rally. Yesterday's gain are sent back and more. Market volatility is weighing to the down side. Mother bear is playing with the investors.

2011.09.27 Precious metals have a dead cat bounce; or not. A drop of very 10% without a period of repairing will betray the technical and fundamental analysis. After violation of technical level, repair period must elapse to ensure the wound is healed. When a major drop happens, the supply and demand shows a metastable. To go back to stable equilibrium will also take a lot of time. We should pay very serious attention to gold which at one point leaped about U$80 but at the end of day only return to U$1,650 or up U$22. Silver do better but only stay put at U$31 level. WTI is the strongest. At the dawn of the day, it rests at the gain of 3.7%. All commodities stock slides at the end of market despite strong gain in the morning. The close to 300 point gain of Industry only keeps half of it to have a gain about 150 at the end of the day. Lets do not celebrate yet. Tomorrow will be the same level of volatile perhaps to the down side. Gold stocks indicate the rally in gold is not convincing. HUI down 0.6%, CGSI down 1.6% and UGSI down 0.9%. People are selling on rebound.

2011.09.24 Oil's fall is stopped at U$80, the old supporting level. So it will be fine. NG is wondering between the huge range. Nothing can be improved. It is sad to say the divergence between USD and oil price in reverse disappeared when USD rally. We can just hope the convergence continue when U$ falls.

2011.09.17 Last weeks in-line comment for the chart below this frame was divergence will be reduced. It continues to this week. The 200MA for both the USD and the WTI price are moving in the similar direction with USD turning almost flat. This slight divergence in long term trend make the short term bigger divergence. But it does not change the big picture. Oil has to complete the battle it did not finish at the $90 and $100. The coming winter could help as indicated by the non-incidental hurricance at the Mexican Gulf does not provide a lot of relieve to the oil and gas prive. In a month, the inventory for the winter will be built. We may have seen the bottom. The price will climb. Technically, WTI is peeking to break above the U$89 resistance.

2011.09.02 Are we seeing the turnaround of the oil and gas? Both have not be changed on the demand and supply but the investors' emotional has been motivated from one side of the pendulum to another side. Take oil as example. One week there is suplus and other week is deficit. If it is swinging then this is just normal fluctuation. But entertainysts exerberated the situation to create the fear. Because the mass participation of the retail investors, the market volatility is much over exaggerated than the real situation. As we are now at the end of the summer and hit by a heat wave with the threat of the hurricane season, energy supply should be tighten. Let see what happen. Anyway, oil has recovering to the U$80 level to the high of U$80s. This is positive in light of the Europe financial crisis.

2011.08.27 End of the summer is the hurricane season. We should see the energy price moves to firmer position. Irene may help but so far not working much but the gasoline price jumps.

2011.08.19 Dead in the water; oil or gas. Oil's head and shoulder wins. The fall is halted around U$80. This must hold or we can see U$60. NG is weak. With all the heat wave, it does not push higher.

2011.08.12 Oil bounds quickly from the bottom; gas also lifts itself up a bit when the market tanked. This is not a bad correction bottom.

2011.08.05 It hurts to see both oil and gas are down. Too much manipulation.

2011.07.29 Oil is still fighting the U$100 battle. NG is disappointing but not dead yet if it does not fall below the 200MA.

2011.07.24 Off prime time trading is not necessary the mainstream trading. Yet, it is great time to observe how some people are thinking. As long as the volume is respectable, the trend is tradable. Many worldwide panic started as the night trading of North American and day trading in Asia. The metal world has been returning to the East. So we should respect the precious metal direction. Tonight gold stared off with a high jump of U$18 to U$1,618. By this time, it is settle down at U$1,613. This makes the gold to silver ratio just a hair below the 40 because silver action is vicious, especially next 10 days. Oil hands tight around U$99 no matter what the analysts say. Copper is also very stubborn. What do these mean? The Fed will be in panic mode to shutdown all these to prop up U$. It will repeat whatever is needed to kill the commodities. Only this time, the BRIC is watching with pens and cheque books in hand; ready to buy what is falling from the sky. Will Fed care about the BRIC to mop up the commodities. This is not a question of mopping up to squeeze the commodities price. Last time, it killed Lehmann Brothers which frozen hundreds of billions of commodities in custody accounts. When Fed let open a gap, woozed out some at lower than fire sale price because people need money. These paper commodities have completely detached from the reality but it will drag down the investor without making a dent to the inflation number.

