2010.08.27 It is a tough time for the uranium stocks. On one hand, carbonhydro is expensive and CO2 causes people to seek alternative energy such as nuclear which has been used half century. The Achilles' heel is the huge capital required by the uranium industry. When capital market is tight and hydrocarbon is low hanging fruit, it is very much desirable to do minimum. So far the uranium stocks are running sideway and this could continue for years. So the benefit is it remains lying low which is good for accumulation. But patient is required.

2010.08.20 The index plateaus. This is the vital moment. It has to break up above 200MA to maintain the momentum. The OBV shows the steam was let go a bit and now it is accumulated. The scatter gain/lost performance pattern is much more towards the gain side. There is a 40% to improve. Why 60% deteriorate? It is caused by the bad market which means bad demand and capital supply.

2010.08.07 As the stock market tanked, so does the uranium stock even the yellow cake improves slightly by U$0.50. The index may have a better chance to hold up if the OBV could break above 200MA. These stocks are under selling pressure.

2010.08.02 The overdue update of the CUSI index to unify the manual calculation and the automated calculation has completed. Now the PF chart and the index are all the same. The members are also update to reflect some information enhancement. DEJ is retired because it sold its uranium holding. Three new members are added: FIU, HAT and UWE. These are dog and cat when they move, we know the market is recovering. Last week was a good example. Many of them moved 10% one day. After this update, the reality of falling uranium stock sector is much more reflected. During the 2007, Denison is about $15 and Uranium One touched $16. Today both are floating between $1-$2. A drop of 80% in value while some such as Uranium Participation are pretty buoyed. I hope there are now more explorer and developer than actual producer. This composition is intentional to reflect the declining of the production which needs much more exploration.

2010.07.30 It is unbelievable that the index closes above by the week. At the beginning of the week all index member almost non-discriminately rally. By the end, there were a lot of pull back. We could separate the man from the boy.

2010.07.28 While gold and gold pull back, uranium has a sudden up movement. The price of uranium oxide has jumped three days in last two days and today in this order: U$1.25, U$2.00 and U$2.50. With such a jump, the uranium stocks are very excited for a few days and finally settle down. CUSI has lower by 0.95 or 1% after going up 10% this week and about 3% during the last 2 session of last week. Uranium is very inactive on the COMDEX market. The volume is low. Now the UX is above the 80 RSI, we may see some pullback or sideway action. This is not necessary the best time to jump in.

2010.07.23 It is more than just one week event. The OBV is up and the index is up. The ROC of 200MA cross above 200MA. These are good buy signals.

2010.07.17 The OBV has a change. It moves up with a weekly gain of 4 points. These confirm a buy signal 9 days ago.

2010.07.09 When you see the average volume between interval is higher than the peak or trough, it means the trading is in opposite of the price action. If there is a bottom, we should see a bottom high volume. We are not there yet.

2010.06.12 The prospect remains weak.

2010.06.12 Two 200MAs point out the bottoming process is not very successful. On the other hand, volume in last week has doubled which is a necessary condition for bottoming to succeed. With the rising RSI, the situation is strangely deviated from the market trend. Since the index resumes to descend, it would not be the best time to dive-in in general. The moment of consideration will be the time 200MA crosses the index.

2010.06.05 No major change of direction but there is some sign of slowing down the death spiral as OBV turn up a bit. No definite action.

2010.05.28 The down trend continues with struggled bottoming. There was an attempt to turnaround this week. Whether it can hold will be confirmed in next week.

2010.05.21 We had some green spout last week with the index got a weekly gain. As the market bear comes out this week the gain is wiped out. It is normal. The stimulus money has not hit the uranium market yet. With all these negative events continue, the 200MA has become very negative. We may have to wait until fall to see any change.

2010.05.07 Bear forces both the index and the OBV down. 200MA confirms the downward.

2010.04.24 The index continues the bottoming with a sight up side along with the rising OBV. Now we have to wait for the 200MA to confirm the bottom out.

2010.04.16 Bottoming may be meaningful but the up side is very fragile.

2010.04.02 We have seen a meaningful bottoming but all these rely heavily on the available of capital market, especially the North America capital market until the East invest in these North America stocks like the Denison. Until then, these recovery are questionable.

2010.03.26 This week the index bottoms out at 99.86. The OBV bottoms out on Thursday. Weekly change is a decline of 4 points. The bottom remains fragile.

2010.03.19 Chart shows more weakness and the trend is not friendly. The buy signal is questionable.

2010.03.13 The chart pattern showing a weak bottoming but the bottoming process has been a long while. This Friday, the chart issued a confirmed by signal (not early buy) which indicates a bottoming completion and RSI has recovered from the bottom of 16 to 21. So this is a good test for the PF analysis. Consider the CUSI drops 48%, the correction is deep enough to end but wishful thinking is not a factor in the investment decision.

2010.02.19 There is no direction or leader among the uranium stocks. Each of them has their unique problem. As the result, the market remains weak and pending. The low volume is helping to prove everyone to be wrong up or down. As the psychology turns to negative, it will be much closer to the true bottom.

2010.02.06 The turmoil of the stock market and the credit worry in Europe should be a big concern for the uranium industry. Normally, this unsettling will create a black vale on the uranium stock because of its long term speculative and credit intense requirement. But this may have been reflected by the index a couple of weeks ago if the market reflects the future or no thing has been discounted if the index is lagging the situation. The worse of the index happened last week when the RSI sank to 9 and has been recovering since then. On Friday, there may be a dead cat rebounce to create a non-confirm bottom. Next week would provide more insight. For the meantime, it is critical to ignore the noise.

2010.01.22 The market correction extends to the uranium stocks without exception. However, the OBV does not show much of dumping which is a plus.

2010.01.15 Condition remains difficult but improving. The bottom has formed. More base building may be needed but nonetheless the bottom has been hit. Volume remains low to prevent any break up however the trend has turned up with the crossing over of the 200MA, the trend is friendly.

2010.01.09 The turnaround is more evident. In the PF chart, the turnaround has been confirmed and validated by the OBV. All these activities have nothing to do with the fundamental which is positive. The only influence is the market sentimental. Perhaps this is the place where fundamental and technical fail the investor miserably because using one without the other would be dangerous. These are indicators which do not quite compatible. Some fundamental parameters are short range and some and long range. There is not a single test to tell which way it swings to even for the same indicator. Ron Meisel says that never asks a technician when and what together, only one thing at a time. Should we have a bottomless war chest, we could play this game to win. Otherwise, history could tell use the safer way.

2009.12.31 200MA maintains a slight up trend. CUSI Index is very close to cut to break above the 200MA. The OBV is turning around slightly. A positive sign for a uranium turnaround on the condition of inflation and China maintains her prosperity.

2009.12.25 The CUSI index improves slightly before the Christmas which is or close to the year end settlement transaction date. OBV also improved slightly. Hope the year end tax lost selling is the end of the dumping.

2009.12.19 This may not be a typical V recovery but it certainly looks like an Elliot W process. There is a big bottom formed and there is a small bottom formed recently. The question is whether we are going to form a small bottom before going up or going to form a big bottom before going up. The OBV has shown fading of confident but still hanging on which could swing both ways. If the economy does not improve then downward is higher probability. Should the stimulus pours in, the upward is more probable. However, the stimulus may be pouring at the East rather than the West which could potentially benefit the smaller producer (e.g. Korean power company took on Denisen rather than C

2009.12.11 There are two negative indicators that point to a downward trend. The PF chart shows a negative bias direction that if the H&S is not formed we are having a bottom H&S. Sitting on hand could be a good strategy especially the rate of change remains negative (falling).

2009.12.04 After a V recovery, the uranium stocks faces a sudden gold correction. Uranium up U$2.50 which is a strong indicator of strong demand. Everyone must be patience.

2009.11.20 In the face of a sinking UxO, the index is holding up this week and the dumping of the shares has come to a very slow bottoming. If the market continues to hold up, the investment into the capital heavy industry will restart. Looking at the big picture, if there is any chance to create a double bottom, we can see the rally but it has to be very patience.

2009.11.13 The index's 200MA is bottoming but the 200MA of the 200MA is peaking. The bottoming could take a long time.

2009.11.06 A significant drop of U$3.00 for the uranium oxide trigger some ripple in the pond of uranium stock. In general the stocks are still holding. 200MA is turning down. Not a good sign.