2011.07.22 Gut wrangling weeks on oil but finally it is moving very close to the U$100. This one is a keeper.

2011.07.20 Excitement was cooled down when gold dipped below U$1,600. As discussed in previous notes, the breaking of U$1,600 has no technical significant but the psychological. Now the gold bears can come out to sing and dance. Gold had 3 very active sessions. So rather than short covering, it could be the shorties sell off for profit. On the other hand USD falls to 74 range. There will be money movement which could help the precious metals. But the killer could come from WTI's surge to U$98 range. The judgment call could be made tomorrow. Updated at end of day: The picture enhanced at the end of the day. Gold satisfies the psychologist's demand to go back above U$1,600 with silver over U$40.

2011.07.15 Oil continues its battle of $90. It could be close the end because the release of 60M barrels of EIA oil could not push it down U$90. Natural gas is slipping back to U$4.546. As we are moving towards to the hurricane season, we can see natty back to the U$5 range. Energy is not being threaten by the withering American and European economy because of the BRIC's demand. Technically, oil is at a junction that can either break up or break down because there is a huge H&S and a smaller H&S bottom. If oil breaks down U$90, the H&S wins, it will be down to the U$65 level. If the H&S bottom wins, the break up must hold above U$105. Then we can see U$122. Since the resistance at U$90 is so strong, the down to up probability will be 25% to 75% in favour of the up side.

2011.07.12 Gold is on the first page news headline today. It made the all time high close. This is not a easy task. The U$850 record high in 1980 was interday. At close is at U$540. Today, the close is still all time high in U$ but not in C$. It is only C$4 shine from the record of C$1522. Not a bad day when USD is at 76. Is this the story telling people that U$ is safe heaven and money moves to U$ for wealth storing or there is another reason to have gold shot high with the U$ is high too? It is not just the U$ get rally, so does the WTI and copper and NG. There is bad news; Ireland will need another bailout. Why commodities rise when the economy comes down. Where are the entertainysts? Is this the sign of inflation? If so what causes it? And the more important question is in term of what currency, the inflation is reflected?

2011.07.09 The EIA weekly inventory statistics has become a joke that does not reflect the reality. Trader is not trading according to the supply and demand but the rumour. With all these shrouding the market, the price volatility is unbelievable and analysis does not work for short and mid term. Strategic reserve increase traditionally pushes down the price because the reserve should only replenish when the supply is ample. The release from the strategic reserve will drive the price up because the supply is tight. All these do not work anymore because of the new spin from the entertainlysts. The existing market could be just a whole market manipulation. But in a much longer term, the energy supply is endangered. With all these in mind, oil has show a very indecisive movement. It could be a major fall if it falls below U$90 but a huge rally to U$122 if it moves above U$105 firmly. We should accept the trading range for the meantime between U$90-105. NG had some nice break up but without any reason the green shoots become yellow shoot. But it seems the price is on a long term up trend since the less than $3 days.

2011.07.01 Precious metals are down especially silver is -2.5% in the morning. But the base metals are up considerably like zinc is +1.5% in the morning. The investment thesis theorist may hypothesize that the U$ is stabilized so precious metals are out of fashion. On the other hand the precious metals remain very much above the 200MA. Even silver is 5% above the 200MA. So any loss due to the gain or loss of U$ short margin has to be compensated by selling the precious metals. This raises a very fundamental question why those believe in U$ hold precious metals if U$ is the thing to invest. Or they are actually see the inverse relationship, which is much weakly linked now, so they do the paired trade of U$ and precious metals. With the weak link between U$ and precious metals, someone will get squeeze from both sizes. This is when the stock market has an unexpected rally or dip. This could what happen today. The Dow goes up more than 100 points in the morning so someone got squeeze. When stock market goes up, this is not the signal for prosperity now. It is the signal of inflation as the American or European economy are no good. We also have to be very careful about the price of commodities and see through the fog of deception. For example, Brent crude is now about U$15-U$20 higher than WTI. This is a reverse to decade of tradition that Brent is U$3 under WTI. The explanation is that the Cushing oil hub is glut with oil because it could not ship the oil to the Texas for refinery. So where the hell is WTI (Western Texas) and how far is it from Cushing that make the oil price so much difference. Western Texas supposes to be the place oil is refined. According to Wikipedia, there are 26 refineries at Texas which is about few hundred miles south of Cushing. At Oklahoma, there are 6 refineries. For the price differential of U$15-20, it is more than worthy to truck it. Before the WTI at Cushing is lower than the Brent, the excuse was the floating tank storage that drives the price down. Now that the EIA has to release oil from the strategic reserve to balance the supply. And this is not justified enough to make the price higher. Is this interesting?

2011.06.24 Oil and natty keep their new position. Oil gets whacked no matter inventory goes up or down. Natty does not have much help from the weather. This summer natty may be limping.

2011.06.17 Oil and gas have trade places. Oil does not hold as well. Gas is holding up pretty well but not sell enough to go beyond $5. It may be still on a very slow ascend. it should be observed that oil has a huge H&S.

2011.06.10 The precious natty becomes oil. Natural gas continues to rise in a steady pace for the summer. The oil is one step forward and two step backward.

2011.06.03 Oil is fighting the battle of $110 very hard because it misses the battle of U$80 and U$90. Those two resistance line were cut through like butter. The result creates a lot of speculated trading. Any news will move the direction. This does not changing the fundamental of demand from the BRIC where price control shields the real price by their huge foreign exchange. Natural gas has been forming a very wide base depending where you count. It is breaking above the 200MA and 50MA again. This aligns with the summer behavior. If it does not sustain, this will be a small rally. The momentum of demanding NG could be a surprise in the fall.

2011.05.20 Oil and gas are treading water but not too bad. The downside probability is much lower than upside due to the demand equation from the BRIC is being observed.

2011.05.06 With crude drops U$15, the oil stock should fall freely. The fact is not. They are just fine. Crude's 15% drop may be scary but it could be part of all out attack of commodities. But this time is different because China does not have to hold back. You can sell, China can buy. The confident of future energy price is reflected by the energy stocks.

2011.04.29 NG sustains its upward momentum with a bit of steam let out. Oil engineers a strong pull. This week we see both have a break up; the trading channel for oil and the pendent for NG. The confirmation may come next week. This is not just a temporary phenomenon because we are facing the hot summer and driving season. Energy demand will rise.

2011.04.21 Higher and higher. Even NG goes higher. Oil goes high if the stock falls; oil goes higher if the stock rises. It is going into the feverish state of energy.

2011.04.15 It seems oil will fall below U$100 but no, it bounds to another recent high. NG is also recovering. NG should recover because summer is coming.

2011.04.08 No matter how you cut it, NG should be higher price but the reality is not. Oil breaks the 3 years spell and charging with the help of the news. It could stay on when the Near East and North Africa settles down.

2011.04.01 NG should be the clown this week. It should do better but just frawn. Oil is the hero. It is pressing the U$110 mark but this is only a bull trap although the price should be higher. How could the oil price goes up when the inventory up by 2M barrels. These news used to turn down the price badly. The market maker can swing both until the wing is clipped. If next dip does not held below U$98, we shall see U$110 as support.

2011.03.26 NG should be the hero of this week. It is not just continue to rise but broke the 200MA. This forms a very pendant pattern with a very wide base, almost 13. The following chart shows the price trend floor is around U$4. If this thesis is correct, we see peak gas. Oil holding up the U$100 and no battle of U$90. This could be temporary. When the Middle East situations calms down, the battle may begin. If there is incidence, we see the battle of U$120.