2009.10.30 Yellow cake jumps another U$1.75 this week to just under U$50. Uranium stocks took a beating by the deteriorated market. But the PF chart indicates a bottom. Although the price is turning level and bottoming but the OBV does not confirm. It shows dumping.

2009.10.23 Yellow cake continues to ascend. There is another jump of U$1.75. The weakness of U$ does not contribute significantly to this. We could firmly believe the change is market action whether it is speculation or supply/demand. A combination of U$4.00 jump does not improve the stocks significantly. Obviously, the stocks were leading. Now could be the time to pause. However, the spot market should be the driver of the whole uranium stock market because spot drive the future and the future drives the potential earning of the uranium stocks. The Australian Dam Mines problem created some knee jerk reaction at the beginning of the week but smooth out at the end of the week. This educates us that incidence are trigger but cannot be driving factor for long term. However, the Cigar Lake, Uranium One's sulpheric acid shortage and then now the Dam Mines tell a story that uranium mining are difficult with multi-dimension of collaboration. A company with multi-production may have chances for more problem but also have the chance of more steady income in long term. Yet the growth will be low. The growth on those have concentrated products that meet the demands in the market.

2009.10.16 Yellow cake jumps U$2.50. Is it because a weak U$. A possibility but it could be seeing future demand. If it is so the stocks do not respond. The index is now hitting on the up trend line with pretty flat OBV. We need to watch whether 200MA is violation confirmed.

2009.10.10 Since the peak in May 2009, uranium stocks do not participate the rally as much as the peer. It is in a trading range. But the max-min scatter chart showing a trend to moving higher. This could be the help from the rebounce of the UxO.

2009.10.04 The uranium stocks get not much help from the stabilized yellow cake price which up 75 cents from a fall of U$2.50 last week. The situation is mainly driven by the market condition. The internal of the stocks are generally weak. With the fear of the capital drying up, the panic could sink in this time. At the same time, the capital raising campaign does not provide any comfort to this sector because the function for uranium industry is far ahead and intense. It is not supported by the corporate capital market. Rather it is at the country levels. The continuous news on weak China economy diminishes the hope of realizing the nuclear reactor projects which is unfound doubt. China needs the electricity as much as the jobs created to survive. Nuclear plant for China is not a growth story. It is a surviving story. Similar to this is the nuclear plants to be built in Europe. Europe's energy security depends on the construction of nuclear plant which uranium supply from Canada, Australia and United States. The American is also have the same agenda but the uranium production seems at a gridding halt due to environmental issue of storing the radioactive waste. So the long uranium demand will be high and ferocious. But how to reach that without fallen into the Russian bear's palm? When the knot is untied, the stock could rally. This could be a few months time.

2009.09.26 At the end of the week, the stock could not detach from the price of the yellow cake and the market. Only some individual shines. In general, it does not do well. The selling is also increase considerably. Consider the leverage nature of the stock to the UxO is about 2 times, the stock decline about the same as the UxO can be considered as a better scenario. If the UxO continues to fall next week or not turning around, the stock decline could intensify until the economy improve. Should there be a double dip, the influence will be the capital availability. Should light at the end of the tunnel be visible, the side stepped smart money may invest in.

2009.09.22 Yellow cake drops U$2.50 this week while uranium stock marching north. A strong contrast.

2009.09.20 The stocks may be moving ahead of the yellow cake and demand of the West. Since China is planning to build 4 nuclear power plant last and this year, the demand is slowly resuming despite of the yellow cake lost half dollar.

2009.09.12 The index does not follow the cue from the yellow cake to descend. The OBV is doing the same. The text book explanation is that accumulation is at work and the turnaround will happen sometime in the future. So lets wait and see. The current correction has fallen from 197 to 123 or 37%. The last severe correction was in 2008 which dropped from 328 to 70 or 78% in 6 months. Uranium stocks are not acting in exact the same way as the market. During Feb 2009 to May 2009 when the market experience the V hammer, the CUSI rose from 94 to 197 or 102%. Is it leading or lagging? The index fell from 146 to 94 from Jan 2009 to Feb 2009 or 51% in 34 trading days in advance of the March bottom. Uranium stocks may be leading.