2011.03.20 Energy is never too far from politics. Energy does not control the mobility but also the source of financial. Energy producer rarely bankrupts because it has price power. Saudi got rich but the American oil companies got richer at the beginning of the Twentieth Century because the black gold was sold to the American at dirt cheap price. Nowadays, it is still selling a the below price. Just a simple calculation. The price of oil as about U$1.00 at 1900. After One hundred and ten years and with a inflation rate of 4%, the price will be about U$75. This is based on the ample supply without any additional cost of finding and development; not to mention about the higher expensive oil. With all the additional factors it could easily double the price. Why the second part of the argument is valid? The oil pumped out at the beginning of 20th Century was basically free-flowing from underground or required very simple pumping mechanism with oil was located very close to the surface. This is contrast to the kilometers deep of oil now. This is not a new phenomenon that oil owner want to sell higher price while oil producer want to buy low and sell high. A simple way is to use political power to suppress the selling price and use the pricing power to sell at the high price. The situation can exist if the government support the low production price which could be different from the real cost. Iran was been an oil producing companies with little government owned producer during the Czar period. As the people wanted to take the oil back, there was a political change. Iraq followed but Iraq's oil problem was 'helped' by the West (i.e. American and British not the French who has French oil producer in Iraq) to liberal the country. Libya is just another oil rich country which has many foreign owned oil producers. When the people wants to take back the oil ownership by removing the government that support foreign oil ownership, the Ally moves in. This is Western Shamanism. This is interfering of the internal affair. If American led Western Ally continues to operate this, the community of Non-American Friendly will be grown by the BRIC led by China. However, if the Western Ally does not take action, they will lost the oil field in the Libya case but will not accelerate the lost of those not in the pipeline.

2011.03.18 WTI continues to close above U$100. This is a strong psychological support. NG is quietly rose above U$4.00. Both are showing strength now. WTI could continue to flutter about U$100 +/- U$10. As long as it does not fall below U$90, the foundation holds. NG is building a very wide and strong base. When it moves, it will be spectacular. The NG stocks are moving ahead of the NG price.

2011.03.11 Oil holds the gain but NG is coming back in a very stealthy way. NG supposed to fall because accumulation starts in May but NG stays near U$4.00.

2011.03.05 It is a mystery why NG is sleeping while crude is roaring. With such low cost NG, the generator should run the NG part rather than the oil part. Why don't they do that? The next target will be U$122 which could face a lot of head wind. It is possible that there may be a few correction below U$100 before climbing to U$122. But the battle of U$90 could return too.

2011.03.02 Now that WTI rises above U$100 with Brent above U$110. Is WTI supply in surplus? The following charts show there is continuous sell-off of WTI to keep the price down or the famous word shorting. If the chart is right, the WTI is suppress to keep the price down not necessary glut. Brent continues to rise without the sell-off. When the price is high enough, the shortie will have cover. This could trigger the catch up with the Brent. The short covering can create an explosive rally. The right chart of Brent shows the continuous buying can come to a halt or level off.

2011.02.27 Monday could be the judgment day of many longie or shortie of WTI. Brent continues to rise. WTI could not be held back too long. The supply and demand remains the ruler of the universe. Libya only supplies 2% of the world oil. The rest of the Africa is not the major oil supplier to the North America. The biggest beneficiary are China and Japan. Saudi UAE always claim they can pump additional a few percent on demand. Why there is panic unless oil has been short for a long time while UAE could not pump any more. Matt Simons' Twilight in the Desert reports that Saudi has peaked their oil production. Their reserve is less than they claim. There is no real oil glut. Can the world survive oil shock? We had been enjoying ridiculous cheap oil squeeze by the American. This does not mean it has to be staying there forever. European learns to drive small and more efficient car. American does not. One could not continue to use the influence to keep the price down for their extravagance oil consumption. Move back to the city and don't live in single house; live in apartment.

2010.02.25 WTI could break loose the curse of the lower price than Brent. Watch the NG stops falling.

2010.02.24 WTI price shots up to U$100 and Brent above U$114. So where is the oil glut. Libya only provides 3% of the world supply. It is heavily guarded by the oil companies militia even Qadaffy could not enter so what is the exposure? The exposure could be the pipeline which is not operated smoothly anyway because of the local stealing oil and the insurgence attack. The bottom of all these market panic origin from two pole of information. People being jerked from oil slut to oil supply interruption. The panic was further exaggerated by saying the spread of oil supply interrupt to the rest of Africa or even Arab. These are just pipe dreams. This is part of the market manipulation. Media should be more rational and more analytical and more critical on the facts rather than sensational reporting. Oil supply should be tight all the time. All these oil glut are smoke and mirror to hide the true of oil supply. The market maker makes money by swinging the market. News is the vehicle of the swing. How can we know supply is tight? The WTI contango is always there. Small retailers should be very careful. After the oil, natural gas will also have a major price swing without any change of the fundamental.