2009.09.05 Two observations. The first is the turnaround of the index. The second is the turnaround of OBV. From vertices to vertices, the OBV is increasing. In between, there was a dip. RSI has fallen to 27 on Wednesday and then recover. This is the second attempt of the RSI turnaround after the attempt before this week. So there is a double bottom RSI. Unfortunate, the capital market is tight. The large capital requirement for uranium industry remains a questionable cliff hanger.

2009.08.29 After the peak, it comes the calm and doubt rises on the continuation of the uranium stock rally especially when the economy's near term is in doubt and UxO is down U$1 this week. The upward momentum is weak and CUSI RSI hit 29 on Thursday before rebounds to 32 on Friday. The chart shows an early unconfirmed turnaround signal on Friday and needs a couple more days to confirm the slide from May 4's 197 to current's 130 level. This is a pull back of 33% after a run of 108% gain. The OBV indicator faithfully showing the profit taking but not massive sell off until most recently the selling accelerated a bit; a safe practice. Some stock have done work than 33%.

2009.08.22 The uranium stock market is fairy quiet. The volume is low but OBV is holding up despite of the price drifting downward. This indicates some money exit but not an exodus. Is patience a stupidity or smart move. We may know it by November after the awful months of September and October.

2009.08.14 A small drop in yellow cake and the good new from Cigar Like drives many uranium companies down. The OBV for the CUSI has a dip so the rally may be finishing but for sure not going up for the meantime.

2009.08.08 Yellow cake spot price finally have a better week after all the negative news on supply. Demand is improving along the line of China and Europe nuclear generator growth. During this dull market and seesaw state any indicator would be interesting. OBV is the tea leaves now. There is a steady downward slope developed for the current period which shows distribution. This could be the peak but the RSI is about 50. Should CUSI peak at 50 the market is very weak. If the buying becomes steady with higher UxO price in near turn, the trading range could be broken upside. While fundamental has not change, the short term direction is dominated by the market sentiment. If the major indices can continue the rally, uranium stocks will be revitalized. CCO is a good example. Many juniors support this thesis.

2009.07.31 Performance is wild. It is not converging. The UxO falling prices does not help either. So now is the time to build the base or bail out?

2009.07.25 Does OBV's accumulation true? The trend is up. There may be some truth but the general volume is low.

2009.07.18 Just after a few distribution days, uranium stocks are heated up by the acquisition of North Continental. OBV moves up again.

2009.07.12 It looks like a lot of trading at peak and trough and in between. OBV study is added. It shows a downward trend or distribution started after the recent peak.

2009.07.04 In the last couple of months, the bottom of the index trends upward with the top also trending upward. the volume is continuously increasing at a level even higher than the great rally during 2007. With all the nuclear power plant news subsided and the uranium spot coming back, all show a believable rally.

2009.06.27 One bottom does not signal the end of a decline. This week we have the V-shape recovery. It may be a turnaround. Other interesting feature is higher volume, average and at PV. This usually the characteristic of either a peak or valley. The whole situation looks like a massive accumulation. If it is a massive dumping, price will be killed. The max gain/lost shows a bullish trend (red dots are closer to the 0 and green dots are much higher above 0). The room of improvement is to form a base.

2009.06.20 After triple jumps, it may be time to take breath. The current consolidation with 200MA point up is not a negative situation. With 50% gain in a few months and uncertainty in the summary, it is possible to be in holding pattern for awhile. In fact, the distance between the index and 200MA is so apart that it has a fast collapsing potential. This potential is mitigated by the strong upward momentum of both 200MA and the derivative of the 200MA. The volume has shrunk on the downward journey but still strong.

2009.06.13 Uranium stocks is in a consolidating mode. Another break up may happen in the near future.

2009.05.29 Technically, if the index forming a high pole by keep on rising, then it is dangerous. In fact we have the high pole already. The index has a correction at RSI 49 while this correction has lasted 19 trading days. So will it collapse? All the news points to a high expectation. We also have to understand the driver of the rise and fall. There are two stocks in the lime light: Denison and Uranium One. Denison fixed its balance sheet while Uranium One stabilizes its production. However, when Uranium One has questionable asset, people are taking the profit. The litmus test will be where this correction halt. If it halt above 145, we still have a bull trend. While the commodities are in a tear, the probability of maintain the trend is higher than turn bear.