2011.02.21 Overnight, the rally of oil and precious metals continues with natural gas lonely left behind. Brent is not traded until later part of the day. Whether it will catch or not will be left to be seen. So far, the sprint of prices are extreme. Copper is going to shoot for all time high again. Gold recovered back to U$1,400 level. The most worth noted is silver. On Feb 9, gold silver ration was 45. Last night it was 42. This morning, it dropped below 42 despite of gold's strong U$14 jump.

2011.02.20 "WTI closed at U$86.20 on Friday while Brent was U$102.52; a spread of U$16. Anyone has any common sense will know that all those 'surplus oil stored on the supertanker just park off the coast' should turnaround and set sail to Europe to capitalize the spread. This spread was not just only a day, a week. It was building up since beginning of January when the spread was U$3.00. Any surplus oil should send to Europe. If someone says that Europe could not use those oil because there is a contract. The contract was drawn when? When it was U$30 or U$40 with a mark up of U$102? These fluctuation is very suspicious. Tonight, the WTI jumped U$5.00 when tomorrow is a holiday at North America. Now, who is willing to pay U$5.00 more a barrel of oil?

2010.02.18 WTI and Brent has an over U$10 split. This is historical. With all the surplus in the floating tanker, why don't they ship to Europe. The price can be controlled somehow in the States to suppress the consumer price index. This will have consequence.

2010.02.11 WTI and NG tank together but not Brent. It holds up very well. Why there is divergence?

2010.02.04 WTI gyrated around the U$80 about a quarter before staying above U$80. It is déjà vu again at U$90. NG remains dull. But not some specific NG producer stock. There is a good mid-term view.

2010.01.28 Egyptian riot helps the energy too. NG is doing OK but the shortie almost kill the WTI. Don Coxe mentions that if the brent continues to be at a high premium than the WTI, the oil will go to Europe rather than North America. The result will jack up WTI.

2010.01.22 NG's weekly chart has shown higher demand. In a small way, it has translated into high price. WTI is another story. WTI leads the Brent price. Now it is behind as much as U$9 this week. At the end of the week, Brent still leads by U$8. EIA has changing the song sheet to higher demand. This is key to long term price.

2011.01.21 Canadian oil producers have a lot of suitors showing up at their door steps today. A few of them has very high volume. This stages a strong rally or fall. It is more likely to be a rally because other than BTE, others are closing higher.

2010.01.16 Is oil rising too fast? From the bottom at the end of 2008 to now seems to be. Short term is deceptive. The following is a chart showing the price of WTI since 1998. The top trend line shows that during the 2009, the jump is abnormal. The current WTI price level is below the trend line. Higher can be expected. The top could be above $100.

2011.01.14 C Oil is hanging on the U$91 level with NG climbing. NG's performance is just normal winter rally. But oil did not go down or rally with the Mackenzie pipeline problem shows the news is barking the wrong tree. Shorter trend is unpredictable.

2011.01.08 Conflicting information drive the oil market wildly to the end of spectrum. You may wonder why no body critics on how come the other extreme (excess supply) is being corrected after someone took the profit.