2009.05.21 A third base is building.

2009.05.18 A 10% jump in UxO price creates a frenzy for the uranium market. This time the market is quite ahead of the UxO. The most important thing is no big sell off. So the huge volume generated for last few weeks proofs to be pouring in the money.

2009.05.10 The continued rise of UxO price pushes the uranium stocks. It may also ride with the bear market rally. Will it detach the bear market rally, it will remain to be determined. The index shows a lot of selling at the recent top.

2009.04.24 Excitement carries on. Trading very active.

2009.04.18 DML got a boost from the Korean investment. Does it mean the turnaround? It is just a few tens of million which does not mean much for those big companies but the bet by the CEO is a shot of confident. All member stocks continue to hold up well.

2009.04.10 If stock market is a time machine for the future, the uranium stock must telling use nuclear fuel will be in high demand despite it may not happen soon. The spot has been down U$2.00 which is 5%. But there is not visible weakness for the uranium stock. Even DML recovered quickly after the announcement of discovery. Is the market discounted the credit crunch on the mine development and nuclear plan building cost? Or is it just dead cat rebounce after a near death experience? We are still talking a recovery of 35% of the drop from the top.

2009.04.04 Uranium stock's rally seems tie to the bear market rally. If so, caution has to be exercised. If not, the second break up is forming a base.

2009.03.28 Uranium stocks are definitely leading the action for the prosperous future. It is no doubt that nuclear energy will be big. It is also important to recognize that the capital requirement for the nuclear generator is huge. The current capital market is not really in the best shape to support it. But government is going to spend big time. Will this benefit uranium industry which will see the fruit in 10-20 years. Uranium power payback is a mid-term range if not long term range. The immediate beneficiary will be the builder not even the actual nuclear reactor. The reactor could be ordered by will not be delivered 5-10 year down the road when the site is built. The delivery of the fuel will follows. Uranium stocks had a strong run up to 250. Now it is at 110. There are two conflicting facts that have to be resolved. The first is to recognize the 200MA is still in down trend. The second fact is that there are two break out to the upside and holding. The safe play is to wait at least we get a one half recovery which is (253.38-50.38)/2 = 151.88.

2009.03.20 Despite the falling of the UxO spot price, the stock is doing very well. This is the second breakup. These are strong break up.

2009.03.14 There is a change for the index this week. With the rise of the financial, the Uranium stock index just resume its level position. This remains in a non-decisive position rather than confirmed rally.

2009.03.07 The index is weakening. There are many knee-jerk reaction to the building of the reactors. Government also announce the support of energy reforming. Yet the actual funding does not appear. It may be too much to bring out the champaign.

2009.03.01 The index bounds back just under the 200MA despite of the downward trend. However, the volume does not follows through. Very cautious.

2009.02.21 The trend line turns south everyday this week. Very cautious.

2009.02.15 Defying the misery in the spot market, uranium stock is going strong.

2009.02.09 Uranium stocks started to decline at the beginning of week but return to rally after Norway declares they will revive the building of nuclear generator. From technical, the declining triangle now changed to a channel with a strong breakup. The breakup holds well and again forming a bottom and possibly a horizontal channel. Even the 200MA has significantly improve to a more gentle slope down. Brave soul may do their brave act.

2009.01.31 In the face of a falling spot UxO price, the stocks are holding up very well. The spot dropped from U$55 to U$48, down U$7. Is it a false rally because the picture is contradicting?

2009.01.23 Recovery of commodities price could push the uranium stock higher. But the core question is where is the big money to build the new reactors? No money, no demand. Remember, these demands are 25 or at least 15 year away.

2009.01.17 Spot price drops U$2.00 but the index holds its position. The confirmation comes when the trend line level or become positive. For the meantime, the index sits above the trend line is a good start.

2009.01.10 A major break up maintained. So it deserves more attention.

2009.01.02 A major break up this week. The volume is only high for a few contracted low price beaten up; not even CCO is at high volume.

2008.12.12 The index is trying to form a bottom. But a bottom cannot be formed if the MV is pointing steeply downward. Caution is the operative word.

2008.12.07 Rather than forming a double bottom, it may be a head and shoulder.

2008.11.30 Yellow cake has come back from the trough. The CUSI has formed a double bottom. What we have heard is shutdown of production one by one. The production is considerably reduced which can drive the price but the revenue precipitate big time. When the bottom line is lower, share price could not go up.

2008.10.01 The credit crunch may show its impact on the finance intensive uranium industry. The drop in price reflects the weak demand.

2008.09.26 Damage continues.

2008.09.20 Keep the cool. Bull market does not start when everyone dive in. Volume is actually down on Friday when the price jump but still high. This may be the right movement for the bottom. But it is more likely a dive in because it is much higher than normal volume.

2008.09.14 The rebound of gold price stimulates the uranium stocks. It sounds impressive recovering. Many are double digit gain in one day but you have to remember they are down 60-80%. A few quotes will just make that gain. It is not over until the financial is over which is a long way out.

2008.09.07 The flip-flop continues.

2008.08.30 The turnaround now becomes obvious. Volume also supports the turnaround but not very strong. One has to observed that some uranium stock exploded 40 times. During this severe correction, many has shrunk by 90%. Why not shrunk by 40 time? Because many have advanced the exploration, the mining and producing. Some withered.

2008.08.24 Bottoming?

2008.08.16 The uranium stock universe cheers when Cameco announces they are stopping the de-watering of Cigar Lake -- to assess the situation for next action plan. Do not forget, the spot price did not really improve during the Cigar Lake problem. Real demand is held back. In a longer term, unless uranium industry starts to use nuclear power plant, their cost is subject to the rise of energy cost. They are the victim and not necessary the beneficiary.

2008.08.11 Nothing change.

2008.08.03 Let's do not argue with the technical and let's do not argue with the fundamental. Side line could be a good strategy to handle the bear market. I could not emphasis enough the huge capital requirement for nuclear power station. Without the money, the demand is not there to support the rally.

2008.07.26 Talk about market has its own mind. UxO has been stabilized for the last two weeks. I am not sure about the bottom because there is not much of actions. But the stocks are anemic.  Every time one stock pops up, it will be hammered one or two days later. It looks like people are exodus. It may be a small pocket of investors but the negative vibe is here.

2008.07.21 The index falls below the trend line may not be important but the bottom has low volume. It spell not a true bottom.

2008.07.06 Bumpy road.

2008.06.27 The charts have indicated a bottom has formed for the uranium stock. There may be a break-out to the up side. Should we add uranium stock to our position? This is a very personal decision. Technically, there is an early but not total confirmed turnaround. Fundamentally, the market is in a flux. Papa Bear (Don Coxe's term for most severe bear market action) could be coming out as the American financial and many sectors are impacted by the credit crunch and devaluation of U$. The general market condition should also be taken into consideration. We have seen big sympathetic fall of the Canadian market along with the American market. This is simply fact of life. No market is independent anymore. Investors are investing across the globe.

2008.06.15 US financial market influences the precious metal market. The precious metal market and the credit crunch influence the uranium market. Now that money is so tight and attention directed to the near term energy source - oil and natural gas, uranium is really ignored. The market may be staying low for the summer.

2008.06.07 When the fundamental is not good, you cannot expect a great week for the stock. Uranium spot continues its downward journey. If stock represent a future, then it should go down further, even when the stocks are so beaten up. The 200MA is flattening. This is a great sign. But in short term caution is the key operative word.

2008.06.01 Uranium stocks has a performing week during the turmoil of the commodity. In general, the downward trend looks like has been broken and even a small peak (good behavior) has been formed. It is even more interesting is that the 200MA is trying to level. The 200MA has climbed above the 200MA of 200MA. This is a positive confirmation of the trend.

2008.05.23 The index and the index MA charts look very encouraging. The break up is fast and furious.

2008.05.16 Have we got fun yet? May be. There is small sparks. Spot falls to U$60 which is half of the peak. Using the 50/50 principle, now is the critical moment to determine break or make. So why the hurry. Some uranium stock may leave the gate. If there is a rally, it will be multi-years. It does not hurt to be a bit more patience especially the base is not built. My indicators only show the fall has coming to a very slow move.