2010.12.31 Today is the New Year Eve. With 20/20 hindsight, we can conclude the last decade belongs to commodities. The following two charts shows the major leader (so to speak) of the pack. It shows gold has moved in an parabolic manner that closes above U$1400+ for the year. The chart shows a growth more than 5 fold since year 2000. This is impressive. However, if you use the nominal high of U$540 (rather than the interday high of $850) in January of 1980, we see the compound growth of 3.2%. Let do not get emotional about gold bug or not. Gold prices was on a steady rise from 1978 to 1980. Number crunching can give you excitement. If we use the U$175 since 1978, the annual compound growth is 6.7%. This is amicable return. But we also observed that 6.7% may be also the number we are familiar with: great mortgage rate during the 1950, the average inflation rate during normal year and so on. By alleging gold is the best performer of the year, it is fact but we may also taking fact our of context. This also illustrates the importance of asset allocation at different period. Now lets turn to oil. Oil was about U$5 before the oil shock during 1970 (which is about 7 year before the gold historic high in 1980). Today we have oil at U$90. It is 7.5% annual compound growth rate. Is oil price at $90 reasonable. It is because the $5 oil did not start from 1970. You can trace it back to 1920. Then the growth rate is 3.2%. Is this realistic? No it is too low. While rapid rise of oil price will harm the economy but the rise is necessary to reflect the true value of the good. The cost to produce oil in 1920 is far much lower than the deep sea oil or tar sand oil today. So oil still cheap. The question is can the economy work with the $100 oil. The answer will be yes. The demand is there and it is inelastic. In the West, the social structure build on it either the transportation or home comfort. The East is demandingly increases their Quality of Life that demand more energy consumption. So the Arabian will sell either to the West or to the East. There will be higher oil. If we ignore the spike in the chart below, oil is actually rising on a steady trend. Steady trend is the trend the difficult to change. In the coming year, commodities will be growing fast. West has been spoiled with abundant material. When the price is adjust to fairer value, they cry foul because the East what to share it. Gun does not work now. Suck it in.

		High	Low	Close	Volume	Change	%	52w Low	52w High	% of 200 day volume	52w MV Distance
AAV-T	21/Jan/2011	7.320	7.180	7.220	463,247	-0.070	-1.0%	5.690	8.320	88.2%	9.3%
ARX-T	21/Jan/2011	24.75	24.12	24.42	9,794,243	0.12	0.5%	18.770	26.080	1,087.1%	12.8%
BNP-T	21/Jan/2011	28.61	27.91	28.61	4,671,257	0.61	2.2%	22.030	29.500	1,280.0%	13.7%
BTE-T	21/Jan/2011	48.59	47.72	48.00	4,408,222	-0.25	-0.5%	27.720	48.590	932.7%	29.5%
CESI-I	21/Jan/2011	629.608	629.608	629.608	143,665,560	8.08	1.3%	469.057	644.082	1,212.2%	17.1%
COS-T	21/Jan/2011	27.10	26.64	26.99	17,837,148	0.38	1.4%	24.240	33.050	1,058.2%	-0.5%
CPG-T	21/Jan/2011	43.60	43.09	43.36	1,695,407	-0.01	0.0%	35.300	45.600	171.9%	9.0%
ENF-T	21/Jan/2011	17.48	17.29	17.48	24,533	0.23	1.3%	12.000	19.700	42.7%	15.9%
ERF-T	21/Jan/2011	32.81	31.49	31.78	6,284,782	0.14	0.4%	18.220	32.830	1,621.7%	22.5%
PEY-T	21/Jan/2011	19.20	18.42	18.84	4,769,210	0.36	1.9%	11.800	19.750	1,219.5%	20.8%
PGF-T	21/Jan/2011	13.20	12.78	13.00	11,129,410	-0.05	-0.4%	8.500	13.440	1,351.2%	15.3%
PMT-T	21/Jan/2011	4.060	4.020	4.040	318,045	0.000	0.0%	3.780	5.470	59.5%	-13.6%
PVE-T	21/Jan/2011	8.200	7.870	8.090	8,733,462	0.160	2.0%	5.140	8.610	1,515.8%	8.3%
PWT-T	21/Jan/2011	26.54	25.36	26.09	15,874,086	0.57	2.2%	17.090	26.540	1,373.9%	22.1%
TET-T	21/Jan/2011	14.82	14.31	14.50	314,124	0.15	1.0%	7.800	14.820	218.0%	37.5%
VET-T	21/Jan/2011	46.50	45.00	45.66	395,865	-0.13	-0.3%	31.250	47.590	178.4%	21.1%
ZAR-T	21/Jan/2011	21.50	20.89	20.89	86,551	-0.39	-1.8%	16.990	22.830	170.8%	8.3%