2008.05.09 Have we finish the falling trend? Looks a bottom is finally put in. Will there be firework?

2008.05.02 The spot market stabilized a bit but the commodity market has an exodus. As the result the uranium stocks are down in sympathy. In the coming months, it is either the sell in may go away or fireworks.

2008.04.28 The spot market does not support higher uranium demand theory. This may not be the true story because the capital market is tight. Uranium stocks are now negative bias. The grinding may take some time to build a bottom.

2008.04.20 The spot market continues to slide which could be caused by the tight capital market. The biggest demand sources are China, Europe and US. As the fear of quality of investment and energy security concern rising, the security of energy supply from nuclear power plan will be obvious and overcome those McCarthy type fear; reality meet fantasy. For the meantime, the individual uranium producer is struggling with all the trouble. This is a great opportunity for us to identify which one has strong infrastructure and great management that could tackle unforeseeable problems rather than fire fighting. Cigar lake is a long time problem mine due to its geology. If we can analyze how Cameco handle it we can determine whether bigger producer in the world is the good enough factor to invest in it.

2008.04.17 Uranium stocks have a change of mood; it is moving sideway rather than down. At least in the short term the triple waterfall action has been halted. The bottoming process may be starting. The worst would be a spike which would repeat the November 2007 rally which kicks off the triple water fall. The concern is legitimate because the yellow cake spot has fallen U$3 this week.

2008.04.11 From the 200MA study we can see the chart trying to go sideway and forming a base which is about one year old. The translates to a trend to trade below the 200MA for the index. Most recently, we can see the best performance has been spectacular which shows some fire based on nothing and falls on news. Technically, the situation does not improve until the index's 200MA reduces its slope. Fundamentally, it does not improve when capital is flowing. None has happened.

2008.04.05 When price continues to fall, someone will say it is the time to buy because price is very low. After many entertainysts say that one will be right. The other camp will say it is a falling knife; don't catch it. Technical analysis emphasizes point of inflexion and turning. Fundamental analysis stresses the value. When the short term demand reflected by the spot price is low, it supports the triple waterfall track of uranium stocks. It is no need to argue with the market. The macrotrend does not have to align with the microtrend. From the daily performance data, we see the spread is between -20% to +20%. Should one stock have consistent performance, it will be double or triple in a few weeks. Until the meridian of the performance spread is more positive bias it may not unveil a upward turn. The spread tells us that the swing is wide.

2008.03.30 Everyone should read Murray Pollitt's wonderful monthly March 2008 Market Letter to his client then they understand why invests in uranium stock must be selective because there is only less than a dozen of uranium mine in the world but 1,500 uranium stock listed on TSX/TSXV. For the same reason, you should also invest in uranium which is just like diamond which everyone understand why it is so expensive because of its rarity.

2008.03.22 Stock market is a time machine for the future. In the near future, uranium demand has reached equilibrium that reflected by the falling price. To move higher it must have new demand which will come from new generators. North America and Europe have plan for new generators but the capital intense project is up-held by the credit crunch. We yet to trust this is the great opportunity for Arabia, China and India to build their nuclear generators to use their FX. The most recent fallen FX could be the catalyst of long term uranium boom.

2008.03.07 No Champaign. The break up attempt failed. Decline continue as a group but some is doing worse than the others. Consider the demand is real as more nuclear reactor applications have been submitted but the capital intensive project may not get the money going in short term. It is not necessary to way until the credit crunch is over. The nuclear generator will be great investment so it will get the capital as required. As soon as the moment of visible clarity shows up, uranium demand will leap forward.

2008.02.29 It looks like something may change but the time may not arrive.

2008.02.23 The uranium stocks continue the volatility. The struggle may not be the sign of bottom but the fluctuation before a fall. On the other hand, the jumping could mean another lift off.

2008.02.18 Are we seeing the bottom? May be. It could be the triple waterfall.

2008.02.10 The low has been challenged and the trend continues.

2008.02.02 Like Dow Industry, the break down continues. The sharp rally shows support. The rebound is strong but the weak spot price put a lid on the upward pressure.

2008.01.11 Look at the chart above you could see fluctuation volatility. With the main market not performing, sideline standby is no exception for the uranium stock.